The Coronavirus Thread

[Hermit]

Spring in the US, autumn in Australia.

On average spring in the US is colder than autumn in Australia. Today's top temperature where I live was 26°C. Forecast for the next six days is 30, 31, 29, 31, 28 and 25 degrees. Even the southern parts of the US are not appreciably warmer. Top temperatures for the next six days in Orlando, Florida, are forecast to reach 22, 25, 28, 31, 32 and 31°C. Further up north you still get snow in April. Between the states of Washington and Maine you can get snowfalls in May.

[Sean Hayden]

This was mentioned in Macdoc's link along with several other reasons for why the US may not follow Europe this time.

--//--

I'm beginning to wonder how long it's going to take some people to accept this thing is with us now.

[Cunt]

Alberta has a health minister on trial. A Rebel News reporter has been riffing off her uncomfortable fumbling.

Here is a sample, if you are interested.

https://twitter.com/SheilaGunnReid/stat ... 3242196994

GREY: is this the first time you have seen zero cases of seasonal influenza?
Hinshaw: yes
Grey: how do you explain this?
Hinshaw: PARAPHRASED the restrictions prevented the spread of the flu
GREY: the restrictions completely eradicated influenza?
Hinshaw: yes that's my opinion

[NineBerry]

Sounds reasonable. Influenza has been down wherever there were covid restrictions. Since Influenza has it harder than Covid because of the already prevailing community immunity, the restrictions work better against influenza than against Covid.

[Cunt]

Sounds reasonable. Influenza has been down wherever there were covid restrictions. Since Influenza has it harder than Covid because of the already prevailing community immunity, the restrictions work better against influenza than against Covid.

I kind of wonder what happened to STI's infection rates. It seems (from my unadventurous vantage) that there is either a lot less instances of philandering...or a lot more are unannounced.

But the transmission of those time-honoured tattle-tales should still...tattle.

[macdoc]

I'm beginning to wonder how long it's going to take some people to accept this thing is with us now.

accepting it is with us in no way means it's over and that all mitigation should be lifted.
Ignoring BA-2 and opening up entirely in the face of it was a policy error in my view and a recipe for another variant to come along and throw buck of cold water on the celebration.
Already has in some jurisdictions.

China is the major hold out on containing covid ....I wish them well but don't think it will succeed.

[Sean Hayden]

It means accepting it as a risk for the foreseeable future and striving to accurately depict and deal with that risk. I see your slant, and insistence on meeting all good news with dire warnings as distorting the risk.

[macdoc]

Good news based on the science is fine....not a lot of that about. When hospitalizations and ICU are climbing, hospitals unable to support the staff needed even with new beds availables ..how can anyone claim it's over.

We had 7 deaths in all of Queensland until late Dec 2021 and no restrictions at all except rigorous tracking and tight border control.
I was not over then and it isn't now.

Then it went stupid and even now deaths and hospitalizations are reasonable ...but it's not over and BA-2 is not fully spread or it's consequences known.

Just google https://www.google.com/search?q=uk+staf ... =707&dpr=2

and tell me it's over.
And it's the same or worse for other areas even with high vax rates with a few like Hong Kong a nightmare worse than they've seen since day One.

Hospital stats lag infection rates and places like Florida are in pretend mode.

and now another variant has come into play

LONDON

Driven by the omicron BA.2 variant, coronavirus cases across the UK have risen significantly in recent weeks following the end of all COVID-19 restrictions.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics showed that 4.9 million people in the UK were infected with the virus between March 20 and 26 March, up from 4.3 million in the previous week.

Meanwhile, discovery of the new XE variant in the UK raised concerns, and the government updated its official list of COVID-19 symptoms. The new signs include shortness of breath, sore throat, muscle pains and diarrhea.

Last month, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) detected the presence of XE – a recombinant of omicron BA.1 and BA.2 – in the UK.

According to the agency, the XE strain was first discovered in the UK in mid-January, and 637 cases have been reported to date.

Prof. Susan Hopkins, chief medical adviser at the UKHSA, had said that XE showed a "variable growth rate" but there was not enough evidence to draw conclusions about its transmissibility.

Amid these developments, UK tour operators on Tuesday warned of further flight cancellations and travel disruptions during the Easter holiday break.

EasyJet, one of the UK’s popular tour providers, had already cancelled 62 scheduled flights on Monday and called off over 200 flights on Saturday and Sunday. The cancellations, according to the company, are due to rising coronavirus cases and mass staff absences due to sickness.

"As a result of the current high rates of COVID infections across Europe, like all businesses, easyJet is experiencing higher than usual levels of employee sickness and so we have taken the action to cancel some flights in advance, in order to give customers notice,” it said in a statement.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/uk-covi ... ed/2556110

The higher the case numbers the higher the likelihood of an new variant and quite frankly no one has a handle on the size of the problem.

Living with it doesn't mean it's over or that easy precautions like masks should be dumped.

[Sean Hayden]

This is never over. Your concern for variants is shared by scientists and other experts. Every year a small group of them will fret about new variants and their potential. They will do this long after we've stopped talking about it.

Things look markedly better here in terms of serious illness, especially for the vaccinated. Something we didn't know going in, and which of course does nothing now to help the vulnerable. This is not a comment about how we got here, just about where we are. Nobody thinks we've handled this well.

But today, what would be a better way of understanding the risks: following bleeding edge speculation, or the data we do have now? When someone points out that hospitalizations are down, and have been trending down, and are now at just 1 person in ICU, what is likely to give us a better idea of how the public in that area should feel about the risks: the newest potential threat being speculated about by scientists, or data showing the low risk of serious illness especially among the vaccinated?

--//--

That's how I'm thinking about this lately anyway. I understand the prioritizing of the vulnerable. Talking about the relatively low risk to most people may be cold and self-defeating. It's not like the virus cares who slipped by this iteration, potentially nobody is safe indefinitely.

On masking, I want to wear a mask when I think I'm helping someone including myself obviously. Masking is hardly an inconvenience beyond the feeling of being the odd man out. But it's not all that anyone did trying to stay safe especially in a place where the government did not consistently apply mandates.

[pErvinalia]

It means accepting it as a risk for the foreseeable future and striving to accurately depict and deal with that risk. I see your slant, and insistence on meeting all good news with dire warnings as distorting the risk.

Health experts think the risk is still high. You seem to be focused on a political argument.

[macdoc]

striving to accurately depict and deal with that risk.

are you ?? depicting it accurately ???
Don't think so.
And I don't mean just individual risk...rather risks to the health system and the employment in vital industries. Is 1/3 of the Emergency services off due to Covid in London mean it's even close to over, just to name one reality of many.?

If you are currently in a quiet bubble...count yourself fortunate as I did for the fiirst two years.

[Brian Peacock]

Is herd immunity still a dirty word?

This annoys me. Herd Immunity is a term used specifically in relation to the effectiveness of vaccination programs intended as responses to contagious infections. When applied to general, non-vaccinated populations herd immunity is simply expressed through the proportion of that population which survive to reproduce, rendering the immunity status of future generations moot.

[macdoc]

Good read on The Atlantic regarding masking

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... ource=digg

[macdoc]

Florida approach - just stop reporting ...


https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... in-the-u-s

[Sean Hayden]

It means accepting it as a risk for the foreseeable future and striving to accurately depict and deal with that risk. I see your slant, and insistence on meeting all good news with dire warnings as distorting the risk.

Health experts think the risk is still high. You seem to be focused on a political argument.

With current high levels of vaccination and high levels of population immunity from both vaccination and infections, the risk of medically significant disease, hospitalization, and death from COVID-19 is greatly reduced for most people. At the same time, we know that some people and communities, such as our oldest citizens, people who are immunocompromised, and people with disabilities, are at higher risk for serious illness and face challenging decisions navigating a world with COVID-19.

That's from the CDC.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... evels.html