Brian Peacock wrote:Forty Two wrote:...
Indeed, and if it's done that way, the national popular vote is not determinative. Instead of states being the unit, congressional districts. I.e. each representative is elected by a majority in that district. That is not the same as the majority popular vote. Some representatives will be elected by only a slight majority (or even a plurality, where there are several candidates for the same seat). Some representatives will have won with, say 40% of the vote, because two other candidates split the remainder 30-30, for example. Some representatives will win by 90% to 10%. As you can see, it's not outlandish to see a party win more seats without winning the pure popular vote. The Repubs can get more seats in Congress without having the majority nationally vote Republican, and so can the Democrats, depending on how it shakes out.
This is a peculiar equivocation. Nobody says that 'the popular vote' is the same as 'the majority of voters', just that the candidate which polls more votes that the others has won the popular vote. There is no 'pure popular vote' as opposed to some inferior or 'impure popular vote'. When it's a foot race between standing candidates to poll the most votes, the one that wins is the one with more votes than the others.
Indeed - and we're talking past each other here. Let me try to explain it a different way. If we chose the President like they do in the Parliamentary system, it still would not reflect the winner of the popular vote. It would reflect the winner of the Congressional vote. The makeup of Congress would be a function of the vote of individual districts. So, the party that wins control of the legislature would not necessarily have won the national popular vote -- i.e. the Republicans could control congress by having won the most districts, but not having won the most votes.
Brian Peacock wrote:
The same is true in a Parliamentary system, where there are multiple candidates for a seat, or where some districts/ridings are heavily populated by voters to one party, while other districts/ridings are near half and half. The parliamentary system also can result in a party with only, say 35% of the seats in the Parliament getting to pick the prime minister from their ranks, because they join with one other party that has 16% of the seats. That can result a party candidate that would not have achieved a majority of a popular vote getting the PM seat.
You're confusing 'the majority of votes' and 'the popular vote' again. Certainly, depending on how boroughs, ridings, constituencies, or whatever are organised a party could gather a majority of MPs, and thus form the government of the day, by polling less votes than their nearest rivals. This would amount to winning the 'unpopular vote' and, to my mind, it would go against the idea and principle of a what it means to talk about a representative democracy.
What I'm saying is that the parliamentary system does not elect a head of government on the basis of either the majority of votes, or the popular vote, and a PM could be chosen who would not have won either.
Brian Peacock wrote:
Had we had this kind of system in 2016, the Republicans would have picked the President, and the likely scenario would have been that a guy like Jeb Bush would be President, maybe Ted Cruz. Or, if the Pres had to be drawn from the ranks of the Republicans, then it would likely have been President Paul Ryan, or Kevin McCarthy, none of which would likely have garnered a majority of the direct popular vote.
What's the 'direct popular vote', as opposed, one presumes, to the 'indirect popular vote'. The national election of the President is a foot race between candidates, and what it means to talk about 'the popular vote' in this respect is that in such a race the candidate who returns the most votes wins. No amount of wiggling can alter this basic, and quite simple principle: the candidate who returns the most votes wins the popular vote whether you want to call it the 'direct', 'indirect', 'pure', or 'impure' popular vote or not.
A direct vote is when you vote for your MP in your district. You are voting for John Smith for MP from your district. So, you directly vote for him. You do not vote for PM. However, your will is accounted for indirectly when you cast your vote for John Smith, because then if he belongs to the winning party or coalition, he helps choose the PM.
When you talk about "the candidate" - there are no popular votes cast for the PM, except to the extent he's running in a district for MP, and then his constituents vote for him to be an MP, not PM.
I'm talking about how the PM is chosen. You don't have a popular vote for the PM, your head of government. You let your legislature pick the PM. That's perfectly fine, but it's not in any sense more "fair" than having an EC system which picks the head of government involving the votes of the separate states. If you did it like that, then your head of government would be chosen by several separate elections in your states, and then the states would pick the head of government. Nothing unfair about that either.
Brian Peacock wrote:
Yes, I agree, that the indirect choice of the President or PM by the House of Representatives or the Parliament does involve the indirect vote of the people for those representatives and parliament members. But, it does not equal the popular vote, and it does not mean that whoever is elected PM in that circumstance has the support of the majority of voters.
To win 'the popular vote' a candidate must return more votes than their rivals. I keep mentioning this because you seem keen to suggest that returning someone who hasn't polled the most votes is somehow just as fair and democratic as returning someone who has.
Look - in Australia, they don't even let the people vote AT ALL for the prime minister. That's not more fair than having a vote of the states. The US system is not meant to be merely whoever gets 50.0001% of the vote of the people. It's a vote of the States. It always has been, and it recognizes that the States are political entities that have interests taken into account in the federal system. That's fair.
The representatives in congress are like Ozzie members of parliament. They are elected by simple majority of the vote. We then have a separate election by each state (however they want to do it - by popular vote, or by vote of their state legislatures, or by appointment of the governor - whatever their state statute would specify). It's conceivable that some states would have citizens vote, and other states would have their state house of representatives vote and not even have an election.
I.e. we do not have a national election. We have 50 separate state elections. They then send their electors to Washington to vote for the President.
This is not a function of having a national election which "returns" a winning candidate. That's why on election night, it's state-by-state, and the issue is who won the election in Florida, New York, Texas, California, etc. etc., and not "who won the most votes." It has never been otherwise. And, it is not unfair because it's not unfair to not have a national popular vote for the head of government.
Brian Peacock wrote:
Another option that could be used under the American structure would be to allow the STATE legislatures to choose who the States opt to vote for President. That way, the people's vote is taken into account by their votes for their state legislators, and they would choose the President. Most state legislatures are Republican, just like most Congressmen are republican now. So, the result would be a Republican President again. Not Trump, but it would be an establishment republican candidate - pro free trade, pro small government, limit funding for abortions, oppose gay marriage, all that.
One could also say that parish elections grant parish commissioners the ability to choose county representatives, who could choose state legislators, just as easily as state legislators could choose the president, and argue that the President had been elected by popular vote - but this is farsical is not the kind of election people are voting in, so it's irrelevant.
There is nothing in the US Constitution that says there is to be a national vote for the President. The States choose electors who then choose the President. How the states choose the electors is up to them. The state legislatures make election laws about how that happens. Each state could do it differently - some could do it by legislature vote, others by popular vote. The reason is that it is not a NATIONAL election. It is 50 separate elections in 50 separate states, and always has been.
Brian Peacock wrote:
Your complaint appears to be that the EC, while taking into account the popular will indirectly, does not guarantee that the majority will of the popular vote ,nationally, wins. Well, neither does the Parliamentary system, which as I pointed out, indirectly involves the popular will, but can result in a PM taking office who is from a party holding only a plurality and who would not otherwise win a popular election.
The 'plurality' of a hung parliament and coalition in a first-past-the-post system of course means that each MP was elected by the popular vote in their area,
Of course, but that's nothing more than saying each representative in the US congress are elected by popular vote in their area. So what? We're talking about how the Prime Minister - head of government - is chosen.
Brian Peacock wrote:
and that who forms the government may not comprise parties or individuals who garnered more votes nationally than their rivals.
Exactly. The PM is not chosen by popular vote, and probably often is someone who would not win that post if the people were allowed to vote for or against him or her.
Brian Peacock wrote:
The UK's 1951 general election saw the Labour Party winning the popular vote but the Conservative party won the majority of Parliamentary seats and formed the government. That this can and does happen under various systems does not mean that all systems are somehow equal, fair, or representative, and it certainly does not mean that the winner by 'unpopular vote' can claim the mandate or authority of the electorate even if they can claim the mandate and authority of the system.
I never said they were equal. However, it's what I've been pointing out - that under parliamentary systems as well, there are times, based on the structure of the system, where the popular will does not control who heads the government, who is PM, and/or who is President.
You may prefer a system which would require all government seats to be elected by a simple majority of constituents, but then why are you not calling for Prime Ministers to be elected by a popular vote of the citizens nationally? Wouldn't that be the fair way to do it, and prevent any chance of a PM getting in office who is not supported by a majority of the voters who voted?
“When I was in college, I took a terrorism class. ... The thing that was interesting in the class was every time the professor said ‘Al Qaeda’ his shoulders went up, But you know, it is that you don’t say ‘America’ with an intensity, you don’t say ‘England’ with the intensity. You don’t say ‘the army’ with the intensity,” she continued. “... But you say these names [Al Qaeda] because you want that word to carry weight. You want it to be something.” - Ilhan Omar