Boy Band Mafia

[oblivion]

FWIW I would bus a fellow scum player who made a major error. I don't think I'd feel confident bussing someone on as tenuous a tell as I picked up at the beginning of the day yesterday. My vote was mostly to put some pressure on Budski to see what he'd do. He dropped more tells.

[Mantisdreamz]

One more note...

These people seem like town to me:
4 Mantisdreamz
7 twinkie
8 Ani
10 MZ

2 Oblivion (Could always be either).

As for the others, I'm not too sure:
1 Charlou
5 Denny
6 feral p

[Zigmen]

You think you hear the Scum Tweens singing in the background as you string up Charlou and beat her to death.



Yup, that was the performance that rallied the crowd towards the Boy Band.

Charlou was Town. She was the Vigilante.


The living:

2 Oblivion
4 Mantisdreamz
5 Denny
6 feral p
7 twinkie
8 Ani
10 MZ

The Dead:

1 Charlou - Town Vigilante
3 Feck-Town
9 Eduard- Town
11 Budskiboo - Scum

This thread will remain open for discussion for 12 hours, at which point I will open a new thread for Day 3.
Please send your nightmoves.

The Town Band better start winning some fans soon, or the Scum Tweens are gonna win the big prize!

[oblivion]

sigh.

Maintisdreamz, DennyB, and Feral P. Maybe Ani as well.

seer, please view one of them. Tomorrow, we'll probably be at 6 players unless Twinkie gets lucky with her protection. The seer will have 2 views. Hopefully at least one of them will still be alive if the seer doesn't hit scum tonight.

Whoever is left of Twinkie, seer, at least one viewed player (hope), and MZ should form a solid confirmed/nearly confirmed town. IMO Ani is all but confirmed as well. Lynch one of whoever's left, take the night kill hit, and then lynch the final question mark the next day.

[Magicziggy]

I have to grab a bite now.
Back after work to sift through the wreakage.

[Mantisdreamz]

I had a gut feeling about Twinkie from early on. I also had the same feeling about Ed and he was Town so apparently, I'm not that smart.

Thing is about Denny's post here is that he makes the point to say that he thought Ed was guilty at first - so, this is either a very good act to pretend that he is clueless, or he really his town.

I'm just thinking, would he really add in that last part of the sentence if he was scum?


Right now, Feral_P is at the top of my list.

If Denny is not scum, I am left pretty clueless myself.


Perhaps Magic_Z, near the end of last day - really thought that Budski was in for it, and just threw in his vote, so that he'd look trusted - but, without realizing that it was actually Twinkie that was going to be lynched.


Also, Ani. He made a small fuss about his gut feeling about Budski. He seemed to be pushing that he really believed Bud was guilty. Not really something you'd do. I think that clears him, in my mind.

But. There really is still the option that the scum team agreed to sacrifice one of their own - and if that was the case - it really changes everything. It could make Ani, Obli or MZ guilty.

Another option, is that - maybe there are only 2 scum this time. Since scum knew there was another night kill, besides their own - than it was obvious we had a vig. Maybe, if there is only 2 scum, then there is no doc, and Twinkie took the chance to claim that role as hers.

[oblivion]

I think we have to apply Ockham's Razor to some of this.

I'm a little leary about the razor given the last two game designs and Zigmen's level of experience as a GM, but this game so far has seemed to depend on traditional mafia mechanics.
3 scum would be 27%. 2 would be 18%

1 in 4 or 1 in 5 is the usual scum ratio. 3 scum is 1 in 3.6. Town would need to be revved up a little in order for 3 scum to be balanced. there should be a seer. a doc and vig are usually valued at 3 vanilla town. a seer is valued at 6 vanilla town. vig plus doc seems low. vig or doc plus seer seems right. vig + doc + seer suggests there is a don or role blocker. Probably don.

[oblivion]

I had a gut feeling about Twinkie from early on. I also had the same feeling about Ed and he was Town so apparently, I'm not that smart.

Thing is about Denny's post here is that he makes the point to say that he thought Ed was guilty at first - so, this is either a very good act to pretend that he is clueless, or he really his town.

I'm just thinking, would he really add in that last part of the sentence if he was scum?


Right now, Feral_P is at the top of my list.

If Denny is not scum, I am left pretty clueless myself.


Perhaps Magic_Z, near the end of last day - really thought that Budski was in for it, and just threw in his vote, so that he'd look trusted - but, without realizing that it was actually Twinkie that was going to be lynched.


Also, Ani. He made a small fuss about his gut feeling about Budski. He seemed to be pushing that he really believed Bud was guilty. Not really something you'd do. I think that clears him, in my mind.

But. There really is still the option that the scum team agreed to sacrifice one of their own - and if that was the case - it really changes everything. It could make Ani, Obli or MZ guilty.

Another option, is that - maybe there are only 2 scum this time. Since scum knew there was another night kill, besides their own - than it was obvious we had a vig. Maybe, if there is only 2 scum, then there is no doc, and Twinkie took the chance to claim that role as hers.

The portion of this post in green really bugs me. MagicZiggy was well aware of the vote count at the end of day 2. He corrected my count when I left out feral's vote on twinkie. All of those posts are on the same page.

This looks like deliberate wifom sandwich.

[Mantisdreamz]

You think it looks deliberate on my part to say that?

I'm just trying to explore the options if Denny is not scum.


Say, if Feral is scum.... then, I'm trying to figure out who else it could be?


Because - if Denny isn't, then it looks as though another one of Bud's scum members decided it would be good to sacrifice him.


And if one scum team member thought it was good to sacrifice him, it would make sense for the other member to also do the same.

So - maybe Feral isn't even scum, but one or more of either MZ, Ani or Oblivion is.

[oblivion]

Keep it within what the threads show, then. MZ knew the vote count. WIFOMing that looks scummy.

[oblivion]

also, any scum that would pile all their votes on one player on day 1 are nuts and if that kind of tactic has worked in the past then town has been terrible to let them get away with it. Town move in herds habitually. Scum habitually do not.

[Mantisdreamz]

Keep it within what the threads show, then. MZ knew the vote count. WIFOMing that looks scummy.

I actually didn't notice that MZ was keeping track of the votes. He did also make mention in this day round that he wasn't sure whether or not his lynch vote was a clincher.



Yes, I suppose scum do not move in groups... but, in the case of moving in herds because you are sacrificing one of your own, then - you'd think that would be an exception?

The result is - is that the rest of us see all of those who FOS'd Bud, as likely innocent. I'd think that it'd be nice to have all the remaining members of scum in this position - rather than just 1 member. If they took the risk of voting for Bud on the first day, they'd have to compensate by being on a list of most trusted....


I could be going on about it too much. But. I know my role - and, maybe it is just Denny & Feral. But, if it isn't - than, things are just much more confusing.

Do you see my point though of at least trying to understand the situation, if it is not both of them? I don't really think it was that scummy looking of me to try to understand the possible scenario in which MZ could be scum?

[oblivion]

Keep it within what the threads show, then. MZ knew the vote count. WIFOMing that looks scummy.

I actually didn't notice that MZ was keeping track of the votes. He did also make mention in this day round that he wasn't sure whether or not his lynch vote was a clincher.

apologies for jumping your shit. I confused "M" names. It was actually you who called attention the the FP vote on Twinkie, not MZ.

Yow.

Yes, I suppose scum do not move in groups... but, in the case of moving in herds because you are sacrificing one of your own, then - you'd think that would be an exception?

The exceptions are rare, and they are usually late game when a bold move at the last minute can catch town by surprise when it's too late to counter. I've helped orchestrate one such sudden vote pile-on, and the circumstance was quite unusual. When scum teams get entangled votes at the beginning of a game, the team risks being exposed right off the bat. Even a partial exposure early in the game can spell disaster for scum. there is no good reason for such a risky tactic so early in the game.

The result is - is that the rest of us see all of those who FOS'd Bud, as likely innocent. I'd think that it'd be nice to have all the remaining members of scum in this position - rather than just 1 member. If they took the risk of voting for Bud on the first day, they'd have to compensate by being on a list of most trusted....

Nobody thinks I'm likely innocent. I'm a big question mark at best.

I could be going on about it too much. But. I know my role - and, maybe it is just Denny & Feral. But, if it isn't - than, things are just much more confusing.

things are very confusing to me. I think they'll make more sense tomorrow, but I probably won't be around to help sort it out. That's why I'm braindumping tonight. If I am around tomorrow, I should have zero credibility.

Do you see my point though of at least trying to understand the situation, if it is not both of them? I don't really think it was that scummy looking of me to try to understand the possible scenario in which MZ could be scum?

tomorrow is going to be a whole new scenario.

[Mantisdreamz]

apologies for jumping your shit. I confused "M" names. It was actually you who called attention the the FP vote on Twinkie, not MZ.

Yow.

No worries!

The exceptions are rare, and they are usually late game when a bold move at the last minute can catch town by surprise when it's too late to counter. I've helped orchestrate one such sudden vote pile-on, and the circumstance was quite unusual. When scum teams get entangled votes at the beginning of a game, the team risks being exposed right off the bat. Even a partial exposure early in the game can spell disaster for scum. there is no good reason for such a risky tactic so early in the game.

But you'd think a pile on would be a different situation in the end when you must and out of nowhere, rather than at the beginning where when you do a pile on like that, it will likely put you in a trusted position. And also not rouse suspicion, until the majority of town are dead.

Nobody thinks I'm likely innocent. I'm a big question mark at best.

True! But that's just because you are very experienced, so even though you may behave as town as can be, there is still the chance that you're pulling a fast one on us.

things are very confusing to me. I think they'll make more sense tomorrow, but I probably won't be around to help sort it out. That's why I'm braindumping tonight. If I am around tomorrow, I should have zero credibility.

Maybe, but not if we realise that they may be keeping you around because they know this. Or maybe - you wanted me to say this, so that we second guess the notion of you having zero incredibility.

tomorrow is going to be a whole new scenario.

Agreed.


And on that note, I'm off for the night!

[Magicziggy]

I can't give this much thought now. Just a quick flick through before the drive home.
The reason I had Mantis cleared as town in my morning summary was her call on the likely scum kill.
I thought this a subtle way of telling us she was the vig without telling us. Well she's not.
She now reappears large on my radar for this reason.
I do not discount the possibility of Oblivion. She has provided an ongoing commentary on this carnage and directed traffic.

When I logged on at lunch yesterday I did not know the vote count, only that ani's vote had split the tie.
I guessed my vote on Budski would clinch it, but wasn't sure when I voted. I only had a couple of mins to do that.
I shouldn't really even log on to the site before 12:30pm which is nightfall, but things are pretty slack around here.

Others of note: Everybody, because I need an opportunity to read this thread (and yesterday's) in depth and I just can't do that right now.