Tariffs, Tarrifs, Tarrifs!

[cronus]

Prices go up but tariffs are a excuse not a reason...

Well - no surprises but that isn't actually true.

If a company is charged 20% of the value of goods to get them into a country, it might take a bit of a hit and absorb some of the new costs - notionally say 10%. That leaves the same goods costing 10% more in the marketplace. Trump is hoping (apparently) that this will either result in more of that sort of stuff being made locally or the country of origin accepting more American imports to 'balance' the trade difference. It is a blunt and very dangerous strategy.

You are always making the mistaken assumption people are rational operators. That's why this country is in the soup it is. Obviously the lack of machinery, tech know how and wherewithal both in the states and here mean there will be no replacement for lost trade.

[pErvinalia]

Prices go up but tariffs are a excuse not a reason...

Interesting random collection of words.

[Rum]

Prices go up but tariffs are a excuse not a reason...

Well - no surprises but that isn't actually true.

If a company is charged 20% of the value of goods to get them into a country, it might take a bit of a hit and absorb some of the new costs - notionally say 10%. That leaves the same goods costing 10% more in the marketplace. Trump is hoping (apparently) that this will either result in more of that sort of stuff being made locally or the country of origin accepting more American imports to 'balance' the trade difference. It is a blunt and very dangerous strategy.

You are always making the mistaken assumption people are rational operators. That's why this country is in the soup it is. Obviously the lack of machinery, tech know how and wherewithal both in the states and here mean there will be no replacement for lost trade.

This country is in the soup it is because I am 'always making the mistaken assumption people are rational operators'? Well who knew??

I have no real idea what you are saying..nor do you I suspect.

[pErvinalia]

It's got to be an act, surely. Surely?

[cronus]

It's got to be an act, surely. Surely?

I put a lot of effort into explaining things. One of us can't be wrong?

[Rum]

It's got to be an act, surely. Surely?

I've relented of late. You may remember I was getting almost as annoying as Crumple himself with my outbursts at his incoherence. No longer. I am much more at peace as a result.

[Tero]

A manufacturer is not going to ”absorb” anything, They will just make a product more cheaply, say with less plastic per unit. The importer pays the tariff. Product on shelf stays same price but looks cheaper.

[rainbow]

[Rum]

A manufacturer is not going to ”absorb” anything, They will just make a product more cheaply, say with less plastic per unit. The importer pays the tariff. Product on shelf stays same price but looks cheaper.

It depends on the manufacturer I would have thought. Some will try to cut their costs, others increase production, some will look for other markets and some might reduce their profit margin - any combination of the above.

In terms of outcome I'm not quite sure what Trump hopes will be achieved and given his reputation (for anyone with a bit of intelligence anyway) one can be tempted into thinking he is just plain wrong. Here'a a well judged argument looking at both sides from the well respected (here anyway) Spectator:

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/06/are ... d-against/

[Svartalf]

I don't think frump is trying to achieve anything in particular, he just wants to be seen doing stuff...

[laklak]

I think he's looking more for access to their markets. It has, honestly, been a very un-level playing field, so I understand it from that perspective. Whether it works, well, who fucking knows? We can't compete with Chinese slave labor, but we can grow the fuck out of wheat and corn and beef.

And jellyfish. There are some shrimpers up on the Gulf Coast who have switched to jellyfish because the Chinese eat them by the billions.

[Svartalf]

except that has nothing to do with the Chinese market which is culturally more rice and pork/poultry oriented...
except the jellyfish of course, I don't see how they can eat that, but they do.

[Tero]

The Chinese are running out of land. All of Asia is. There is room up north where nothing grows. They buy a huge amount of animal feed from US.

China drops tariffs on animal feed from Asian countries as U.S. dispute escalates
China will drop tariffs on soybeans, soymeal, soybean cake, rapeseed and fishmeal originating from Bangladesh, India, Laos, South Korea and Sri Lanka from July 1, the ministry said.

Tariffs on soybeans are currently at 3 percent, rapeseed at 9 percent, soybean meal and cake at 5 percent and are 2 percent on fishmeal.
https://in.reuters.com/article/china-us ... NKBN1JM0K6

[Joe]

Maybe. Our government could do a lot to help people out with drug costs, but they haven't. It seems like a no-brainer to use it's purchasing power to drive prices down, but one thing I've learned from watching this stuff for decades is that things in Washington are as they are because powerful interests made them that way, and keep them that way.

I'm not saying it couldn't happen, but it's not a slam dunk, where the tariffs are seen as negative by the majority of economists surveyed. When I weigh the risks versus hypothetical benefits, I'd rather not risk bringing in the next economic downturn any sooner than necessary, and keep it as shallow as possible.

Besides, Trump doesn't want tariffs to deter Chinese bad behavior. He wants to eliminate our trade deficit with them, which is an idea that was refuted in mind-numbing detail in 1776, when Adam Smith published The Wealth of Nations. It still stands as an effective argument today, but don't rush off to read it.

Here's a pretty humorous TL;DR.

I thought the last downturn was brought about by irresponsible bankers. What do these bankers think about the tariffs?

Downturns are part of the business cycle. The actions of business and government can make them easier or harder. The banks didn't precipitate the 2008 downturn, but their business practices made it much worse. This is my concern with tariffs, that they make the next downturn worse, which ends up hurting more ordinary folks.

As for the bankers, I haven't seen a survey like with economists, but I have seen concern that lending will decrease as a result of the tariffs, which hurts their bottom line.

[Sean Hayden]

I thought it was record that the last crisis was a direct result of bad banks. Calling it a natural downturn seems shady and in the same vein as the lesser of two evils pitch. You know what comes next, after China's behavior catches up with those riding just in front, 'nobody could have seen this coming'.

Except it's not natural, the lesser evil is not crossing your fingers and hoping you get what you can before it catches up to you, and many people probably did see it.

So what besides tariffs should the world be doing to make China a better trading partner?



































<--patting myself on the back for a near perfect run of bullshit up to this point.