Another day, another threat of all-out war.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Cloverfield, Gawd.
The title is Cloverfield.

Wut?

[Trolldor]

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1060277/

Cloverdale sounds like a small Amish community.

[FBM]

I suppose "play nice" is out of the question?

No profit in it.

Okay, then will you Cloverdale the events for us?

Do I know what you're talking about?

The movie "Cloverdale" consists entirely of footage "recovered" from a camcorder after a huge alien attacks NYC and all hell breaks loose.

Oh.

My vidcam is way old. Send me a new one and we'll talk.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1060277/

Cloverdale sounds like a small Amish community.

Cloverdale is an old joke about the movie due to a title change before it was released. I keep forgetting most people don't know it. My bad.

[Ian]

The prez is beefing up maritime defences and surveillance and SK forces are generally on a higher alert level. Politically, opposition parties aren't actually opposed to imposing economic sanctions on NK, which the ruling party is pushing, but they're nevertheless taking issue with how the ruling party has conducted the investigation, how slack they were to let one of their ships get torpedoed in the first place, etc.

I hope they don't get slapped too hard for that. It's damn difficult to detect a submarine, especially a small diesel one, especially in heavy currents, especially if it's just sitting there waiting for a surface target, and especially if it uses a wake-howing torpedo which comes in behind the ship.

The North's excuse apparently was the 10 November 2009 clash with the ROK Navy south of the NLL which ended badly for the North korean ship. There may be other reasons related to a post-KJI North Korea, but I won't get into that here.

The south's in one helluva dilemma. From my POV, they have three choices:

1) Overt military retaliation. Most other countries would do this without much hesitation, but the South has to be desperate to avoid escalation. South Korea is now one of the world's top 20 economies, and Seoul is a city of 12 million... which could be pounded to bits by DPRK artillery within hours.
2) Covert military retaliation. This is an even worse option, IMO. The South's government will look like is still hasn't done anything and will lose points with its people, and as far as the North's reaction is concerned it risks retaliation anyway.
3) Diplomatic options. Demand restitution and a promise that the North will never do anything of the sort again, lest specific, pre-ordained retaliation be initiated. I think this is a pretty weak option, especially since the North will probably just tell Seoul to piss off, but I just don't think the South will try one of the first two.

The Blue House is supposed to address the nation on Monday, so they're taking the weekend to figure out a course of action.
It's not a very big story in the US either. It's gotten some print and airtime, but it's still down on the hierarchy of news stories. But those of us who have been watching the situation are more than a bit concerned that things will blow up. The status quo has been around for ages and that's why people don't seem to concerned, but I think this is a very precarious situation.

[FBM]

Surveillance of one sort or another apparently saw a couple of subs (up to 3?) leaving dock in the Yellow Sea along with a mother ship a couple of days before the incident, then losing them a day or so before the explosion.

Covert action is possible, but even though NK doesn't have enough international support to launch an independent investigation into such things, it would only lead to escalation, not resolution.

Seems to me that the best thing to do is to try to ratchet up international support for further economic sanctions and wait. I hear that public support for the KJI regime is wearing thin. Setting up conditions that may lead to an internal collapse seems to be the wisest option.

[Trolldor]

Except for all the NK who will die as a result of internal fuckwittery.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Except for all the NK who will die as a result of internal fuckwittery.

The next change of power in NK will be "interesting". I.e, it will be a blood-bath. It's shaping up to be a holy war right now

[Ian]

Except for all the NK who will die as a result of internal fuckwittery.

The next change of power in NK will be "interesting". I.e, it will be a blood-bath. It's shaping up to be a holy war right now

Kim Jong-Il is apparently setting up his third son Kim Jeong-Un to succeed him. Trouble is, I don't know if the guy has the brains or the gravitas to keep things together after his dad goes. It could be a political collapse of the highest magnitude.
The again, I would've said exactly the same thing about KJI before he took over in 1994, that he could never live up to what his dad did and survive very long.

[Coito ergo sum]

Get ready for war on the Korean Peninsula!

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37309788/ns ... iapacific/

I don't think Jong Il will go to war. He has to know that Pyonyang can be leveled this time. It's not like 1951. Today, the US and the ROK would own the skies and the seas. While the North Korean army is quite formidable, it won't be able to stop 24-7 bombings of North Korea's already feeble infrastructure. Command, Control and Communications will break down quite quickly, and it will simply be up to the fanaticism of the North Korean army to hold off the South and the US.

If he's gone totally crazy and lost connection to reality, he'll go to war. If not, it's just more brinkmanship on his part to try to extort another year's worth of money with which he can keep his crumbling communist paradise up and running.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Except for all the NK who will die as a result of internal fuckwittery.

The next change of power in NK will be "interesting". I.e, it will be a blood-bath. It's shaping up to be a holy war right now

Kim Jong-Il is apparently setting up his third son Kim Jeong-Un to succeed him. Trouble is, I don't know if the guy has the brains or the gravitas to keep things together after his dad goes. It could be a political collapse of the highest magnitude.
The again, I would've said exactly the same thing about KJI before he took over in 1994, that he could never live up to what his dad did and survive very long.

Don't look at the "boss", look at the Praetorian Guard.

[FBM]

As of Saturday, the news was reporting that USFK was not on heightened alert, though SK forces are. Then there's this just a little while ago:

http://joongangdaily.joins.com/article/ ... id=2920857

[Breaking News]
Passive military defense will be ditched: Lee

李대통령 `北 무력침범땐 즉각 자위권 발동`

South Korea will no longer tolerate North Korea’s provocations and will change its military posture from passive defense to proactive deterrence, President Lee Myung-bak said today, detailing his country’s response to the communist regime’s attack on a patrol boat in March.

“If our territorial waters, airspace or territory are militarily violated, we will immediately exercise our right of self-defense,” Lee said in an address to the nation, televised live Monday morning.

“From this moment, no North Korean ship will be allowed to make passage through any of the shipping lanes in the waters under our control, which has been allowed by the Inter-Korean Agreement on Maritime Transportation,” Lee said. “The sea routes meant for inter-Korean exchanges and cooperation must never again be used for armed provocations.”

An international team of experts concluded last week that a North Korean submarine infiltrated the South Korean waters west of the peninsula and fired a torpedo at the Navy warship Cheonan, sinking the ship and killing 46 sailors on March 26.

“In close consultations with the nations concerned, the government will refer this matter to the UN Security Council, so that the international community can join us in holding the North accountable,” Lee said. “Many countries around the world have expressed their full support for our position.”

“Trade and exchanges between the Republic of Korea and North Korea will also be suspended,” Lee said.

“However, we will continue to provide assistance for infants and children,” he said. “Matters pertaining to the Kaesong Industrial Complex will be duly considered, taking its unique characteristics into consideration.”

The joint industrial site built in the North as a symbol of reconciliation is regarded as the last bastion of the inter-Korean ties. More than 100 South Korean companies employ about 40,000 North Koreans in Kaesong. Shutting the complex will likely anger South Korean businesses that use Kaesong as an Asian exports base.

By Ser Myo-ja [myoja@joongang.co.kr]

[Coito ergo sum]

The punitive actions were explained in more detail by the ministers of unification, foreign affairs and defense during the joint press briefing.

In addition to the all-out prohibition of North Korean vessels’ operation or docking in South Korean waters, including the Jeju Strait, and suspension of inter-Korean trade, Unification Minister Hyun In-taek said Seoul will ban South Koreans’ visits to all areas in North Korea except for the joint venture in Gaeseong and limit their contact with North Koreans.

He also announced the prohibition of new investments or expansion of investments in existing projects in North Korea, while continuing production activities in Gaeseong.

Cross border aid programs will be generally deferred with the exception of aid for infants and children in North Korea, Hyun said.

As for the joint industrial park in Gaeseong, Hyun said Seoul “will not tolerate any harm done by the North to the safety of South Korean citizens.”

President Lee urged the North Korean authorities to apologize immediately to the ROK and the international community, and to immediately punish those who are responsible for and those who were involved in the sinking of the Cheonan.

“These are basic measures that the North has to take before anything else. If the North continues to make excuses and wild assertions as it has always done in the past, they will not find any place to stand in the world,” he said.

Lee also stressed that the North’s military provocation against the Cheonan on March 26 violated the Charter of the United Nations and contravened the existing agreements reached for the sake of peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, including the Korean War Armistice Agreement and the Basic Agreement between South and North Korea.

“In close consultation with the nations concerned, the government will refer this matter to the U.N. Security Council, so that the international community can join us in holding the North accountable,” he said.

http://www.koreaherald.com/national/Det ... 0524000740

[FBM]

M'kay, this is a little unusual...http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/na ... 66406.html

NK threatens to fire at loudspeakers

By Lee Tae-hoon, Park Si-soo
Staff reporters

North Korea threatened to fire at South Korean loudspeakers along the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) and destroy them, Monday, if Seoul resumes propaganda broadcasting suspended since 2004.

"If South Korea installs new speakers for psychological warfare, we will directly aim at them and open fire to destroy them," an unnamed North Korean military commander said in a statement, carried by Pyongyang's official Korean Central News Agency.

"If the South Korean traitors challenge our rightful response, we will counter with mightier physical strikes to eliminate the root cause of their provocation," the statement said.

The North's threat came shortly after Seoul announced a set of measures against Pyongyang, holding it accountable for the March 26 sinking of a South Korean warship that took the lives of 46 sailors.

Defense Minister Kim Tae-young said, along with other measures, the South would restart psychological operations against the communist North, including loud broadcasts of propaganda along the DMZ.

Kim warned of counter attacks if the North fires at the speakers.

"If the North disrupts our psychological warfare by opening fire at loudspeakers, we will counterattack immediately," the minister affirmed during a session at the National Assembly.

The North Korean commander noted that propaganda slogans had already appeared on the South's side of the border, and the South's military was moving to set up new speakers.

"This is a serious military provocation and a breach of the inter-Korean military agreement. This is also a grave matter that will lead inter-Korean relations to their worst ever," he said.

According to the Rodong Sinmun, an organ of the North's Workers' Party, the South's government is making fictitious allegations of a torpedo attack to distract attention from its domestic politics.

"It will come to clearly realize what disastrous consequences will be entailed by its smear campaign and frantic racket of confrontation and war against North Korea," the paper said.

The North's Foreign Ministry also expressed Pyongyang's unwillingness to abandon its nuclear programs on the state-run television

"We have the right to have as many nuclear deterrents and increase them to protect the nation's rights," a spokesman for the ministry said.

He argued that the North is not obliged to dismantle its nuclear program as it has already withdrawn from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

"A clause of the NPT states that a member state can bolt from it, if the nation's vested interests are threatened," he said.

The two Koreas technically remain at war, as the 1950-53 Korean War ended in an armistice, not a peace treaty.

leeth@koreatimes.co.kr


leeth@koreatimes.co.kr

[Gawdzilla Sama]

SK threatens to retaliate by unleashing three '64 Chevrolet Impalas from Compton.