Could be getting better at hiding bodies and embedding journalists away from the action? I don't doubt the great moderation was real, social and economic, but it is over...and history over historic time presents no reliable signature for social progress. The Holocaust came after a century of apparent social progress in Europe. It is not that Pinker is wrong but that he is dangerously wrong and presents a reason for complacency when vigilance is required.Blind groper wrote:We are, in fact, "achieving the desired effect." According to Steven Pinker, genocides since WWII have been falling, and the number killed each decade is less than the previous decade. He cheats in his argument by quoting real numbers. How low can you get?
Pinker presents the kind of graphs Taleb Nassim argues against in The Black Swan. Sweet curves of delight cannot fit well with a non-linear reality except by ignoring reality.
