American Politics from 2019 on

[Tero]

A friend is a history professor in Athens Ohio. It borders on this area. Her husband is a prosecutor for the county. It has a very high number of felons among males, compared to the other Ohio counties. A lot of it is just violence against women and teen girls. We drove through W Virginia after that a year ago. If democrats they are all Joe Manchin voters.

They are driving a two lane road at 27 minutes. We saw exactly that. people are stuck there forever. They never move.

[Svartalf]

Cycling is woke.

worst, it's irresponsible and dangerous

[rasetsu]

Cycling is woke.

worst, it's irresponsible and dangerous

[Tero]

Unpopular Biden
https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/202 ... rating.cnn
(video)
Possible causes listed. Economy/Biden himself (old)
Speaker rates the general polarized media. Country no longer does large swings for presidents. History of election in his slides.

Some of the hostory is true. I never could understand it, but Reagan was really popular. Different times, but I never talked politics then.

[Tero]

War on drugs...now on fentanyl. If you have to use opiates, this is a more dangerous time to user them off the street because of fentanyl. The technology to use it properly is missing from the cartels producing it. You get a random amount.

The synthetic opioid, usually made from chemicals manufactured in China and shipped via Mexico, is popular with cartels because it is many times more powerful than other narcotics and so requires smaller quantities which are easier to smuggle than heroin or cocaine. The fentanyl is then laced into other drugs to boost their strength and value, but small amounts of it are so powerful it is hard to calculate the strength of the narcotic and easy for the unwitting user to overdose.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... yl-charges

[Tero]

Some more meaningful polling:
Trump, in particular, is unlikely to match his 47% of the vote from 2020 if the GOP nominates him again. “We are starting at a place where it is far more likely in my mind that he gets to 45% than he gets to 49%,” Rosenberg said.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/01/politics ... index.html

[Tero]

Going back to the voters. The polling means nothing at this point, but the support Trump still has does show up in the numbers. Biden is now a "has been, go bicycling grandpa." He did his job. Most voters don't really care about one term or two terms. This may in fact be the end of two term presidents. If not now, then 2028 and later.

My take is that due to the dislike of both candidates the polling is reflecting mostly the disinterest of the major center group (largely white people) in the 2024 election. But since they still show up to vote it will come to the last month of the voting season for many of them to make up their minds. This has been the case for 20 years, a large group claiming to be “independent” but really a bit on the conservative side. They actually do not care for government at all, a big part of independents being just enough libertarian. That also explains Trump voters showing up. The first candidate they had that had a libertarian twist.

[rasetsu]

In 2016, voters on the whole disliked both Clinton and Trump. As luck would have it, they more strongly disliked Hillary than Donald. I don't think that you can neglect the potential for a repeat of that dynamic.

[Strontium Dog]

In 2016, voters on the whole disliked both Clinton and Trump. As luck would have it, they more strongly disliked Hillary than Donald. I don't think that you can neglect the potential for a repeat of that dynamic.

Nearly 3 million more of them voted for Hillary.

[rasetsu]

In 2016, voters on the whole disliked both Clinton and Trump. As luck would have it, they more strongly disliked Hillary than Donald. I don't think that you can neglect the potential for a repeat of that dynamic.

Nearly 3 million more of them voted for Hillary.

Allow me to rephrase. Voters who disliked both Trump and Clinton broke mainly for Trump and probably decided the election.

Nearly 18 million voters cast ballots this election despite believing that neither Donald Trump nor Hillary Clinton were qualified to be president.

It was an astonishing dilemma created by two campaigns whose dominant message was that their opponent was unfit.

Those who agreed with both campaigns may have decided the election.

This disillusioned group – 14% of all voters – broke heavily for Trump: 69% to 15%, according to exit polls. About 1 in 7 in this group voted for someone other than the major party candidates. Most were independent voters, with 38% Republicans and 18% Democrats. Had they sat out the election instead, Clinton would have won in a landslide with 53% of the vote to Trump’s 44%. Further evidence of this disillusionment can perhaps be found in total voter turnout; while votes are still being counted, early indications are that turnout is on par with its lowest rate in 20 years.

(CNN, November 11, 2016)

[JimC]

Given another Trump/Biden battle, I think the proportion of Americans disliking both, and also the proportion of people deciding not to vote can only increase...

[pErvinalia]

I can't actually believe Biden is going to run again. He's ancient, and it shows. Can't imagine how decrepit he's going to be in 5 years.

[JimC]

[Sean Hayden]

One way to look at it is that nobody actually wants the job. —as long as it’s a teammate

[JimC]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-31/ ... /102796926

Top US Senate Republican Mitch McConnell has frozen up for more than 30 seconds during a public appearance before being escorted away, the second such incident in a little more than a month.

The 81-year-old was responding to questions from reporters after an event in Kentucky when he froze up, staring into space and not responding to reporters and others nearby.

After being approached by a second person, Mr McConnell resumed speaking but needed reporters' questions repeated to him and only answered two more questions.

The longest-serving Senate party leader in history, Mr McConnell's voice was shaky and quiet.

The incident raised fresh questions among Republican and Democratic members of Congress about some of their ageing colleagues.