The Coronavirus Thread

[Hermit]

With the advent of the Omicron strain the shit has hit the fan in Australia. Big time.
Daily new Covid-19 cases per million population (rolling 7-day average) in Australia:

01 - 12 - 2021          53.82
31 - 12 - 2021        619.41
10 - 01 - 2022     3,333.69

The chart illustrating the trend from the start of 2020 to now illustrates the drastic change. New Zealand statistics added for comparison.



Anyone thinking the impending death toll won't be too bad because the severity of the Omicron strain's effects are not as severe as those of previous strains is deluding themselves. What the new strain lacks in severity will be more than made up by the sheer number of infections. This has already manifested itself in the state I lice in - South Australia - and the avalanche has not really started yet. From the beginning of the pandemic to the 27th Dec 2021 the Coronavirus caused 4 deaths. Between the 28th and now we had another 22, 18 of them in the last four days. Given the typical lag between infection and death of about three weeks and the rocketing increase of new infections I am not looking forward to the next couple of months at all.

[Brian Peacock]

Sorry I left out the punch-line:

Conclusion

The FFT technology allows us to observe the behaviour of the pandemic not by the number of daily deaths but by the cycle length of the power peak spectrum in the frequency domain. Policymakers can control their policies based on the cycle length in the pandemic waves. The proposed Fourier method is useful for analysing wave behaviours in other medical applications.

Interests to suggest that infection peaks over time are kind of harmonics of the first wave, but to be meaningful shouldn't this analysis be carried out on data from an unvaccinated population which didn't enact social mitigation measures? Also, the wave peaks are distinguishable in the original un-processed data, and the paper appears to be a descriptive rather than a predictive model. Help me out here - what's a real scientist like yourself to take from this?

[Tero]

Flattening not quite happening in the county. 991 a week ago monday, 1294 this week mon.

nationally it went down from 1 million 7 day ave to 700 000 current 7 day ave.

In the US there are some 63.4 million cases by now. Some may be repeats. But with the milder cases and people not taking time off if they have no paid sick leave, my guess is that 30% of the population has had it.

[rainbow]

Sorry I left out the punch-line:

Conclusion

The FFT technology allows us to observe the behaviour of the pandemic not by the number of daily deaths but by the cycle length of the power peak spectrum in the frequency domain. Policymakers can control their policies based on the cycle length in the pandemic waves. The proposed Fourier method is useful for analysing wave behaviours in other medical applications.

Interests to suggest that infection peaks over time are kind of harmonics of the first wave, but to be meaningful shouldn't this analysis be carried out on data from an unvaccinated population which didn't enact social mitigation measures? Also, the wave peaks are distinguishable in the original un-processed data, and the paper appears to be a descriptive rather than a predictive model. Help me out here - what's a real scientist like yourself to take from this?

I agree with you, the feedback from social mitigation versus 'lockdown fatigue' introduce imponderable variables.
I prefer chemistry where if the colour turns blue, then you know something has happened, and then you can work out why.
Stats ain't my bag, dude

[Brian Peacock]

Imponderable you say.

I'll have to think about that.

[Tero]

County hit biggest daily case number, over 700.
"The health department also reported one new death due to COVID - a man in his 90s who was unvaccinated."

Wonder where he was? Living alone I guess. They don't let you in assisted living without vaccination.

[JimC]

Over 90,000 new cases and 22 deaths in NSW alone yesterday. 37,000 and 25 deaths in Victoria, and cases growing in other states. Mostly omicron, and mostly mild, but hospitalisations are increasing, just because of the huge numbers. And this in one of the most vaccinated countries around...

[macdoc]

Dotter in-law hubby ( Quantas pilot ) has Covid so now she and her co-worker ( senior Marriot managers in Port Douglas ) are out of circulation tho can work from home.
Pilot not so much.
Staff in Canada buttoning up the biz even more.

[macdoc]

Line of the day :"If there's one thing out there more contagious than COVID, it's stupid," Colbert quipped.

[Hermit]

covid corona the next variant plays the accordion.jpg (20.98 KiB) Viewed 1459 times

[Svartalf]

If it's a Finnish variant, I could live with that, Finnish folk on the accordion can be pretty easy on the ears.

[Brian Peacock]

Yeah, and the Nepalese can make the banjo sound good? Pull the other one.

[Tero]

You got covid anyway?

[Tero]

About every other week now
LINCOLN, Neb. (KOLN) - The Lincoln Lancaster County Health Department reported four new deaths due to COVID-19 Thursday: a woman in her 90s and a man in his 80s who were vaccinated and a woman in her 40s and a man in his 50s who were unvaccinated.

[Tero]

You don't have to vaccinate all kids. Just the ones you want to keep.