Austrian presidential elections today

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JimC
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Re: Austrian presidential elections today

Post by JimC » Thu May 26, 2016 2:20 am

Your post about electoral manipulation is simply incorrect. When you have 2 major established parties, not weird little start-ups like the Galaxian Party, they each have substantial followings. Of course this support may or may be eroded to a degree in any given electoral context, but in such a situation, 99% to 1% will not have the same probability as 50% to 50% - it would be exceptionally unlikely.
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Re: Austrian presidential elections today

Post by Galaxian » Thu May 26, 2016 2:44 am

JimC wrote:Your post about electoral manipulation is simply incorrect. When you have 2 major established parties, not weird little start-ups like the Galaxian Party, they each have substantial followings. Of course this support may or may be eroded to a degree in any given electoral context, but in such a situation, 99% to 1% will not have the same probability as 50% to 50% - it would be exceptionally unlikely.
Indeed, BOTH of them are extremes, and at the tail ends of the Distribution Curve. The 'natural' result (in a 2 party system) is somewhere in between to constantly varying degrees. Say, 63% to 37% one election, then 25% to 75% in another, then 81% to 19%, then back to 40% to 60%, etc. Only once in a great while would you expect a roughly 50% - 50% split, or a 99% - 1% split. Infact the 99 - 1 might be more likely than the 50 - 50, since it precludes civil war, and is more in keeping with mass psychology.

Read some research about subjects who vote for the popular ideology even when they KNOW that the popular belief is wrong. They'd rather cast in their lot with the miscreants than stand out as a tall poppy:

http://www.spring.org.uk/2007/11/i-cant ... ing-to.php

Do further enlightenment at several sites, such as:
http://www.spring.org.uk/2007/11/10-pie ... nature.php
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conformity :zilla:
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Re: Austrian presidential elections today

Post by JimC » Thu May 26, 2016 3:13 am

Close to 50-50 is a very common result in Oz elections, and in recent terms, governments have been forced to woo an independent to be able to govern.

Your posts, as always, demonstrate both ignorance and arrogance simultaneously...
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Re: Austrian presidential elections today

Post by Galaxian » Thu May 26, 2016 3:37 am

JimC wrote:Close to 50-50 is a very common result in Oz elections, and in recent terms, governments have been forced to woo an independent to be able to govern.
Your posts, as always, demonstrate both ignorance and arrogance simultaneously...
The repeated 50-50 surprise was what my first post started with. So congratulations on your 'discovery'. Your signature says:
"To be serious about gin requires years of dedicated research." Explains a lot. Best get back to your pastime :coffee:
The true seeker looks for the truth wherever it may be and readily accepts it, without shame, without hope for reward and without fear of punishment._Sam Nejad
There's no Mercy. There's no Justice. There is only Natural Selection! _Galaxian
The more important a news item, the more likely that it's a hidden agenda disinformation_Galaxian
"This world of sheeple has no hope!" Thus just 13 years left before extinction by AI_ Galaxian

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Re: Austrian presidential elections today

Post by pErvinalia » Thu May 26, 2016 4:07 am

Galaxian wrote:
eRv wrote:
Galaxian wrote:
NineBerry wrote:The previous post has exactly 322 words. This is very improbably and highly suspicious. Why do you not simply come out and admit that you are one of THEM!?
This :this: perfectly illustrates that high intelligence is needed to understand abstract concepts.

Galaxian won't even try to explain it to you. But for some others, here goes:
If every post on a forum is 322 words, then there is something suspicious. If every election has a 99% win, it is suspicious. EXACTLY equivalent is, if every election has a roughly 50-50 split, it has just the same probability as a roughly 99% outcome. Infact ANY SPECIFIC trait, when displayed repeatedly, is highly suspicious... that's how we define species. That's how scientific principles are discovered; by looking for repeating patterns in an otherwise chaotic Universe.
But explaining this to innumerate sheeple is rather difficult, and not at all productive or necessary. :read:
You need a dose of numeracy yourself. Of course in Australia it always comes down to about 50:50 split on a two-party preferred basis. That's because the metric used is TWO-PARTY PREFERRED! :fp:
You don't understand how preferential voting operates. Find out. Till then, go back to sleep :snooze:
Nope, it's you who doesn't understand. "Two-party preferred" measures, are NOT the same thing as preferential voting. Two-party preferred measures are based on ONLY the Coalition and Labor. Preferential voting applies to ALL parties and candidates. If you look at first preferences, the figures aren't 50:50. They are closer to 40:40 for the two majors, 10 for the Greens, and 10 for the rest. So your dippy conspiracy theory is simply wrong.
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Vector Bungle

Post by piscator » Thu May 26, 2016 4:52 am

I think Galaxian needs to be degaussed. His discrete probability distribution is fucking with my screen.

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Re: Austrian presidential elections today

Post by JimC » Thu May 26, 2016 7:01 am

Or deloused...
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Re: Austrian presidential elections today

Post by Scot Dutchy » Thu May 26, 2016 7:29 am

The Irish voting system delivers the same sort of result as Australia because of a very similar voting system. It is one of the drawbacks of preferential voting. A pure PR as ours tends always to produce a large party of about 40% with the others ranging from 5-30% which is why we always have a coalition.
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Post by piscator » Thu May 26, 2016 7:42 am

So you're saying the Irish aren't "pure"?

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Re:

Post by Scot Dutchy » Thu May 26, 2016 7:44 am

piscator wrote:So you're saying the Irish aren't "pure"?
The elections. :bored:
"Wat is het een gezellig boel hier".

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Post by piscator » Thu May 26, 2016 9:40 am

Just checking.

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