The Coronavirus Thread

[Sean Hayden]

L.A. County Antibody Tests Suggest the Fatality Rate for COVID-19 Is Much Lower Than People Feared
The tests indicate that the number of infections in the county is around 40 times as high as the number of confirmed cases.

[NineBerry]

Well, If you don't do a lot of testing, you have a very low number of confirmed cases

[Sean Hayden]

The mortality rate may be much, much lower than feared. That's great fucking news!

[Cunt]

The mortality rate may be much, much lower than feared. That's great fucking news!

It sounds like it, but it seems a lot of people want to insist everything is terrible, and it's Trump's fault.

I would rather there be cheap, effective treatments, even if they were making the Trumpkids rich.

As it is, most are hoping for a vaccine, which will get someone else rich.

[Sean Hayden]

Well, if that's accurate, it would be like a miracle...

[NineBerry]

The mortality rate may be much, much lower than feared. That's great fucking news!

If there are no measures to prevent it, a lot of people become ill at the same time and this will multiply the death rate because the healthcare system will become nonfunctional. And even if you don't add this, assume a low mortality rate of 0.5%. Assume you would reach herd immunity at 50% of the population, that's 0,25% of the population dying. That's 1 million people in the us minimum if there are no measures

[Sean Hayden]

What are you talking about?

Is a lower mortality rate good news or not?

[NineBerry]

No, it isn't. In fact, is not news at all. An estimated mortality rate of around 0.5% has been what I have heard at the beginning of March already.

[Sean Hayden]

It is good news. It means the virus isn't as lethal as it seemed. The experts responsible for the study called it good news.

[NineBerry]

Do the local politicians use this "result" to justify certain political decisions?

[Sean Hayden]

"result"

[NineBerry]

https://www.politico.com/states/califor ... ed-1278211

[Cunt]

Do the local politicians use this "result" to justify certain political decisions?

Tell me, NB, would there be any deaths caused by the shutdown?

If so, how do you even talk about the trade-off between death-by-covid and death-by-shutdown?

It almost sounds like you don't see a downside to continuing the shutdown, when there is clearly a HUGE downside.

[Sean Hayden]

https://www.politico.com/states/califor ... ed-1278211

Yes, the experts acknowledge the potential flaws in their study, just like all studies do.

"result" in scare quotes just seems like a bit much...a stretch...and for what, to avoid saying a lower fatality rate is good!?

I'm looking for greener pastures man.

[Brian Peacock]

The mortality rate may be much, much lower than feared. That's great fucking news!

We knew it would be because the majority of people who've had it didn't require medical attention or get tested. The infection itself is still about 4x more likely to kill you if you get it that the regular seasonal flu though.

However, the UK has only been reporting hospital deaths and not counting care home deaths and deaths in the community. From the Financial Times yesterday...

UK coronavirus deaths more than double official figure, according to FT study

The coronavirus pandemic has already caused as many as 41,000 deaths in the UK, according to a Financial Times analysis of the latest data from the Office for National Statistics.

The estimate is more than double the official figure of 17,337 released by ministers on Tuesday, which is updated daily and only counts those who have died in hospitals after testing positive for the virus.

The FT extrapolation, based on figures from the ONS that were also published on Tuesday, includes deaths that occurred outside hospitals updated to reflect recent mortality trends.

The analysis also supports emerging evidence that the peak of deaths in the UK occurred on April 8 with the mortality rate gradually trending lower since, despite the 823 hospital deaths announced on Tuesday, which were sharply up on the 449 in the previous 24 hours.

The ONS data showed that deaths registered in the week ending April 10 were 75 per cent above normal in England and Wales, the highest level for more than 20 years.

There were 18,516 deaths registered during that period compared with the most recent five-year average of 10,520 for the same week of the year. There were similar patterns in Scotland and Northern Ireland 

Nick Stripe, head of life events at the Office for National Statistics, said the figure was “unprecedented”, especially as the weather had been sunny and warm in the run-up to the Easter weekend...

If accurate that's a mortality rate of around 1:1500 per head of population, which is pretty significant.

Spain, Italy, and The Netherlands have all reported a significantly higher seasonal mortality rate than can be fully accounted for my the registered Covid-19 deaths alone.