Do you think Trump will run for a second term?

[pErvinalia]

Oh, now they give the finger to the establishment. Now that the US is changing its attitudes for the better, these guys decide to give the majority the finger. --well, how else should I interpret it? You've got the evangelicals. You've got the racists. You've got the Reaganites. All the most recent changes in our attitudes are at odds with all of those. They gave the finger to gay rights, to concern for the environment, for the health and welfare of everyone, to new approaches to treating drug use and crime....

fucking heroes, you anti-establishment rebels

That's the leftist line on it, but the reality was that what motivated the trump voter was economics, and their perception of job-related issues. They voted for Trump because they thought he would be out working to improve the US economy, business and industry so that more people can work and earn a living. It's the judgmental tone, too, that comes from the left that motivates people too - it's always an impugning of motives -- it's always a declaration -- just like Clinton said - that half of such-and-such are "racists...sexists... homophobic, transphobic...." etc. etc. etc. People get sick of that, and they say, "hey, being concerned about everyday issues -- being concerned about jobs, taxes, cost of living, illegal immigration, etc., that's not racist, sexist, and whatever phobic - fuck off with that neverending mantra..."

I agree with this analysis. Although, that's not to say that 'yebbut Hillary' wasn't right in calling them racist/sexist/etc.

[Forty Two]

It's not to say she was right, either. There is something rather silly in calling people who switched their vote from the black guy (twice) "racist" -- it was the flipping of solidly blue states that made trump win. It wasn't the battleground states called wrong, but arguable at the margins. This was Wisconsin and Michigan - which have been blue since Reagan - and which the media to a person - even Princeton Consortium and 538.com - thought were solidly Clinton owned states. Nobody thought they'd flip.

People aren't as racist here as ya'll might think. I really, sincerely, believe that, as someone who has lived significant time in the northeast, midwest and the south. it's an easy throwaway line - it's a nice, tidy explanation that eliminates the need to think to deeply. It just says, we lost because those asshole dumbass racists are so racist and hateful.

[pErvinalia]

It's not to say she was right, either. There is something rather silly in calling people who switched their vote from the black guy (twice) "racist"

This smacks of - 'some of my best friends are black'. And in any case, she was only referring to half I believe, so maybe the Obama cohort wasn't included.

People aren't as racist here as ya'll might think. I really, sincerely, believe that, as someone who has lived significant time in the northeast, midwest and the south. it's an easy throwaway line - it's a nice, tidy explanation that eliminates the need to think to deeply. It just says, we lost because those asshole dumbass racists are so racist and hateful.

You may genuinely believe that, but you don't view racism and other forms of discrimination the same way that a lot of us here do.

[Sean Hayden]

That's the leftist line on it, but the reality was that what motivated the trump voter was economics, and their perception of job-related issues.

Bullfuckingshit. You live in Florida, who do you think you're fooling? You certainly aren't fooling me, I live in HoustonmotherfuckingTexas, and I used to live in Florida.

Let's get real. You had the evangelical vote. They vote with their Bible. You enjoy the support of major racist organizations. That's not my view, it's just the way shit is. If they vote for economic reasons you know what they think the solution is. Like the evangelicals, the solution is always one thing, more God for the one and less color for the other.

[Seabass]

Hillary was wrong to call half of Trump supporters deplorable. 100% of them are vile and despicable. Every time I almost start to feel sorry for them, they show us who they really are:

No jobs! We love Trump!
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story ... ers-215800

“The thing that irritates me to no end is this NFL shit,” Schilling told me in her living room. “I’m about ready to go over the top with this shit. We do not watch no NFL now.” They’re Dallas Cowboys fans. “We banned ’em. We don’t watch it.”

Schilling looked at her husband, Dave McCabe, who’s 67 and a retired high school basketball coach. She nodded at me. “Tell him,” she said to McCabe, “what you said the NFL is …”

McCabe looked momentarily wary. He laughed a little. “I don’t remember saying that,” he said unconvincingly.

Schilling was having none of it. “You’re the one that told me, liar,” she said.

She looked at me.

The NFL?

“Niggers for life,” Schilling said.

“For life,” McCabe added.

[Tero]

Well, now we hope he runs, as he will lose by 6 million votes. He lost by 3 million last time, but that was not enough.
Polls are not completely wrong and if you look at the numbers, not headlines, the polls indicated a close election last time.

President Donald Trump will get crushed by any Democrat running against him in the 2020 presidential election, a poll released Thursday indicated. Asked whether they would vote for Trump or a hypothetical Democratic candidate in the next election, just 36 percent in the Politico/Morning Consult poll said they would vote to give the president a second term. That compared with 46 percent who indicated they would vote for Trump’s Democratic opponent, whoever that may be. A further 18 percent said they remained undecided.

Related: Are Democrats finally getting their ‘shit together’ to stop Trump?

The poll, conducted on the eve of the anniversary of the 2016 election, offers further bad news for Trump: Eight percent of those who voted for him a year ago said they would support a Democrat in 2020. In contrast, 3 percent of those who voted for Hillary Clinton in November 2016 said they would switch to casting their ballot for Trump come the next vote for president.

Indeed, Democrats appear to be more steadfast in backing someone from their own party than Republicans when it comes to Trump.

http://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-20 ... ats-706709

[Seabass]

Trouble is, they said he'd get crushed in 2016.

[Tero]

"They said" was the headline. Many forecasters did not call the three battleground states.

It appears the effects of the debates and that recording (if it had any influence on voter preference) have worn off and Trump has gained support among reliably Republican voters. This shows up in the RCP average -- Clinton had about 45 percent of the vote two weeks ago and her standing now is virtually unchanged. Trump, on the other hand, was at 39.9 percent in the RCP average two weeks ago, but he now sits at 42.7 percent in the four-way race. No major party presidential candidate in 2012, 2008 or 2004 improved their national standing by more than two points in the two weeks prior to the Monday before Election Day, yet Trump has improved his polling by about three points in that interval.

Does momentum or current polling signal definitively that either candidate will win?

No.

The candidate who leads in pre-election polls typically has the advantage heading into Election Day -- which makes Hillary Clinton the favorite (but not a lock).

For example, Obama led in the RealClearPolitics average by 0.9 points heading into Election Day 2012 and went on to win the White House by 3.9 points. The RCP national average also put Obama ahead by 7.3 points in 2008, and he won by 7.6 points. George W. Bush led by 1.5 points in the 2004 RCP national average of polls, and he won by 2.4 points.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

[Brian Peacock]

A good, juicy war agin a richly resourced nation with an easily suppressed defence capability should see his ratings rise.


Watch out New Zealand.