The Coronavirus Thread

[NineBerry]

We are now at 800 cases in a single meat factory over a couple of days

1030 cases in a single factory.

[Brian Peacock]

Covid-19 Ro - the R-number for transimission in a population without immunity, treatment, or mitigation - was originally estimated at between 2 and 3. Recent data shows it's actually closer to 4 now. Re - the effective R expressed in a population, accounting for things like immunity and mitigation measures - is a retrospective assessment of infectibility based on a number of measurable factors including the number and rate of infections and the mortality rate among confirmed cases. At the moment the data on Re in the UK, somewhere in the range 0.5 - 0.9, has a 2-4 week lag and amounts to an estimated average across the country - it could be higher in some parts and lower in others. On the basis of the current Re the UK government have reduced the Covid-19 alert level from 4 to 3 on a 5-point scale - meaning that Covid-19 is "in general circulation", with the threat level moving from "severe" to "substantial". By the government's own metrics this means that we can now remove lockdown and other mitigation measures - which is something that's being heavily trailed in the media this weekend.

However, by suggesting that lockdown, social distancing recommendations, and other measures and restrictions are soon likely to be lifted the government seem in some confusion over their own measuring schema, the nominal threat level and the consequential policy changes they've predetermined for themselves. Ro remains the measure by which we can gauge how many people an infected person could infect, and we can see by the steep rise in infections at the start of the crisis compared to the slow fall in infection rates that followed the UK's early April peak that there's still, as the government says, a "substantial" risk of person-to-person cross-infection and with it the the very real possibility of a so-called 'second wave' taking hold as quickly as it did during Feb and March - particularly given that researchers now consider Covid-19 more infectious than they did only 3 months ago.

[NineBerry]

People were worried Muslim celebrations for the end of Ramadan could have created hotspots. Now there is currently a spike of cases in a district in Berlin where many migrants live. Right-wing publications were quick to blame the Muslims. Now it turns out all these cases are Russian immigrants with German ancestry and they are connected via an evangelical church. In fact, all the hotspots connected to religious services in Germany int the past weeks were evangelical churches run by Eastern European immigrants. Eastern European immigrants are the one community in Germany with most votes for the far-right party, which even publishes their advertising in Russian partly, in order to attract this very conservative audience.

Those evangelical churches are made for creating hotspots. Small crowded rooms. No wearing of masks. Singing, speaking in tongues, ...

We are now at 800 cases in a single meat factory over a couple of days

1030 cases in a single factory.

Turns out now, the earliest cases of those meat workers are members in an evangelical church run by Eastern Europeans and took part in church services there at just the right time to bring the virus into the factory...

[Hermit]

The prediction I remember is that everything will be over by Easter.

Trump:

Feb 10: "Now, the virus that we’re talking about having to do — you know, a lot of people think that goes away in April with the heat — as the heat comes in. Typically, that will go away in April."

Feb 26: "And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that's a pretty good job we've done"

Feb 28: "It’s going to disappear. One day, it’s like a miracle, it will disappear."

March 17: "I've always known this is a real — this is a pandemic. I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic."

Sounds really bad — until you compare it to Hillary Clinton's use of a private email server for official business while working as secretary of State under President Barack Obama and speculate on the horrific revelations that are bound to explode on 9 September 2020. They will definitely put Obamagate, whatever that was supposed to be, in the shade.

[NineBerry]

The prediction I remember is that everything will be over by Easter.

Trump:

Feb 10: "Now, the virus that we’re talking about having to do — you know, a lot of people think that goes away in April with the heat — as the heat comes in. Typically, that will go away in April."

Feb 26: "And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that's a pretty good job we've done"

Feb 28: "It’s going to disappear. One day, it’s like a miracle, it will disappear."

March 17: "I've always known this is a real — this is a pandemic. I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic."

March 25th

[Cunt]

The prediction I remember is that everything will be over by Easter.

I remember lots of experts making lots of claims, many turned out to be shit.

Lots of folks still standing firmly by the experts though. Even with Brix saying the numbers were off by about 25%., you'll still have people using those numbers, when the numbers serve them.

At least it doesn't infect virtuous protestors.

[Brian Peacock]

It has been seven weeks since Florida’s governor, Ron DeSantis, took a coronavirus “victory lap”, pressing ahead with a swift reopening program while berating the media for a “doom and gloom” approach he said bore little relation to reality.

“We haven’t seen an explosion of new cases,” DeSantis insisted during a 29 April news conference, a day on which the state’s Covid-19 tally increased by 347.

“There is a light at the end of the tunnel,” DeSantis, a keen Trump ally, added.

This week, however, it became clear that the Republican governor’s garden of roses is wilting fast in the face of a resurgent virus.

A period that began with Florida’s daily record of new cases below 1,700 saw eight consecutive days above that figure, five of them topping 2,000 and both Thursday and Friday seeing the highest numbers of all: 3,207 and 3,822 cases, respectively, eclipsing the previous recorded high by more than 35%...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... _clipboard

[JimC]

Yesterday in Melbourne, XR held a series of climate change protests in the city, which included street marches and blocking intersections (which led to some arrests). They made some effort towards spreading out for social distancing, all wore masks and hand sanitiser was available. However, IMO the timing was very poor. For the last few days our state has seen a spike in numbers, with around 15 new case per day (small beer by international standards, but most other states are reporting zero, or only an occasional new case). In fact, the government has modified a proposed relaxation of restrictions due tomorrow, not allowing increased numbers at gatherings etc. I'm well aware of the critical nature of the looming climate emergency, but a big part of XR's activities should involve getting an increasing number of the general public on side. I fear that this premature return to public protest may have the opposite effect...

[Hermit]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-21/ ... g/12377556

US President Donald Trump says he ordered authorities to slow down the rate of coronavirus testing because it was adding to the number of COVID-19 infections being recorded.

Mr Trump described testing as a "double-edged sword", saying: "When you do testing to that extent you're going to find more people."

"You're going to find more cases, so I said to my people, 'Slow the testing down please.'

"They test and they test and we got tests — people don't know what's going on. We got tests, 'We got another one over here'."

A wilful failure to face the truth, a blatant attempt to sugar-coat a problem, or a complete inability to understand rational data gathering?

Perhaps each of the above...

His supporters don't see any of this. That is the real meaning of "Trump Derangement Syndrome".

As if less testing leads to more knowledge of what's going on.

Meanwhile, Florida's infection rate is spiking. Between the 1st and 10th of June new infections ranged from 1.2 to 2.4% per day. In the latest seven days they went like this:

2020-06-14 +2.7%
2020-06-15 +2.3%
2020-06-16 +3.6%
2020-06-17 +3.3%
2020-06-18 +3.9%
2020-06-19 +4.4%
2020-06-20 +4.5%

There were 617 more infected people on the 2nd of June than on the first.
There were 4049 more infected people on the 20th of June than on the 19th.

Link

Governor Ron DeSantis blames the surge in positive cases on the increased testing happening across the state. There is no such correlation. There is, however a clear correlation between 'phase 1 reopening' and and a change of infection rates from declining to a slow but steady rise, and a clear correlation between 'phase 2 reopening' and a steep increase in infection rates.


From Forbes

[laklak]

They're out there running about like nothing has happened. The bars and restaurants are packed, nobody is wearing masks. Luckily the death rate isn't rising at the same rate, but it's early days yet, this could still be Crumple's wet dream. I'm staying home, wearing a mask, washing the hell out of my hands, and wishing I was someplace else.

[Tero]

Have a beer, lak.

[laklak]

That is most definitely on the agenda.

[Animavore]

But not in the bar.

[Cunt]

Weinstein's latest 'Dark Horse' podcast is a couple serious biologists talking about the virus, and managing risks (among more topics)

Does a hepa filter catch the virus?

The plane had an information panel which said that the recirculated air was hepa filtered. He asked, but was unable to find out if the filters were new, or if the notice about them was new.

Hepa is too big to catch the virus, strictly speaking, but since the virus is usually in a water droplet, it should catch them.

Lots of stuff about his field work in Jamaica too...but that's a bit off topic.

[JimC]

I'm noticing a trend, at least in the US data. The daily rate of new cases is remaining high, well over 20,000, but the number of deaths per day (in the past, often well over 1,000) seems to be decreasing a bit. I was thinking that the virus has killed a significant proportion of the elderly people with dangerous co-morbidities, and/or people with a particular susceptibility to its effects already, so a somewhat smaller proportion of infected people are currently dying. Just a speculation, of course...