US Prez Election 2012 Thread - Opinions and Discussions

[Tero]

Perry has holy roller connections, covered in this video
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26315908/#44098787
after 3 minutes

[Ian]

But how can the electoral process be tweaked so that we get back towards seeing a bell-curve-looking Congress, one that better reflects the public? I'm open to ideas.

I don't think you've established that the Congress (a) doesn't accurately reflect the public, or (b) that it was ever a whole lot better a reflection of the public than it is now.

Ugh. Must I really establish what should be perfectly obvious? That's going to take some doing, posting polls vs voting records and stated positions on various issues and so forth. Maybe I'll bother sometime, though I don't think you really believe that this Congress is an accurate representation of the public; I think you're just disagreeing with me because that's what you do with posts. That's fine, but I'm not going to undertake the amount of work necessary to establish this fact today.

Have no doubt whatsoever - the political center is terribly underrepresented in Congress right now, and as you like to point out (via discussing the importance of Independents), that's where most of the public resides.

Coito -
Whaddya know, I happened upon a website where somebody did some very nice graphs to illustrate what ought to be blindingly obvious to anyone who follows the beltway (and who is honest about it): in Congress, 1) the political center is virtually nonexistent, 2) Congress is badly polarized, and 3) the 112th is not only worse than before, but it could very well be the most polarized ever.

This website scales the liberal and conservative scores for congressmen and senators. http://www.voteview.com/dwnomjoint.asp After having a look at the method used, I'd say it's quite thorough and most definitely non-partisan. Another link:
http://www.voteview.com/polarizedamerica.asp

So here's a few interesting things the data shows:

First, the 112th Congress is terribly divided along partisan lines, centrists are almost not there at all, and the differences between this one and the 111th are exactly what I said earlier: moderate Democrats took the biggest losses in 2010, their ranks were replaced not by moderate Republicans so much as by conservative ones, and both parties have become more polarized, though the "far left" remains almost nonexistent (look at the Democrats scoring less than -0.6 on the scale, and compare that to Republicans scoring greater than +0.6).

http://voteview.spia.uga.edu/blog/?p=2244

Second (and this surprised even me), the polarization factors are especially acute nowadays, compared to earlier decades.

http://voteview.spia.uga.edu/blog/?p=2223

And while Congressmen of both parties have been drifting towards their outer edges (and I put a lot of blame on gerrymandering for this), the Republicans have gotten much more conservative election after election compared to their Democratic counterparts, ever since Reagan.


Another way of looking at the same issue: the decline of party moderates over the last three decades or so:



And why does any of this matter to the American Public? I have little doubt that the ideology of the public as a whole has shifted to the right over the last few decades (like I've said!), but as like you like to point out: Independents are the key to elections, and more and more Americans are identifying themselves as such as opposed to declaring themselves solidly D or R. In contrast to the congressional graphs, the US public's graphics would have to look more like a gentle bell-curve, or more likely at least two hills with a much less steep valley in between the left and right peaks - I do think the public has become more and more polarized in recnt years, though clearly not nearly as much as their elected representatives are. Apologies for not having a graph of the US public from the same website (their method tracks political records, not public opinion polling), but I think the trends and contrasts here are obvious enough.
There are moderates a-plenty in the US, but not in the US Congress.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_ ... ted_States

And in response to your last post, no, I'm not buying into some Democratic talking points about whining that Dems are underrepresented. FFS, that's a mile wide of what I'm saying. Nowhere did I complain about Democrats being underrepresented; that's just apparently what you want to think I'm talking about (I'd say they were overrepresented from 2006-2010). What I'm trying to illustrate is the stark polarization on the hill, which would be tolerable except that it's gotten so bad that now there are fewer people even willing to meet in the middle, and we're seeing a series of dramatic showdowns take place. Meanwhile the public, the markets, and everybody other than party diehards on either side are disgusted with it.

So what are the solutions to reversing these crippling levels of polarization in DC? That's the discussion I'd like to have.

[tattuchu]

Palin's going to win it.

If she runs the Democrats will win it.

I wouldn't underestimate the stupidity of the American public.

Myself, I kinda like Ron Paul. A lot of the things he says make a hell of a lot of sense. If it were a choice between him and Obama, I'd be torn

[Ian]

"T-Paw" just quit. http://www.cnn.com/2011/POLITICS/08/14/ ... ?hpt=hp_t1
To which most people seeing the story will reply, "Who? Oh yeah, that guy. Well, okay."

Which isn't to say Pawlenty couldn't eventually be tapped to be on the ticket as veep. I'm of the opinion that he's secretly been running for Vice President this whole time.

[Coito ergo sum]

I don't support a single candidate in the 2012 election.

If the election was tomorrow, I don't think I would vote for anyone. Maybe I would write in a porn star or something.

[Coito ergo sum]

Paul Ryan may run... http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/rya ... 90273.html


This bothers me deeply, and I think I don't want him to run. In fact, I know I don't want him to run. He's the last person (of any mentioned possible candidate) that I want to see in the White House.

[Ian]

I'm interested in seeing how this develops:
http://www.americanselect.org/

[Coito ergo sum]

Conspiracy theory about that -- http://forums.colbertnation.com/?page=T ... d_id=28136

I answered some questions, and it does appear to have a liberal slant, based on the phrasing of the questions.

[Coito ergo sum]

Poverty increasing due to Obama administration policies -- http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... verty.html

[Coito ergo sum]

American's satisfaction with present course - 11% -- http://www.gallup.com/poll/149063/Ameri ... -Dips.aspx

[Coito ergo sum]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/com ... _blog.html



Good thing we've had a return to civility....

[Coito ergo sum]

For a guy who was even money with Bachmann in Iowa, he sure gets short shrift from the medias....

http://www.journalism.org/numbers_repor ... g_ron_paul

[Ian]

He's the President.

[Coito ergo sum]

He's the President.

Ron Paul?

[Ian]

He's the President.

Ron Paul?

Oopsies.
Didn't see the link below.