Noisy neighbors to the north acting up again. o,0

[Santa_Claus]

My take is that the Chinese are playing a cunning game. Using NK to get the US to spend itself even more bankrupt on supporting the South mlitarily. the bonus of keeping the US from committing elsewhere in the world (pretty clear that the US policy of being able to sustain 2 major conflicts was a fantasy).

If I was Obama I would tell the Chinese he would be giving the South a Nuclear capability - cruise, not ballistic. and then withdrawing US troops. and he would give the South a green light to invade, if they ever wanted to (I reckon NK would fold quickly)......with the US fleet providing support, including nukes if the NK go that route.

Might even throw in Taiwan as a p/ex to China for NK being invaded

[Ronja]

You get all my Hello Kitty accessories.

If you're radioactive dust floating on the wind, I'll wear the damn things to your wake.

IMO, that is so unfunny it is hilarious. Zilla, you do realize there are loads of witnesses to this promise, and if we really did loose FBM so spectacularly, you damn well would have to wear all that stuff and then some - and it would be a Skype / Justin.tv wake, too.

*there's*no*suitable*smiley*for*this* (exasperated, scared, giggling against my will - all at once)

[Ronja]

FBM can you please come back to the states for a little while?

or come visit Normal and me? We're only about 1.000 km from each other - an easy three day drive (two if we push it) And Tero will be around pretty soon, too.

[Coito ergo sum]

Note the presence of two different borders, in green and orange on your figure.

The Korean War cease fire determined an agreed demarcation line on land, but not at sea. The green line is the U.S. and South Korea's unilateral demarcation line at sea, enforced by superior naval forces. The orange line is North Korea's unilateral demarcation line.

As far as North Korea is concerned, they are shelling North Korean territory occupied by the South in violation of the cease fire.

North Korea's position is not very realistic in practice, but it's not as simple as "North Korea violating the armistice by firing on South Korean territory."

It's definitely not worth going to all out war over. In war there are no winners.

Yeppers -- On May 27, 2009, following the 2009 North Korean nuclear test, North Korea warned that attempts to enforce the NLL would be met with immediate military force. On December 21, 2009, North Korea established a "peacetime firing zone" along the line threatening to fire shells in South Korean territorial waters. http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northko ... 0315F.HTML

The general news reports on this topic are definitely rather thin when it comes to details.

It is a very interesting application of customary international law. It's very interesting how international law is developed. Most of us are somewhat familiar with treaties, protocols and other international agreements. But, a fair amount of international law simply comes from custom and what countries declare the law to be. The UN forces (led by the US) simply set the line in 1953 and has enforced it ever since.

[Warren Dew]

My take is that the Chinese are playing a cunning game. Using NK to get the US to spend itself even more bankrupt on supporting the South mlitarily. the bonus of keeping the US from committing elsewhere in the world (pretty clear that the US policy of being able to sustain 2 major conflicts was a fantasy).

Why would the Chinese want the US spending money on military goods when the money could be better spent, from China's perspective, on peaceful Chinese manufactured goods?

And frankly, China would likely prefer the US be militarily committed elsewhere rather than focused on east Asia.

[Coito ergo sum]

My take is that the Chinese are playing a cunning game. Using NK to get the US to spend itself even more bankrupt on supporting the South mlitarily. the bonus of keeping the US from committing elsewhere in the world (pretty clear that the US policy of being able to sustain 2 major conflicts was a fantasy).

If I was Obama I would tell the Chinese he would be giving the South a Nuclear capability - cruise, not ballistic. and then withdrawing US troops. and he would give the South a green light to invade, if they ever wanted to (I reckon NK would fold quickly)......with the US fleet providing support, including nukes if the NK go that route.

Might even throw in Taiwan as a p/ex to China for NK being invaded

China is pissed because we're fucking them out of all their money. I.e. - we owe China massive amounts of money, and we're just going to pay them back by printing dollars and giving them inflated currency. That's what they've been griping about.

But, I wouldn't put too much stock in the idea that China just out and out controls North Korea. If they did, why would there be islands that are "disputed" between North Korea and China? Like - there was a long running dispute about some islands in the Yalu river that ultimately, North Korea won out on.

And, traditionally, the North Koreans are no big fans of the Chinese and are not keen on being under Chinese yolk. And China doesn't trust North Korea:

Hajime Izumi, a professor of international relations at the University of Shizuoka in Japan, said the world is prone to overstate Beijing’s diplomatic leverage and its interest in economic reform.
“China doesn’t have enough influence to alter North Korean policy,” he said. “It can’t force Pyongyang to give up its nuclear weapons, and as for the succession issue, it has to exercise the principle of non-interference. All Hu would have done at the summit was authorize the process.
“Everything China does arises from mistrust of the North Korean leadership. The People’s Liberation Army is particularly worried that if China pushes too hard for change, that North Korea will react. There could even be conflict.”

http://www.minnpost.com/globalpost/2010 ... orth_korea

Even the CFR discusses China's frustrations with North Korea -- China is one of North Korea's few allies, but it is apparently not in control of North Korea. http://www.cfr.org/publication/11097/ch ... nship.html

[GreyICE]

I have an idea that Kim Il Jong is the reincarnation of Jesus.

It's a fuckton more realistic than China running NK as a puppet state.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

You get all my Hello Kitty accessories.

If you're radioactive dust floating on the wind, I'll wear the damn things to your wake.

IMO, that is so unfunny it is hilarious. Zilla, you do realize there are loads of witnesses to this promise, and if we really did loose FBM so spectacularly, you damn well would have to wear all that stuff and then some - and it would be a Skype / Justin.tv wake, too.

*there's*no*suitable*smiley*for*this* (exasperated, scared, giggling against my will - all at once)

I've made similar bets in the past. I once wore a grass skirt to a funeral.

[FBM]

You get all my Hello Kitty accessories.

If you're radioactive dust floating on the wind, I'll wear the damn things to your wake.

IMO, that is so unfunny it is hilarious. Zilla, you do realize there are loads of witnesses to this promise, and if we really did loose FBM so spectacularly, you damn well would have to wear all that stuff and then some - and it would be a Skype / Justin.tv wake, too.

*there's*no*suitable*smiley*for*this* (exasperated, scared, giggling against my will - all at once)

I've made similar bets in the past. I once wore a grass skirt to a funeral.

It'll be Hello Kitty menstrual pads.

And nothing else.

[amused]

But nuclear issues aside, any military conflict between the countries could badly destabilize the region, especially if the North Korean government were to collapse -- an outcome that some South Koreans fear could lead to a Chinese takeover.

That's the first time I heard about the fear of a Chinese takeover of North Korea. Is that really a concern?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_thelookou ... ed-to-know

[FBM]

But nuclear issues aside, any military conflict between the countries could badly destabilize the region, especially if the North Korean government were to collapse -- an outcome that some South Koreans fear could lead to a Chinese takeover.

That's the first time I heard about the fear of a Chinese takeover of North Korea. Is that really a concern?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_thelookou ... ed-to-know

Yeah, it's a big concern. China doesn't want a West-friendly country right on one of their most sparsely-defended borders. Powerful factions in NK could ally with China in the event of an internal collapse and hand the country over to them. This would seriously piss off every S. Korean alive, as you can imagine. SK has already started some legal maneuvers with the UN Securicy Council to lay claim to the North in the event of a collapse. I'll see if I can find the story for you.

Edit: Haven't found it yet, but here's something that shows how much of a concern it's becoming: http://english.chosun.com/site/data/htm ... 01079.html

[Twoflower]

Hey FBM will just take a very long vacation traveling around the world until this is over with? Please?

[FBM]

Hey FBM will just take a very long vacation traveling around the world until this is over with? Please?

Good idea, but who knows how long this is going to drag out? Even if this episode dies down, the North is so unpredictable that stuff like this is liable to happen anytime. It's been par for the course since before I got here in '96.

Anyway, it'd be so cool to be in a war!

[Twoflower]

Hey FBM will just take a very long vacation traveling around the world until this is over with? Please?

Good idea, but who knows how long this is going to drag out? Even if this episode dies down, the North is so unpredictable that stuff like this is liable to happen anytime. It's been par for the course since before I got here in '96.

Anyway, it'd be so cool to be in a war!

You should come to the Manchester meet up in December. Then we can kidnap you.

[FBM]

Would it be kidnapping if I went willingly?