Brian Peacock wrote: ↑Wed Nov 28, 2018 7:52 pm
I find it interesting that your riffs on her character and motivation always paint her as belonging to the darkside. While you're riffing on this tune shouldn't other possible motivations be included also? If speculation in the absence of definitive understanding is, to a very great extent, an open question why are you inclined not to extend to Ms Ford the same level of charitabilitly you've already extended to Mr Kavanaugh? Your answer to that will, no doubt, be that your views are justified by this-or-that interpretation of the known facts - but in all your writing on this matter you've never once engaged with the simple fact that Ms Ford's presumed reasons to lie to the Senate committee (and yes, you are in fact calling her a liar) are not nearly as compelling and Mr Kavanaugh's reasons for lying, to wit: she has far more to lose and he has far more to gain: she has far less to gain and he has far more to lose.
I have never suggested she belonged to the dark side. I have suggested she is as human as everyone else. I find it interesting that it does not seem as if you are reading my posts before you respond to them. In the post I responded to, I did not say that she acted in accordance with an particular motive. I can't read her mind. I said she HAD a list of motives, and I acknowledged that Kavanaugh had a list of motives too. That's plainly true, isn't it?
I have not extended any additional credibility to Kavanaugh than I haven't extended to Ford. I do not "believe" either one of them. I ascribe to both of them the capacity to lie. I ascribe to both of them extant motives to lie. With respect to neither can I know whether they are, in fact, intending to lie - and with respect to neither can I know whether either of them are acting in accordance with a particular motive.
What I can do is test their claims. Claims can be tested for internal consistency and for corroboration or supporting evidence/proof. That's what I've done.
Nothing Kavanaugh said about the alleged assault or the party at which it occurred was internally inconsistent, at no time has his version changed, and he has corroboration and other support for his version of events. Ford, on the other hand, has internal inconsistencies (different versions of events), and no corroboration or support of any kind, and some points are simply contrary to demonstrable fact (e.g., the second door thing).
I have not refused to grapple with the motives - these are not presumed motives - these are possible motives. Frankly, i've never cared once if she "lied" or not. I'm not calling her a liar. I'm saying she has absolutely told bits that are "not true." As noted, she has told different versions of the events - they can't both be true - something must be untrue. I don't know which.
I can't read her mind or Kavanaugh's mind. The reason I've concluded what I've concluded is that I don't "believe" anyone in a situation like this (regarding an allegation of wrongdoing) - if a man is in the midst of a divorce from his wife, and he says he saw her ass-up with the pool boy pile-driving her in the living room, I wouldn't "believe" him. He would have to have proof. If there was no corroboration, I wouldn't accept his word on it. Also, if the same couple were divorcing and the wife said the husband raped her 10 years earlier, I wouldn't "believe" her either. I don't PRESUME a motive to lie was acted upon, but in both instances there is an extant motive to lie -- to gain something in the divorce.
Trying to balance who has more or less to gain by lying doesn't get us anywhere - it's no reason to believe the wife in that example more than the husband simply because in one's opinion she has more to lose and less to gain than the husband. Same goes in the Ford/Kavanaugh case.
It is not reasonable to do a balancing of motives or to talk about whether women lie at what rate, and whether men lie at some other rate. We're talking about two specific people, and whether to accept either of their truth claims requires us to examine their allegations for consistency and corroboration/support/proof.
If, for example, we had just their word and nothing else - like Ford said "he jumped on me and I thought I might die - he tried to tear my clothes off and I thought he meant to rape me - he had this raging boner too etc etc." and if Kavanaugh said "I don't know what she's talking about, we were never even alone together, I never did that." And, assume we know nothing else - no friends around, no party, no pick up and drop off, no calendar, no nothing. Just that Ford says X happened 36 years ago and Kavanaugh says Y happened. Assume both have no reason whatsoever to lie or fabricate, both are of extremely sound mind, and nobody was under any influence of anything.
Who would you "Believe?" Me? I'd believe neither. And, that would mean that if the sole remaining issue on which his confirmation is based is the Ford allegation, then I would confirm him. Because, we cannot have mere allegation constitute establishment of fact.
In the case we have in reality here, Ford's case is worse than the exact equal scenario I gave. Here, her own story is internally inconsistent - she told multiple versions. Also, all the witnesses she named don't remember. Also, her stories were all incomplete, with material facts that would allow verification or falsification missing. And, part of her story tends to show that she has her facts wrong (e.g. - two door thing, and therapist noting that she previously said she was assaulted by four boys, etc.). Kavanaugh's story does not have internal inconsistencies, and the only hay anyone has made are not related to the assault itself - for example, the argument over his drinking (he admitted to excessive drinking but not blacking out) - and the definitions of stupid yearbook quotes. None of that supports Ford's claim or torpedoes his denial.
Now, if he lied about yearbook quotes, one may well conclude that lying about the yearbook quote itself should cause the Senate to reject him. On that, it would, to me, depend on what he lied about and his exact words, but in this case, there has been no showing that he lied. There has only been a showing that people don't agree with what he said words or terms meant. If having a specific meaning of words that also have other meanings is a lie, then anyone who uses poof to mean fart is also "lying." Poof is a classic slur for a gay man - he's a poof -- but, poof can also mean to fart - she poofed.
The word boof is the same - boof means nowadays to take drugs up your ass - but that wasn't a common meaning in 1982, at least not that I can find - but, boof ALSO meant or means a kind of strong marijuana. It also means when something is screwed up - that's game is boof. It also means when you lift the front of a kayak up in the water to avoid a rock. In the early 80s it was a slang for buttfucking - bufu - boofoo - boof. Words have different meanings and in the US slang is and was very regional.
Forty Two wrote: ↑Wed Nov 28, 2018 7:02 pm
You and others have accused Kavanaugh of lying.
"Boof!" It is extraordinary to the point of ludicrousne that Mr Kavanaugh sought so blatantly to obfuscate and redefine a term when every English-speaking adult male of his generation knows exactly what it really means, and meant in the context he used it at the time. I'm sure you think his demeanour and responses at the hearing are consistent with his innocence, and I think they're consistent with a skilled practitioner playing fast-and-lose with the actualité, but please don't assume that I have a personal political investment in his appointment. My view is that of an outsider who watched only the Thursday sessions of the hearing as they were streamed.[/quote]
That isn't accurate - boof has had many meanings, and it has evolved. Early - as in well before 1982 - the Oxford English Dictionary refers to a boof as “a blow that makes a sound like a rapid, brief movement of air.” That word was used as a word for fart - like toot -- any of a number of onomatopoeic words - toot, boof, poof, and many others. It also meant a kind of marijuana - smoking boof. It also meant buttfucking - to boof someone. and, it meant when a thing was fucked up - that thing is boof. Depends on the geographic area, and the word is not the most common of slang terms.
It doesn't matter to me whether you think his answers were those of a skilled practitioner. I assume he is a skilled practitioner, and for all I know, he's knowingly lying through his teeth. I can't read minds and neither can you. However, his story is consistent, and there is no proof that he did what he's accused of. No corroboration, etc. And, add to that, that the named witnesses don't have any recollection, the shifting stories, and the incorrect facts stated by Ford - there is still no way to accept Ford's statement as true and Kavanaugh's false, unless one is going to go by the prejudice of who lies more about these things, men or women - and the prejudice that women who make these accusations have more to lose than gain. Those are not reasons to believe fact claims. I mean, not for me anyway - I use the old-school method of "is there any proof or reason to believe a claim..."
Brian Peacock wrote:
Forty Two wrote: ↑Wed Nov 28, 2018 7:02 pm
Why would he lie? When you answer that question, you have yourself a possible motive. It doesn't mean he did it, or did it for that reason, but it does mean he had a possible motive. That's no more of a trope or conspiracy theory than Ford might lie for reasons of her own.
So, in effect, all you have to support your view is the 'everybody lies' narrative. I've pointed this out before. My issue is that that narrative appears to be being applied discriminately, that is; it's applied more to one side than the other and it doesn't take account of the fact that Ms Ford was quite open about what she didn't know, couldn't remember, and wouldn't be drawn to speculate on, whereas Mr Kavanaugh laughably evaded any similar acknowledgements and admissions - which would have been quite understandable in the circumstances if they had been forthcoming - and patently resented even be asked searching questions. His demeanour didn't inspire confidence, and his abject refusal to place the matter in the hands of the FBI does not speak well to someone who expects exoneration in such circumstances. If this was a job interview he failed it at that point for me.
Again, are you reading my posts? No, it's not "all I have to support my view is everybody lies." My point here was that both of them do, in fact, have a motive to lie. You have now three times diverted from that point, and tried to make some larger claim. Rewind - Ford does, in fact, have a motive to lie. Also, women do, like every other human, lie from time to time, and some women lie about assault. Also, it's not necessary that she be "lying" to be wrong/incorrect about a 36 year old allegation. What I have to support my view is quite a lot - I've written much of it over and over and summarized it again and again. It's not just "everybody lies." It's also - among other things - Ford's inconsistent stories told (different versions), the fact that not a single person corroborates her, and her story is incomplete (particularly where we might get verification or falsification), and I won't repeat everything.
I have not applied anything discriminately. Whether either of them seemed forthcoming or not has nothing much to do with it - although I don't see where he laughably evaded acknowledging not remembering things. Where did he do that?
So she seemed forthcoming about not remembering things -- she also told different versions of events, which were inconsistent. There still remains no proof of any of it, and the witnesses she said were there don't remember anything about it - not just that their recollections are foggy - they witnesses say either there was no such part or they don't remember any such party. Doesn't matter if Kavanaugh was angry at having to answer questions about yearbook innuendo. The question isn't his demeanor - the question is whether he assaulted her. His demeanor is certainly relevant to his confirmation, but it's not relevant to whether Ford's claims are true or demonstrated or proved or supported even by a shred of evidence.
Brian Peacock wrote:
Forty Two wrote: ↑Wed Nov 28, 2018 7:02 pm
It's not a trope or conspiracy to acknowledge the unassailable, true fact that women, just like men, sometimes lie, and they typically have a reason for doing so.
STOP PRESS!! Everyone has a reason for lying, when they lie. However, simply imagining the circumstances in which someone might lie, and speculating on that imagined scenario, is, when relied upon to support a declarative statement, an example of the teleological fallacy. The conspiracy I'm referring to is conceptual, a narrative which constantly touts the imaginary as being commensurate with the actuality on the basis of a supposedly common-sense observation, that 'Everybody lies': here it just becomes a recipe for claiming personal ownership of a truth regardless of the facts, as it necessary places everybody in the liar category. We're then asked to judge on which party we think is the bigger liar. I could go on, but I'm sure you get the point.
Again, please focus on what I actually say. I did not say that either were lying or either were acting on a given motive - I was saying that a motive exists. I've explained this carefully. Sometimes there is no motive to lie - where someone has no ax to grind, nothing to gain, nothing motivating the person to lie.
Look - I am not saying that anyone IS a liar. Think carefully here. Follow me. Having a MOTIVE to lie, does not mean one is actually lying. Not having a motive to lie does not mean one is telling the truth. Motive is relevant to believability, for sure - all else being equal, if someone would gain $1 million by lying, then we have a good reason to be suspicious. That doesn't mean the person is lying.
Anyway - a few quick questions for you:
Do you agree that Ford told different versions of events at different times?
Do you agree that Ford's story about the second front door is demonstrably incorrect?
Do you agree that the witnesses named by Ford all said they have no recollection of the party in question?
Do you agree that you are aware of no direct evidence outside of Ford's own testimony to corroborate her allegation?
Do you agree that you are not aware of any circumstantial evidence to support Ford's allegation?
“When I was in college, I took a terrorism class. ... The thing that was interesting in the class was every time the professor said ‘Al Qaeda’ his shoulders went up, But you know, it is that you don’t say ‘America’ with an intensity, you don’t say ‘England’ with the intensity. You don’t say ‘the army’ with the intensity,” she continued. “... But you say these names [Al Qaeda] because you want that word to carry weight. You want it to be something.” - Ilhan Omar