The Coronavirus Thread

[Hermit]

But it was a video, and it echoed my incoherent beliefs! It must be right!

I actually agree with two central points made in the video.

• The woman should not have been arrested for filming inside the hospital without first obtaining a permit.
• The government is lying to the public about the capacity the hospitals to handle the Coronavirus epidemic.

Neither has anything to do with the topic of nurses our member from Yellowknife has been going on about recently. They don't even rate a mention in that discussion. It did not echo his incoherent beliefs. He just read stuff into it that wasn't there.

It should be noted that the hospital has 628 beds spread over many wards and several floors. Most of them are not equipped to deal with coronavirus infected patients. Nevertheless, 200 of the 628 beds were occupied by patients suffering from the Coronavirus.

There is no way Debbie Hicks has walked through more than a tiny section of the hospital. From the video she published it appears that she has wandered into the outpatient unit - on a bank holiday. Kind of explains why even the reception area was empty. Project Veritas would undoubtedly value her skills to mislead.

In case anyone wants to have a look at it I'll paste the link here to save you scrolling back in your search for it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sl2MrOPg_i0

[Brian Peacock]

I'm pretty sure Argument ad Youtube is a fallacy of some sort.

It is. It's a variant on the appeal to authority, and when you look it up on sceptical wiki the first example is from he who we shall not name.

[Animavore]

[pErvinalia]

I'm pretty sure Argument ad Youtube is a fallacy of some sort.

It is. It's a variant on the appeal to authority, and when you look it up on sceptical wiki the first example is from he who we shall not name.

Galaxian?

[Brian Peacock]

That's torn it!

[Scot Dutchy]

The kool-aid is being really drunk in large quantities. Keep sucking the tit and swallow all the propaganda.
Nobody is bothering to check the figures. Yeah they must be right. Why not answer the questions?

How is the data collected?
Is it collected in the same in every country?
What is the validity of the data?
What are the agreed definitions of what a Covid case and death is?
How long after a positive test is it still considered a Covid death and is the same in every country?
Is the data from Africa, India and Asia accepted as real data and how it collected when most of those countries dont even have a health care service?

Just a few to start of with. I will give you a clue; there are no answers which is why the data is worthless and not open to comparison

The arguments comparing data from countries such as the Netherlands and Australia have nothing to do with the validity of covid data from Africa, India and Asia. They are probably more inaccurate than data from western countries, not because of deliberate misinformation, but because of a lack of suitable government infrastructure.

And all data has a range of error and uncertainty, but valid statistical comparisons can still be made making allowances for such uncertainty. If accepted, your absolutism about data (in the sense of complete and utter distrust) means that no arguments, in in any direction at all, could be made, so discussion is pointless...

If you think I am unique in thinking this well think again. There are plenty of reports from various organisations from all sides of the social spectrum who do question the data.

Data around COVID-19 is a mess and here's why that matters

CANBERRA/NAIROBI/MANILA — Infections from the coronavirus have now passed 4 million globally, with deaths now running over 270,000. But experts warn these figures — used to understand the spread and impact of the pandemic — need to be treated with caution.

Data plays a critical role in the COVID-19 response. Researchers rely on case data to make predictions of how many people will likely be infected by the virus. Governments use this information to identify policies and measures they need to adopt and implement in their countries’ contexts. Aid organizations use data to help understand needs and target their interventions.

But their analyses and responses are only as good as the data at hand. So if there is underreporting of deaths in a country, modeling analyses picking up that data will likely underreport deaths in their predictions, said Nilanjan Chatterjee, a Bloomberg distinguished professor at Johns Hopkins University.

And that will have an impact on how governments prepare for the pandemic.

“If the data is not as good, then our forecast in the future [will also carry] underreported deaths … and that will lead to under preparation [as these predictions] help governments to prepare how many hospital beds will be needed, ICU beds, and ventilators,” said Chatterjee, who has evaluated some of the oft-cited modeling analyses on COVID-19.

Health data experts, including professor Alan Lopez, director of the Bloomberg Initiative for Civil Registration and Vital Statistics, told Devex as little as one-quarter of reporting countries’ data on deaths may be trustworthy enough to support policy and decision-making.

“In some countries, we know the data quite well, but those countries typically are only covering 25 to 30% of global deaths,” he said. “Many other countries will take several years to produce reliable data.”

Unreliable data in advanced economies

While COVID-19 reporting is highly unreliable in many low- and middle-income countries, high-income economies also have challenges. There are lags in the detection of COVID-19 and reporting of cases, as doctors struggle to differentiate it from other diseases with similar symptoms, such as the flu. Official death counts in some countries change as governments add or subtract deaths, or revise their reporting methodologies.

The United Kingdom saw a recent spike in death toll after the government started to include COVID-19 deaths in communities, including in nursing homes. The state of New York also recently revised its reporting by including deceased individuals presumed to have died from COVID-19, but never tested for the virus. The change led to an increase in the city’s COVID-19 death toll.

On April 22, the Japanese government revised its reporting methodology for COVID-19 deaths by adding data for deceased cases that are still in the process of verification.

“There is a very good example across Europe through the EuroMOMO project, which is capturing excess mortality in many countries across Europe. And excess mortality right now is very high.

“So I think it will take some time for us to really understand which deaths are due to COVID-19 directly, in terms of the infection causing that death, and which of the deaths are associated with COVID-19 either because someone has died because they didn't get care for some other reason,” she said during the agency’s press briefing on May 1.

Just one of many.

[rainbow]

If you think I am unique in thinking this well think again. There are plenty of reports from various organisations from all sides of the social spectrum who do question the data.

You can only speak for your small country where any death with any comorbidity is not counted as a Covid death.

[Cunt]

But it was a video, and it echoed my incoherent beliefs! It must be right!

I actually agree with two central points made in the video.

• The woman should not have been arrested for filming inside the hospital without first obtaining a permit.
• The government is lying to the public about the capacity the hospitals to handle the Coronavirus epidemic.

Neither has anything to do with the topic of nurses our member from Yellowknife has been going on about recently. They don't even rate a mention in that discussion. It did not echo his incoherent beliefs. He just read stuff into it that wasn't there.

Nah, I just think of how spiteful and reactive the authorities are to any criticism of the official narrative, and how quickly they shut-down this for filming inside a hospital.

Or attacking a nurse who says it isn't so bad.

But the tictok dances are FINE. The weeping nurse videos are acceptable too.

There almost seems to be one direction to the authority exercised.

You also didn't mention how the LE both pointed out that the hospital could have showed a busy work environment (they have before) to refute the offending reporter, but instead, they released some corporate messaging.

I expect you to defend nurses though (unless they cry bullshit on the NHS) as firmly as you would defend teachers.

We all know that some teachers are inspired, and great. We all also know that if, as a student, you behave, do what you are told, and don't make any important decisions, you will be a teacher at the end of your academic career.

So it's a mixed bag. Nurses are likewise.

[Cunt]

Facts in a youtube video? Call me skeptical. Was the presenter a journalist following journalistic best practice? If not, they are probably just another of your biased sources with an agenda to promulgate.

If you can list your notion of 'best practices', I can try to figure it out (or you can)

Even funnier, list those notions, THEN tell me who you believe to be UNbiased.

[Brian Peacock]

But it was a video, and it echoed my incoherent beliefs! It must be right!

I actually agree with two central points made in the video.

• The woman should not have been arrested for filming inside the hospital without first obtaining a permit.
• The government is lying to the public about the capacity the hospitals to handle the Coronavirus epidemic.

Neither has anything to do with the topic of nurses our member from Yellowknife has been going on about recently. They don't even rate a mention in that discussion. It did not echo his incoherent beliefs. He just read stuff into it that wasn't there.

Nah, I just think of how spiteful and reactive the authorities are to any criticism of the official narrative, and how quickly they shut-down this for filming inside a hospital.

Or attacking a nurse who says it isn't so bad.

But the tictok dances are FINE. The weeping nurse videos are acceptable too.

There almost seems to be one direction to the authority exercised.

You also didn't mention how the LE both pointed out that the hospital could have showed a busy work environment (they have before) to refute the offending reporter, but instead, they released some corporate messaging.

I expect you to defend nurses though (unless they cry bullshit on the NHS) as firmly as you would defend teachers.

We all know that some teachers are inspired, and great. We all also know that if, as a student, you behave, do what you are told, and don't make any important decisions, you will be a teacher at the end of your academic career.

So it's a mixed bag. Nurses are likewise.

Now you're arguing against the idea that all nurses are angels, which is a point nobody actually made. That's called a strawman argument - which is a fallacy.

[JimC]

Replying to Scot's post here:

viewtopic.php?p=1888916#p1888916

My posts on the matter agree that there is uncertainty in the data, particularly in third world countries. However, there are 2 important points:

1. In general, western countries with modern infrastructure generally have much less uncertainty in their data than the third world. Virtually all the posts by Hermit or others, regarding mask wearing or other anti-civid measures, made comparisons between places like the Netherlands, Germany, Australia, New Zealand, the US and the UK, using well-publicised data from respected academic institutions. When there are very large and consistent patterns in such data, they can reasonably be accepted as valid.

2. The thrust of the article you quoted about data difficulties was that under-reporting is the dominant pattern - figures from excess mortality comparisons support this unequivocally. Much of your early posting about the virus was to play down its severity and impact (just like the strident calls from various right-wing world leaders...)

[Cunt]

Nah, I just think of how spiteful and reactive the authorities are to any criticism of the official narrative, and how quickly they shut-down this for filming inside a hospital..

Now you're arguing against the idea that all nurses are angels, which is a point nobody actually made. That's called a strawman argument - which is a fallacy.

Careful what you focus on, it'll show your focus.

[JimC]

And the award for meaningless, pointless non-sequiturs goes to....

Cunt!

(soon to be named champion in perpetuity...)

[Cunt]

I'm sure you see nothing wrong with the response from the authorities.

I'm not sure you would be free to express it, if you DID see something wrong.

Which country are you in again? One of the shitholes that arrests people for having contrary opinions online? It sort of makes it tough to speak out, so I understand when people don't.

[Joe]

Replying to Scot's post here:

viewtopic.php?p=1888916#p1888916

My posts on the matter agree that there is uncertainty in the data, particularly in third world countries. However, there are 2 important points:

1. In general, western countries with modern infrastructure generally have much less uncertainty in their data than the third world. Virtually all the posts by Hermit or others, regarding mask wearing or other anti-civid measures, made comparisons between places like the Netherlands, Germany, Australia, New Zealand, the US and the UK, using well-publicised data from respected academic institutions. When there are very large and consistent patterns in such data, they can reasonably be accepted as valid.

2. The thrust of the article you quoted about data difficulties was that under-reporting is the dominant pattern - figures from excess mortality comparisons support this unequivocally. Much of your early posting about the virus was to play down its severity and impact (just like the strident calls from various right-wing world leaders...)

I'm going to reiterate a fact that Scot ignored, but I think poses a significant hurdle for his nihilistic assertions about the data.

As for Hermit's numbers, the order of magnitude difference between Australia, New Zealand, and Japan's numbers and those of other countries is very hard to attribute solely to national differences. Without strong evidence to the contrary, he's right that their policies have the situation under control when compared to other developed countries.

Let's take the example of the US versus Australia, Per Hermit's data, cases and deaths per million in the US are 53 and 29 times more respectively than in Australia. To me, this can't be accounted for by the unquantified problems Scot lists. Until he can either put believable numbers to these inaccuracies or show by other measures, say hospital overutilization, that Australia, New Zealand, and Japan don't have COVID under control, the claim isn't really believable.

I'm certainly not going to take Scot's word for it. I'm willing to do so for some folks based on a rough personal credibility score I base on their posts, but unfortunately for him, I subtract 42 points for being told I'm sucking on a tit or taking the Kool-Aide.