I'm not missing that point, or committing a mirror image fallacy. I realize that he may be unstable, which means that the certainty of his own destruction will only keep him from making a stupid move for so long, and eventually he may convince himself that he has the power. He does take risks - the sinking of that ROK ship was a calculated risk - he pushed the line further there. It very well could have sparked a military retaliation and then an escalation. But, so far, the ROK/US has decided to take it. That may be the best move at this time, but it also comes with downsides.Ian wrote:Your reasoning is perfectly logical. But that's the problem - You're putting yourself in Kim Jong-Il's shoes, and figuring out how you would best survive. But you are not Kim Jong-Il. You're more reasonable, and have a different perception from him. It's called the mirror-imaging fallacy.
It can't count on them to "win" the war, but it can count on them to devastate the DPRK military ground forces that are above ground, and to take out very quickly the command, control and communications, and supply lines, of the North. North Korea is a much smaller place than it was in 1951. The air and naval superiority factored into the plan would buy the time to bring in 100,000 troops, and by the time ground forces roll into the north, the north's army would be starving and out of fuel.Ian wrote:
As for the details of the OPLAN, yes the US and ROK would cause huge casualties to North Korean ground forces in the opening stages. But that isn't what the South wants. In the event of war, it wants 1) to sustain a minimum level of damage to itself, and 2) to counterinvade and remove Kim's government. Unfortunately, that's more than a basic strategy, those are its priorities. In order to achieve #2, it has to risk #1. It may not be willing to do so while it waits around for more US troops to arrive. Meanwhile, the US simply cannot count on its bombers to win the war.
The bigger task - the almost insurmountable problem - would be averting a humanitarian catastrophe where millions starve in North Korea. And, follow that up with the also almost insurmountable task of getting a brainwashed people to settle down and form a free country. That is not in our pay grade, I fear.
The ultimate victory can't. The devastation of the north's ability to move effectively against the south can most definitely be achieved.Ian wrote:
It can't be done without ground forces. It just can't.
Ian wrote:
The delay between the opening stages and the next stage of counterinvasion may be too much for Seoul to deal with.
In the first few days, most of North Korea's command, control and communications, and supply lines, could be cut. The South will take hits, but I doubt Seoul would be taken by the north or devastated by the north. Hit, yes. Devastated? Doubtful.
Shit. Hadn't seen that. The North's next move is to re-assert that the Northern Limit Line actually extends through their territorial waters, as it never agreed to the line in the first place. That could very well turn into the flash point. Or they'll insist that the UN mediate a re-drawing of the line in their favor.
I thought about posting that earlier today... It's just...I mean 