Sarah Palin poking the mama grizzlies....

[Coito ergo sum]

Palin is back --

http://www.doublex.com/conversation/sarah%20palin%20ad

Sounds to me like she's going to be running for some kind of office.....

Crap. I was hoping she was going away.

[Ian]

Palin is back --

http://www.doublex.com/conversation/sarah%20palin%20ad

Sounds to me like she's going to be running for some kind of office.....

Crap. I was hoping she was going away.

Nah, I think she's still just raising money. Her name won't really be on a ballet against a serious opponent anywhere. The GOP isn't that dumb.

Disclaimer: I mean the GOP leadership isn't quite that dumb. Its voters are another case. Two or three Tea Party senate candidates have seized their nominations and will be slaughtered by their Democratic opponents this November.

[Coito ergo sum]

Palin is back --

http://www.doublex.com/conversation/sarah%20palin%20ad

Sounds to me like she's going to be running for some kind of office.....

Crap. I was hoping she was going away.

Nah, I think she's still just raising money. Her name won't really be on a ballet against a serious opponent anywhere. The GOP isn't that dumb.

She's very popular. The GOP leadership doesn't have a choice, if the voters want her.

Disclaimer: I mean the GOP leadership isn't quite that dumb. Its voters are another case. Two or three Tea Party senate candidates have seized their nominations and will be slaughtered by their Democratic opponents this November.

If you think the Democrats are going to "slaughter" anyone this November, you haven't been following the polls. The voters are not pleased.

[Valden]

Let me guess.. single mothers don't count because they're just a drain on the economy and it's perfectly okay to go around calling their kids "bastards" and "illegitimate" And mothers who lean towards the more "liberal" side don't count either.

If you think the Democrats are going to "slaughter" anyone this November, you haven't been following the polls. The voters are not pleased.

Perfect reason to vote for a third party. I know I will be.

[Coito ergo sum]

Let me guess.. single mothers don't count because they're just a drain on the economy and it's perfectly okay to go around calling their kids "bastards" and "illegitimate" And mothers who lean towards the more "liberal" side don't count either.

I don't get it. Who said single mothers don't count?

[Valden]

Let me guess.. single mothers don't count because they're just a drain on the economy and it's perfectly okay to go around calling their kids "bastards" and "illegitimate" And mothers who lean towards the more "liberal" side don't count either.

I don't get it. Who said single mothers don't count?

No one. It's been implied not just by Palin, but by other articles I've recently read that's supported by the GOP.

[Coito ergo sum]

Let me guess.. single mothers don't count because they're just a drain on the economy and it's perfectly okay to go around calling their kids "bastards" and "illegitimate" And mothers who lean towards the more "liberal" side don't count either.

I don't get it. Who said single mothers don't count?

No one. It's been implied not just by Palin, but by other articles I've recently read that's supported by the GOP.

Really? I loathe Palin, but I never got any whiff of antipathy toward "single moms" form her, or the GOP.

[Ian]

Palin is back --

http://www.doublex.com/conversation/sarah%20palin%20ad

Sounds to me like she's going to be running for some kind of office.....

Crap. I was hoping she was going away.

Nah, I think she's still just raising money. Her name won't really be on a ballet against a serious opponent anywhere. The GOP isn't that dumb.

She's very popular. The GOP leadership doesn't have a choice, if the voters want her.

Disclaimer: I mean the GOP leadership isn't quite that dumb. Its voters are another case. Two or three Tea Party senate candidates have seized their nominations and will be slaughtered by their Democratic opponents this November.

If you think the Democrats are going to "slaughter" anyone this November, you haven't been following the polls. The voters are not pleased.

I was referring to those particular senate races.
As for the overall picture, of course the Dems will lose seats. That is almost always the norm for midterm elections. http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2010/S ... 2-s.html#1
But polls this far out mean little. One thing I do know: they'll keep the senate. Probably good odds that they'll keep the house too. But again, it's early.

Another interesting article from that website:
Anti-Incumbent Wave Stopped in Its Tracks [ url]http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2010/S ... 9-s.html#7[/url]

[Coito ergo sum]

Palin is back --

http://www.doublex.com/conversation/sarah%20palin%20ad

Sounds to me like she's going to be running for some kind of office.....

Crap. I was hoping she was going away.

Nah, I think she's still just raising money. Her name won't really be on a ballet against a serious opponent anywhere. The GOP isn't that dumb.

She's very popular. The GOP leadership doesn't have a choice, if the voters want her.

Disclaimer: I mean the GOP leadership isn't quite that dumb. Its voters are another case. Two or three Tea Party senate candidates have seized their nominations and will be slaughtered by their Democratic opponents this November.

If you think the Democrats are going to "slaughter" anyone this November, you haven't been following the polls. The voters are not pleased.

I was referring to those particular senate races.
As for the overall picture, of course the Dems will lose seats. That is almost always the norm for midterm elections. http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2010/S ... 2-s.html#1
But polls this far out mean little. One thing I do know: they'll keep the senate. Probably good odds that they'll keep the house too. But again, it's early.

Another interesting article from that website:
Anti-Incumbent Wave Stopped in Its Tracks [ url]http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2010/S ... 9-s.html#7[/url]

I'm old, and in the last 25 years, I have not seen the climate this bad. The antipathy toward the Democrats is palpable. Independents polled are at 38% approval of Obama, and in the 20's for Pelosi and Reid. The Democrats are going to get POUNDED.

[Ian]

Another interesting article from that website:
Anti-Incumbent Wave Stopped in Its Tracks [ url]http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2010/S ... 9-s.html#7[/url]

I'm old, and in the last 25 years, I have not seen the climate this bad. The antipathy toward the Democrats is palpable. Independents polled are at 38% approval of Obama, and in the 20's for Pelosi and Reid. The Democrats are going to get POUNDED.

Congress always polls abysmally. Interestingly, people usually have far higher opinions of their own congressmen.
And Independents don't mean much.

A quote from said article:

Ultimately, come November 3 we will know whether there was an anti-incumbent wave, but the benchmark is whether incumbents, including Republicans, lose big. Historically, the party controlling the White House loses an average of 28 seats in the House and 7 in the Senate. If that happens this year, some pundits will be screaming about what an anti-incumbent year it was, but, in fact, that is just normal voter behavior.

Maybe you're just more in touch with conservative viewpoints. I'm not much younger, but I recall voter mood against Republicans in 2006 and 2008 far worse than any feelings that are out there now. Of course, I might've just been more in touch with liberal viewpoints. The Tea Party, by the way, is nothing new. A decade or so ago they were Buchananites and the "pitchfork people". Nowadays they just have better lobbyists and a catchier name.

We can discuss the House in a few months. But I'm confident enough about the Dems holding onto the Senate to make a bet over it. C'mon, challenge me. :twisted:

[Coito ergo sum]

Another interesting article from that website:
Anti-Incumbent Wave Stopped in Its Tracks [ url]http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2010/S ... 9-s.html#7[/url]

I'm old, and in the last 25 years, I have not seen the climate this bad. The antipathy toward the Democrats is palpable. Independents polled are at 38% approval of Obama, and in the 20's for Pelosi and Reid. The Democrats are going to get POUNDED.

Congress always polls abysmally.

Not this abysmally. They're at an all time low. They were at 22% approval rating recently.

Interestingly, people usually have far higher opinions of their own congressmen.
And Independents don't mean much.

Except that they elected Obama. Independents, today, mean everything.

A quote from said article:

Ultimately, come November 3 we will know whether there was an anti-incumbent wave, but the benchmark is whether incumbents, including Republicans, lose big. Historically, the party controlling the White House loses an average of 28 seats in the House and 7 in the Senate. If that happens this year, some pundits will be screaming about what an anti-incumbent year it was, but, in fact, that is just normal voter behavior.

Maybe you're just more in touch with conservative viewpoints. I'm not much younger, but I recall voter mood against Republicans in 2006 and 2008 far worse than any feelings that are out there now.

That's not my feeling. I have a great many friends who voted Obama who have buyers remorse, and i commonly hear the phrase, "what have we done?" And, comments about how they did not think he was going to be like he is. That translate into anti-Democrat fervor. I saw this morning a news report that indicated that the 68% of independent women are leaning Republican.

Of course, I might've just been more in touch with liberal viewpoints. The Tea Party, by the way, is nothing new. A decade or so ago they were Buchananites and the "pitchfork people". Nowadays they just have better lobbyists and a catchier name.

I never said they were new, and the new-ness doesn't mean anything. It's their activism that means something. They are rabidly anti-Democrat.

We can discuss the House in a few months. But I'm confident enough about the Dems holding onto the Senate to make a bet over it. C'mon, challenge me. :twisted:

I'll take that bet. I predict a change of Senate control.

[Martok]

It sure seems like the republicans have overestimated the influence of the teabaggers.

Harry Reid was considered the most vulnerable democrat but now he's looking more competitive. Nevada was leaning republican, now its a toss up.

[Coito ergo sum]

It sure seems like the republicans have overestimated the influence of the teabaggers.

Harry Reid was considered the most vulnerable democrat but now he's looking more competitive. Nevada was leaning republican, now its a toss up.

The TPM Poll Average currently gives Republican former state Rep. Sharron Angle a lead of 46.0%-40.8%. http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.co ... 010-nv-sen

It's been that way all year.

[Ian]

We can discuss the House in a few months. But I'm confident enough about the Dems holding onto the Senate to make a bet over it. C'mon, challenge me. :twisted:

I'll take that bet. I predict a change of Senate control.

Oh goody! I love taking bets when I know I have a high likelihood of winning.

What shall our bet be? How about for one month, the loser changes his signature to "Ian/Coito understands politics better than I do."

[Coito ergo sum]

We can discuss the House in a few months. But I'm confident enough about the Dems holding onto the Senate to make a bet over it. C'mon, challenge me. :twisted:

I'll take that bet. I predict a change of Senate control.

Oh goody! I love taking bets when I know I have a high likelihood of winning.

What shall our bet be? How about for one month, the loser changes his signature to "Ian/Coito understands politics better than I do."

Sounds good. I'll take that. It's a tougher bet than the House. I'm almost positive the House will change. But, all we need is some other economic woe to befall us, and there will be pitchforks and torches.....