US Election 2020

[Tero]

Biden and electoral college
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics ... -wisconsin

voter manipulation at polls not likely to occur in Wisconsin. I don't actually believe Russian hacking of voting machines happened

“We kind of regard Michigan as Trump’s flukiest win,” said John Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia, noting that they have the state in the “leans blue” column. Democrats scored some important victories in Michigan in the 2018 midterms, and the same goes for Pennsylvania. “The Democrats did pretty well in the suburban parts of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, and in a close national race, it’s easy to see Pennsylvania flipping back to blue,” Coleman added.

Wisconsin is the big question mark in the Upper Midwest. The situation for Democrats isn’t dire for Democrats in the Badger State, but it’s not great, either. On the upside, Democrat Tony Evers won its governorship in 2018 over Republican incumbent Scott Walker, having a Democratic governor in general is good for the presidential nominee...

[Tero]

Michael Moore on the voting booth anarchist:

The Jesse Ventura Effect. Finally, do not discount the electorate’s ability to be mischievous or underestimate how any millions fancy themselves as closet anarchists once they draw the curtain and are all alone in the voting booth. It’s one of the few places left in society where there are no security cameras, no listening devices, no spouses, no kids, no boss, no cops, there’s not even a friggin’ time limit. You can take as long as you need in there and no one can make you do anything. You can push the button and vote a straight party line, or you can write in Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck. There are no rules. And because of that, and the anger that so many have toward a broken political system, millions are going to vote for Trump not because they agree with him, not because they like his bigotry or ego, but just because they can. Just because it will upset the apple cart and make mommy and daddy mad. And in the same way like when you’re standing on the edge of Niagara Falls and your mind wonders for a moment what would that feel like to go over that thing, a lot of people are going to love being in the position of puppetmaster and plunking down for Trump just to see what that might look like. Remember back in the ‘90s when the people of Minnesota elected a professional wrestler as their governor? They didn’t do this because they’re stupid or thought that Jesse Ventura was some sort of statesman or political intellectual. They did so just because they could. Minnesota is one of the smartest states in the country. It is also filled with people who have a dark sense of humor — and voting for Ventura was their version of a good practical joke on a sick political system. This is going to happen again with Trump.

2016
https://michaelmoore.com/trumpwillwin/

[Hermit]

So, come November it's either Biden or Sanders versus Trump.

The most likely scenario: Biden can't avoid televised debates with Trump. Trump effortlessly makes Biden look like the demented fool that he has become. In fact, even without the debates Trump will make him look that way. It's too easy. Biden practically makes himself look like the demented fool because that is what he has become. Voters decide they prefer to be led by a sociopath than a demented fool. 20% of Sanders supporters do what they've done four years earlier and either don't vote at all or vote for trump. Trump wins.

The less likely scenario: Sanders puts up a good show during televised debates with Trump, but Trump, with massive assistance of most of the mainstream fake news media he so hates, paints him as a communist. Trump has never lost the support of 40-45% of the voters. Enough of the rest decide they prefer to be led by a sociopath than a communist. Trump wins.


O, wonder!
How many goodly creatures are there here!
How beauteous mankind is! O brave new world,
That has such people in't!

[JimC]

[pErvinalia]

I'm not ready to write off Sanders beating Trump. Polls support him over Trump, and he will grab some disaffected Trump voters as well. It will be a hard task given the certainty of a SOCIALISM!!1 scare campaign, but I still think he is in with a reasonable shot.

[Tero]

Well, Hermit, I have to admit with the debate and the casual gut feel people vote with, the remaining candidates are weak. The ones left behind were better at everyday politics.

But that is not what Trump is about. His supporters do not care if government is working or not.

[pErvinalia]

[Seabass]

[JimC]

You could use that meme with a Tasmanian politician too...

[Hermit]

I'm not ready to write off Sanders beating Trump. Polls support him over Trump, and he will grab some disaffected Trump voters as well. It will be a hard task given the certainty of a SOCIALISM!!1 scare campaign, but I still think he is in with a reasonable shot.

When I wrote "less likely scenario" I should have written "hypothetical scenario" It's all academic. Sanders will be axed at the Democratic National Convention in July.

[Scot Dutchy]

I agree with Hermit but that has been my feelings all along. All this waste of money. Sanders is far too old and that is a simple as it gets. The whole corrupt machine is behind Trump. The 1% want him and will put up any amount of money to get him.

[Tero]

Republicans starting to "investigate" Hunter. There is no point to conclude (nothing will be found), stretch it to election:

NYT
Mr. Biden’s campaign has branded the Johnson investigation an abuse of congressional authority and maintained that it would find no evidence of wrongdoing by the former vice president or his family. But Democrats are concerned that Republicans are trying to recreate their playbook for the run-up to the 2016 election, when Mr. Trump — aided by Republicans and Fox News —
worked to weaponize a steady stream of small disclosures from an investigation into Hillary Clinton to cast her as secretive and potentially corrupt.

Some Republicans have privately voiced discomfort about the effort. On Thursday, Senator Mitt Romney, Republican of Utah and a member of the Homeland Security ...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/us/p ... ation.html

[laklak]

What goes around comes around. The next Democratic president will be impeached.

[Cunt]

... there are no security cameras, no listening devices, no spouses, no kids, no boss, no cops, there’s not even a friggin’ time limit. You can take as long as you need in there and no one can make you do anything....

This is terrible to think about, but has anyone tried to take advantage of this, by loitering in the booth so long that no-one else gets to vote?

I read about long (4-5h) waits for some elections, and the voters who waited were celebrated for their patience - rightly so. Not to say that this is what was happening, but has it?

If Sanders can find a strong mate, he might have a shot against Trump's rhetorical style. Trouble is, I don't know that he is famously good at making alliances. Still think teaming up with Bloomberg would be so unlikely that it might grab a lot more attention than other pairings.

[Seabass]

What goes around comes around. The next Democratic president will be impeached.

Probably, but he'll be impeached for something stupid like a blowjob, not for extorting other countries into tampering with our elections.