Noisy neighbors to the north acting up again. o,0

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Re: Noisy neighbors to the north acting up again. o,0

Post by Warren Dew » Wed Dec 15, 2010 7:53 pm

FBM wrote:Ian, from what I've read, the technology required to make a nuke small enough to put on a missile is considerably more difficult than what it takes to simply make a bang, and they've only make a couple of small bangs so far...which is why I suspect that those bangs may have been of the backpack variety. The estimations of their TNT tonnage are eerily similar, don't you think?
The 2009 explosion was several times as large as the 2006 explosion, so it seems unlikely both came from the same kind of reliably working device. The yield variability points to test versions of plutonium bombs, where they are working on gradually improving the symmetry of the chemical implosion needed to get a proper nuclear detonation of the plutonium.

Note that uranium bombs have no such complexities, and are also much more easily made small enough to fit in a missile.

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Re: Noisy neighbors to the north acting up again. o,0

Post by Coito ergo sum » Wed Dec 15, 2010 7:56 pm

Gawdzilla wrote:Okay, they don't have a reliable delivery system.
....just yet....

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Re: Noisy neighbors to the north acting up again. o,0

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Wed Dec 15, 2010 8:04 pm

Warren Dew wrote:The 2009 explosion was several times as large as the 2006 explosion, so it seems unlikely both came from the same kind of reliably working device. The yield variability points to test versions of plutonium bombs, where they are working on gradually improving the symmetry of the chemical implosion needed to get a proper nuclear detonation of the plutonium.
OR 2006 was a fizzle and 2009 was the one without the kinks.
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Re: Noisy neighbors to the north acting up again. o,0

Post by Ian » Wed Dec 15, 2010 8:26 pm

FBM wrote:
Ian wrote:(BTW - The article that missiles picture came from says the TD-2's max range barely scrapes Alaska. That's actually old information. Newer versions have been worked on, but that picture was the first nice image I found to illustrate my point.)
They barely got one to go far enough to land in water, tho. :hehe:
Except for a couple that flew clear over Japan and into the central Pacific!

Sorry to contradict what you mentioned (they have had failures), but the range of their big rockets ain't to be scoffed at. Not that such details should matter to you; militarily, you're within spitting distance of the North. Practically hand-grenade range.

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Re: Noisy neighbors to the north acting up again. o,0

Post by Warren Dew » Wed Dec 15, 2010 8:36 pm

Gawdzilla wrote:OR 2006 was a fizzle and 2009 was the one without the kinks.
Either way, the 2009 bomb was certainly big enough to debilitate a city.

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Re: Noisy neighbors to the north acting up again. o,0

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Wed Dec 15, 2010 8:37 pm

Warren Dew wrote:
Gawdzilla wrote:OR 2006 was a fizzle and 2009 was the one without the kinks.
Either way, the 2009 bomb was certainly big enough to debilitate a city.
But then, so am I. :smug:
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Re: Noisy neighbors to the north acting up again. o,0

Post by FBM » Thu Dec 16, 2010 1:12 am

Ian wrote:
FBM wrote:
Ian wrote:(BTW - The article that missiles picture came from says the TD-2's max range barely scrapes Alaska. That's actually old information. Newer versions have been worked on, but that picture was the first nice image I found to illustrate my point.)
They barely got one to go far enough to land in water, tho. :hehe:
Except for a couple that flew clear over Japan and into the central Pacific!
Yeah, but they were aiming for Washington. ;)

Sorry to contradict what you mentioned (they have had failures),
Please do contradict. I work from fuzzy memories of old news stories half the time. Neither are very reliable.

but the range of their big rockets ain't to be scoffed at. Not that such details should matter to you; militarily, you're within spitting distance of the North. Practically hand-grenade range.
Not scoffing at the range, if they can actually get them to work. I'm not sure that any of their test firings have been successful, though. Granted, they could have intended from the start to let it ditch once it got past Japan, but considering how expensive it is to set up a test launch, I'd expect them to try for max range. Sending it into neutral waters, of course.

And, yeah, medium sized artillery would get here. :shifty:
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Re: Noisy neighbors to the north acting up again. o,0

Post by Ian » Thu Dec 16, 2010 1:20 am

FBM wrote: yeah, medium sized artillery would get here. :shifty:
I've seen video of Seoul conducting air raid sirens where everyone empties the streets and runs inside. How often does that happen? And do you have a basement to run to if the shit ever hits the fan?

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Re: Noisy neighbors to the north acting up again. o,0

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Thu Dec 16, 2010 1:23 am

Ian wrote:
FBM wrote: yeah, medium sized artillery would get here. :shifty:
I've seen video of Seoul conducting air raid sirens where everyone empties the streets and runs inside. How often does that happen? And do you have a basement to run to if the shit ever hits the fan?
According Father and Son Snow, they're annual, on the date of the 1950 invasion.
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Re: Noisy neighbors to the north acting up again. o,0

Post by FBM » Thu Dec 16, 2010 1:34 am

Gawdzilla wrote:
Ian wrote:
FBM wrote: yeah, medium sized artillery would get here. :shifty:
I've seen video of Seoul conducting air raid sirens where everyone empties the streets and runs inside. How often does that happen? And do you have a basement to run to if the shit ever hits the fan?
According Father and Son Snow, they're annual, on the date of the 1950 invasion.
There are the basic civil defence drills like that every few months. I'd have to look it up to see how often. It doesn't apply out here in the rice paddies. Farmer Kim ain't going to stop plowing over that sorta crap. Back when I lived in a city, I remember that the drills were regularly scheduled and would roll around every 2~3 months. There's been a lot more in the local papers about Seoul's bomb shelter capacity, where people should go in the event, etc.

I could go to the basement of this building, I suppose, but I'd probably just go outside and take photos.
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Re: Noisy neighbors to the north acting up again. o,0

Post by Ian » Thu Dec 16, 2010 2:02 am

FBM wrote:I could go to the basement of this building, I suppose, but I'd probably just go outside and take photos.
The fireworks will be amazing! :awesome:

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Re: Noisy neighbors to the north acting up again. o,0

Post by FBM » Thu Dec 16, 2010 2:30 am

Ian wrote:
FBM wrote:I could go to the basement of this building, I suppose, but I'd probably just go outside and take photos.
The fireworks will be amazing! :awesome:
Hope my memory card survives the blast(s)!! :ab:
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Re: Noisy neighbors to the north acting up again. o,0

Post by FBM » Thu Dec 16, 2010 8:57 am

"A philosopher is a blind man in a dark room looking for a black cat that isn't there. A theologian is the man who finds it." ~ H. L. Mencken

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Re: Noisy neighbors to the north acting up again. o,0

Post by Deep Sea Isopod » Thu Dec 16, 2010 7:21 pm

Clinton Huxley wrote:I guess a nuclear backpack is one of those things you just claim to have. You don't have to have it but the opposition has to factor in that you might....

Similar thing occured in the 70s, I think. Argentina was thought to be about to invade the Falklands and the British Govt issued a statement saying it "Couldn't confirm whether a British submarine was operating in the SOuth Atlantic or not". The Argentines had to presume there was and cancelled invasion preparations. (As it turned out, there was no submarine).

And then in 1982 a cable on Wikileaks showed there were no RN subs in the area. :lay:
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Re: Noisy neighbors to the north acting up again. o,0

Post by Blondie » Fri Dec 17, 2010 2:58 am

AHEM. If I might divert this stupid and speculative line of discussion back to where we left "interesting":

It seems the US top brass is re-evaluating it's (thus far, failed) mission in Afganistan.

The latest White House review of the war in Afghanistan, released today, showed that the coalition forces have relied heavily on airstrikes and night raids against "insurgents" as part of the overall strategy.

The emphasis on such cowardly and ineffective counter-terrorism operations - aimed at killing and capturing "militants" - reflects the difficulties the US military has faced in carrying out the main part of its strategy, known in military terms as "counter-insurgency" - the goal of which is to clear the enemy out of a particular area, the focus on holding and developing it to win over the local Afgan population.

Rick Nelson, retired USN officer who served in Afghanistan last year, had this to say: "It may be an indication that U.S. Goals in Afghanistan and Pakistan (and Pakistan! Can you believe that shit?) are being narrowed from a broad "counter-insurgency" mission to something closer to the stated goal of disrupting and defeating Al-Qaeda."

Translation: Mission failed. State new impossible objective and declare "victory".

NATO officials say both are part of the overall strategy being employed by General Petraeus. The "alliance" insists that at the same time that the coalition has stepped up counterterroism operations, it also has increased its work to bring development and better governance to Afganistan's 34 provinces.

Translation: PR bullshit. We bomb them while they sleep then pave new roads over the corpses of the innocent and young.

The long-awaited review of the war strategy that President Obama is due to release today will show a greater than expected emphasis on counterterrorism operations and a proportional decline in infrastructure building and "winning hearts and minds." He'd rather "bomb hearts and minds", preferrably at night.

The international Red Cross warned Wednesday of an increase in the number of Afgan armed groups interfering in its work, as bombings killed three children and two NATO soldiers - yet more evidence of the ineffectiveness of the US "strategy" in Afganistan.

Reto Stalker of the Red Cross had this to say: "In a growing number of areas of the country, we are entering a new, rather murky period. We see that the proliferation of armed groups threatens the ability of humanitarian organizations to access those in need."

A number of humanitarian workers have been killed in attacks this year, including 10 members of a medical team that were ambushed in northern Afghanistan back in August.

Kai Eide, former UN envoy to Afghanistan warned against escalation of military operations in an opinion piece he wrote which was released Yesterday. In it he calls for a political solution to the war and states it is time to recognize that there are "serious flaws" in the U.S.-led war strategy. He goes on to suggest ceasefires as a means of curbing the continued fighting.

There you have it folks. Not only is the US strategy utterly ineffective, it is having the negative effect of what it is intended to accomplish. Armed insurgent groups are increasing at an alarming rate, proportional to the escalation of US military operations, not decreasing. The situation is becoming more deadly serious for humanitarian workers and servicemen and women alike as the US continues its idiotic strategy in this no-win war.

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