Ian wrote:Coito ergo sum wrote:At the moment, the sentiment over here is that Obama would lose big in Florida.
After winning Florida in 2008? And with Republicans setting their sights on Medicare and maybe even Social Security?
Do you have any polls?
The "sentiment." That's my experience, of course. But, I travel in very liberal circles. My office has nothing but Obama voters in it, and my atheist social circle tends toward the Left. They are disappointed, unmotivated, and worried that the economy is just too bad to allow for his reelection. Plus, it's sort of an emperors new clothes thing - he was built up to be something almost superhuman, and we've seen all too clearly that he is not really all that. So, the let down from the build-up causes a demoralization among his supporters.
Ian wrote:
A few polls over the last few days (which mean almost squat 17 months before the election, but what the hell I feel like posting in this thread for some reason) show Obama in a close race with a "generic Republican candidate", but beating every one of the named Republicans in head-to-head polls. Have no doubt - the GOP has its work cut out for it if they want to take down Obama next year.
Obama hasn't even faced a really salvo against him yet. The media support for him is very strong, so it's going to take a lot of doing. However, all it will take is a little bit of objective reporting, and his image will decline. He's managed to stay aloof, and set himself above the fray, which is why people's opinions of him have remained fairly good. However, if the economy is worse than it is now this time next year, he is burnt toast.
Rasmussen on 6/29/11 had Obama losing to any Republican by 4 points. Gallup found the same thing on 6/16/11. In Gallup's poll only 39% of likely voters said they would vote for Obama. Today, Gallup has the generic 'publican candidate beating 'bama by 5 points.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx and Florida appears to be right along the national line --
http://politic365.com/2011/04/12/florid ... eld-today/
The biggest thing, in my view, is that Obama has lost the Independent voter. They were never strongly in his camp - being mostly anti-Bush. But, the independent voter is gone.