The US elections in November, 2010.

[Coito ergo sum]

What do you think will happen in what we in the US call the "mid-term" elections?

For those that aren't too familiar with the system, the US Congress is broken up into two halves, the House of Representatives, and the Senate. The House of Representatives contains 435 members who represent "districts" within the state. Districts change from time-to-time as populations shift, because the number of representatives in a state is proportional to its population. California has a lot of representatives in the House, because it has lots of people. Wyoming only has one representative for the whole state, because they have such a low population.

The Senators technically represent "the State" that elects them. Each state has two Senators, regardless of the population of that state, for a total of 100 Senators. The Vice President serves as President of the Senate and breaks tie votes.

Each half of the Congress has theoretically equal power. Proposed laws must pass in both the House and the Senate to become law.

Senators serve 6 year terms. Representatives serve 2 year terms. 36 of the 100 Senate seats are up for reelection in November, 2010. All 435 seats of the House of Representatives are up for grabs.

The Senate currently has 48 Democrats + 2 "Independents" (Lieberman, conservative democrat - and Sanders, socialist) who "caucus" with the Democrats, and 49 Republicans.

The House has 235 Democrats and 198 Republicans.

So, what are the predictions? Will the House change hands? The Senate?

[Coito ergo sum]

Well, Republican candidates have started linking Democratic candidates to Obama, implying that it is a bad thing.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oIb6EGg ... r_embedded[/youtube]

[cowiz]

Parody thread about US Erections in 3....2....1

[Coito ergo sum]

Forecasting the 2010 midterm elections
By: Gary Andres
Weekly Standard
03/01/10 2:30 PM EST

House Dems: At this point, best to pray. (AP photo)
Midterm election forecasts by political scientists and economists are starting to roll out, and the picture is not pretty for the Democrats. This one by Emory University political scientist Alan I. Abramowitz writing for Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball predicts a net loss of 37 Democratic House seats in November.
Abramowitz’s projections are based on four factors, including two that will likely continue to change between now and the election: the generic ballot (currently tied in Abramowitz’s model) and presidential approval (Obama +5 in Abramowitz’s model). The two other variables are already fixed (current number of GOP held seats and whether the president’s party is the same or different than the congressional majority).
Sabato’s own estimate is a little lower at a 27 net seat loss for the Democrats.
Columbia University political scientist Andrew Gelman reports on some other projections in a post title, “The Democrats are Gonna Get Hammered.”
A couple caveats concerning all these forecasts. First, despite the historical tendency for the president’s party to lose seats in midterm elections (the president’s party has lost 24 House seats on average since World War II), in two recent years (2002 and 1998) the party controlling the White House actually gained House seats. Yet that seems like a highly unlikely outcome given the current models.
Second, these projections will continue to change as political conditions evolve between now and November. The two key variables to watch: generic ballot and presidential approval.
Abramowitz underscores this point, demonstrating why, even if the environment for the Democrats improves, the president’s party faces a daunting November:
Even under what might be considered a best-case scenario for Democrats, if President Obama’s net approval rating were to improve from a +5 to a +20, and Democrats were to regain a 10 point lead on the generic ballot, Democrats would still be expected to lose about 20 seats in the House. On the other hand, under what might be considered a worst case scenario for Democrats, if President Obama’s net approval rating was to fall from a +5 to a -20 and Republicans were to gain a 10 point lead on the generic ballot, Democratic losses would be expected to reach 54 seats in the House. So while the national political environment will clearly have an impact on the outcome of the House elections, under any plausible set of circumstances Democrats are likely to lose a substantial number of seats in November due to structural features that are already set.
The political implications of this wide range of outcomes are critical. A 20-seat GOP gain means Democrats retain the majority and Republicans will control less than 200 votes in the House (218 needed for a majority). Under Abramowitz’s worst-case scenario for the Democrats, Republicans capture the majority with some votes to spare and Rep. John Boehner (R-OH) becomes the Speaker of the House.

Read more at the Washington Examiner: http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opini ... z0uFbPaUCE

[Clinton Huxley]

My guess is someone objectionable will get elected. As usual.

[Coito ergo sum]

My guess is someone objectionable will get elected. As usual.

You won't get much in the way of odds on that bet.

[Posse Comitatus]

I don't care as long as Alvin Greene wins.

[Coito ergo sum]

I don't care as long as Alvin Greene wins.

That would be so cool....

[Posse Comitatus]

lol.


What a man.

[Coito ergo sum]

lol.


What a man.

I loved how the media was so quick to grill him on where he got the money to run. It was so frickin' insulting and racist.

[Posse Comitatus]

lol.


What a man.

I loved how the media was so quick to grill him on where he got the money to run. It was so frickin' insulting and racist.

That's no chance. 60% is not chance.

[Coito ergo sum]

The US Congress polling at 11%....... an all time low......http://www.gallup.com/poll/141512/Congr ... tions.aspx

[Posse Comitatus]

How is 11% actually, genuinely possible?

[Coito ergo sum]

How is 11% actually, genuinely possible?

89% of the population has no confidence in the Congress. I think they've merited that number.

[Robert_S]

How is 11% actually, genuinely possible?

89% of the population has no confidence in the Congress. I think they've merited that number.

Any individual voter is not voting for the Congress as a whole, but for their own representative.