sandinista wrote:Robert_S wrote:Ian wrote:(re-railing the discussion away from "who's more full of shit"...)
Maybe I should mention that "alternative history" (also known as the "What If" game) is one of my favorite subjects. I've got all three volumes of Robert Cowley's
What If? series on my bookshelf.
A few (of many) examples of how huge events in history often turned on small details, or luck, or
(ahem) one important person being involved as opposed to another:
-Roosevelt had been successfully assassinated in 1933 and been succeeded by John Nance Garner
-Beria had prevailed over Khruschev in the struggle for power after Stalin had died
-D-Day fails because of slightly poorer weather, or better German intelligence
-Kennedy survived assassination and we never had a President Johnson
-The Watergate break-in had not been discovered by Frank Wells, and Nixon was not brought down by the coverup
-Henry Wallace had still been Vice President in 1945 instead of Harry Truman
-Someone more aggressive than Theobald Bethmann-Hollweg presided over the Schlieffen Plan in 1914
-Too many crucial military battles which could've gone either way to list here
If one thinks that "nothing significant" is the difference between one version of these histories and another, one might want to step back and re-evaluate what one considers to be "significant"!

, especially the bolded part!
I agree, what one considers "significant" is of utmost importance here. One may want to step back and consider that question.
Hey, I'm sure there are plenty more things of significance to be added there.
But the point is plain enough: little differences can end up becoming incredibly important in terms of history turning one way or another. Have a look through that list. Each of those relatively little differences wound up having
massive consequences for the world. The possibility of a rapid end to the First World War, the New Deal, the course and political outcomes of the Second World War, the possible avoidance of a Cold War and a different postwar economy with a leftist US President (Wallace), the possibility of the Cold War going hot, the potential avoidance of Vietnam, the outcome of Watergate affecting US politics and elections for a generation, etc... they're all significant (potential) events and turning points in the history of the last century, any way you see them. If you don't think so, then there's no use griping about the details of what's happening around the world over the last few years - they're all of little to no significance.
And in a good many cases in history, small numbers of ordinary people had a big impact through mere voting. Flip 1% of votes in Illinois in 1960, and Nixon would've been in office. And had the Cuban Missile Crisis unfolded as it had, the odds would've almost certainly have been higher of a Third World War breaking out. Hundreds of millions dead, quite possibly, and the world forever changed. Ultimately because one elected official was put into office over the other guy who had somewhat similar (but not identical!) politics and competency.
So if little differences, sometimes one person narrowly put into power in place of another, can obviously end up causing tremendous consequences one way or the other, then notions such as "voting is useless" and "it doesn't matter which one wins" are thus rendered unrealistic and incorrect. Not all the time, but often enough to matter. Examples of history
prove such notions unrealistic and incorrect, far more than can be proved by any philosophical reasoning.