GOP Primaries/Caucuses Discussions, Jokes and Predictions

[Forty Two]

Jesus! I've never seen someone so strenuously defend a joke vote in all my life. I've never seen a Brit give a serious case for the Raving Looney Monster Party, for instance. I mean I see Trump up there and I'm waiting for someone to pie him, pull his pants down and k8ck him up the hole with a giant, red boot that squeaks. Even by reality TV Show personality standards he's stretching his 15 minutes.

He doesn't deserve the time of day you're giving him.

He has 754 delegates so far. Even if he didn't get one more, that's a serious candidate. And, he's leading by nearly 300, and getting further ahead with each new primary voting day....

Trump is polling very well in Wisconsin and New York, the next two states, which should push him well over 800 delegates to 850. He's leading in Maryland and Pennsylvania, and more importantly California and New Jersey too. Barring a real major change, he's going to be very close to 1237. If he gets that, he's the nominee.

[Animavore]

Trump is one of those people you put on the ballot to spoil your vote. Like when some people put Connor McGregor down on the last Irish election. You're not actually supposed to vote for him.

I'm confident if he does, by some sick and twisted miracle, get the GOP then you can wave goodbye to the GOP as the party splits.

Trump. Lol.

[Forty Two]

Trump is one of those people you put on the ballot to spoil your vote. Like when some people put Connor McGregor down on the last Irish election. You're not actually supposed to vote for him.

I'm confident if he does, by some sick and twisted miracle, get the GOP then you can wave goodbye to the GOP as the party splits.

Trump. Lol.

Unlikely. The party will split, certainly, if they take the nomination from him after he was close to winning on the first ballot. Then he'll go off on his own and guarantee a Hillary Presidency. However, if he gets the nomination, and the GOP backs him up, they can win. It's a longshot, but they can win. Cruz will never beat Hillary, though, that's for sure.

[Svartalf]

Jesus! I've never seen someone so strenuously defend a joke vote in all my life. I've never seen a Brit give a serious case for the Raving Looney Monster Party, for instance. I mean I see Trump up there and I'm waiting for someone to pie him, pull his pants down and k8ck him up the hole with a giant, red boot that squeaks. Even by reality TV Show personality standards he's stretching his 15 minutes.

He doesn't deserve the time of day you're giving him.

Problem is that it may have started as a joke vote, but it no longer is one, trummp is far too close to winning investiture for him to be a joke anymore, he's a risk.
Not that cruz is any better, he's the toy of the extremist religious far right and has stated he would gladly and thoroughly wipe his ass with the Constitution.

[Animavore]

He's not getting near the Whitehouse. I guarantee. He may be able to arouse support, but that will be exceeded by the amount roused against.

Trump. FFS.

[mistermack]

I'd like to think that Trump has no chance, and he's a joke.

But that's looking at it from here, with European eyes. I hope it's right, but we may be giving the American voters far more credit than they warrant.

If American voters are like American juries, anything can happen. They love big names. And Trump is a big name. If OJ can get acquitted, Trump can possibly get elected.

Edit: Just had a look at the betting odds, and Clinton is odds on. Bet nine pounds to win four is the best available from the British bookies. You can win three pounds for a one pound stake, if you fancy Trump. The odds are usually telling, but does it just reflect the British incredulity that a twat like Trump can even get the nomination?
I haven't seen how the yanks are betting yet.

Edit: Just found an article about the betting but it doesn't translate to British odds at a glance.
"Trump sits at +250 on the odds to be the next president of the United States, with Rubio at +800, Cruz at +1800, and Bush and Kasich both at +2200. Michael Bloomberg, a wild card for November, has been pegged at +2500 odds.

And overall the Republicans remain the +120 underdogs to win the presidential election in November, with the Democrats sitting as the -150 betting favorites."

Whatever that means. http://heavy.com/news/2016/02/who-is-go ... ers-rubio/

[Forty Two]

Jesus! I've never seen someone so strenuously defend a joke vote in all my life. I've never seen a Brit give a serious case for the Raving Looney Monster Party, for instance. I mean I see Trump up there and I'm waiting for someone to pie him, pull his pants down and k8ck him up the hole with a giant, red boot that squeaks. Even by reality TV Show personality standards he's stretching his 15 minutes.

He doesn't deserve the time of day you're giving him.

Problem is that it may have started as a joke vote, but it no longer is one, trummp is far too close to winning investiture for him to be a joke anymore, he's a risk.
Not that cruz is any better, he's the toy of the extremist religious far right and has stated he would gladly and thoroughly wipe his ass with the Constitution.

Not that Cruz OR Hillary is any better. Why do people ignore Hillary's positions? I mean, you have a candidate bought and paid for by the Wall Street Firms, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and JP Morgan, who has supported EVERY war that the US has been involved in since Vietnam. And, she is in support of the Patriot Act, she supports drone attacks across national borders wherein no authorization was obtained, she criticized Obama for saying that nukes were off the table as to Al Qaida in Pakistan, and she said she'd wipe Iran off the map. There is no bigger war hawk. She was against gay marriage and in favor of DOMA until the political wind shifted, and then she just flip flopped on that. She has been involved in numerous scandals, spearheaded the Libya fiasco, and has a reputation for dishonesty that is really not in dispute.

That's the thing here -- we get this complaints about Trump, but when the specific issues are looked at, he's really not as bad as the other two main candidates (Bernie really has no chance).

I think its his delivery, but really, the only time he goes off on people is when they go after him first. Take the Rubio thing -- Rubio comes after him, stating that Trump has small hands and that he must have a small something else because of that. So, Trump responds to Rubio, and let's him have it and addresses the nasty accusation, and it's TRUMP who is accused of lowering the level of discourse? Why? Why didn't they go after Rubio for making the crack in the first place?

And, like the protesters. Moveon.org organizes thousands of protesters with the intent and purpose to rush his stage and disrupt his rally, and when Trump supporters in the crowd get upset because they are getting screamed at, spit at and even pushed, it's Trump who gets the blame. In Arizona, Moveon crackpots chained themselves to cars in the middle of the highway, blocking traffic. And, folks wonder why the common man is in "fuck you" mode about this election?

[Animavore]

You're doing that thing again where when people are talking about Trump you starting talking about all these other people. We're not talking about these other people here. We're talking about Trump.

But yes. I think every other GOP candidate is utterly worthless. I think Hilary will at least keep a bit of order and stability. Though I think Sanders is the best. not sure why you are writing him off though.

[mistermack]

I would personally vote for Hillary.
Only as the least bad option. The US can't afford Sanders, and anyway, the two houses would strangle him.
As I said before, the lack of talent on offer is amazing this time around. Although you can hardly call Bush JR talent, but he did have a famous daddy.

[Svartalf]

VOTE CTHULHU
Why choose the lesser evil?

[Forty Two]

You're doing that thing again where when people are talking about Trump you starting talking about all these other people. We're not talking about these other people here. We're talking about Trump.

That's not irrelevant, though. When the complaint about Trump is that his views are out of bounds, to identify the competition as being just as bad or worse is not irrelevant to the competition.

You know, like if someone says "Trump is not qualified, because he had businesses file bankruptcy," it is fair to point out that three or four previous presidents filed personal bankruptcy, including Abraham Lincoln.

Or, if someone says, Trump is vulgar, it would be reasonable to point out that previous Presidents have been quite vulgar in their behaviors -- like Lyndon Johnson - who used to curse like a truck driver, and he even held meetings with his staff when he was sitting on the toilet, and he bragged about the size of his own Johnson to staffers.

And, if someone says "Trump is a loose cannon, because he may get us into a war," it is relevant to point out that Hillary is the most pro war candidate out there.

But yes. I think every other GOP candidate is utterly worthless. I think Hilary will at least keep a bit of order and stability. Though I think Sanders is the best. not sure why you are writing him off though.

Sanders can't possible win the nomination, which is why I am writing him off. Hillary only needs less than 600 more delegates out of the remaining 2,132 out there. Hillary is up over 50% in all the polls. New York has 247 delegates alone, and Hillary was New York's Senator. Clinton is crushing Sanders in California, and that's 457 delegates right there. Maryland has 98 delegates and Clinton has a 98% change of taking Maryland, according to fivethirtyeight.com. New Jersey and Pennsylvania are significantly favoring Clinton, and that's 189 and 126 delegates respectively.

In other words, she'd have to die or get indicted to lose to Sanders now, and I'm not so sure about the dying part.

[Animavore]

There's articles all over the webz saying that Sanders has more support than both Trump and Hilary. That he's raising more money than Hilary.

You have to explain this 'delegate' system to me. Why do they matter? And why does their nomination trump the voters?

[Forty Two]

There's articles all over the webz saying that Sanders has more support than both Trump and Hilary. That he's raising more money than Hilary.

You have to explain this 'delegate' system to me. Why do they matter? And why does their nomination trump the voters?

Well, they are how you get the nomination.

Each state has a number of delegates based on a population formula. Highly populous states have lots of delegates, like California with 457 and less populous ones have fewer - like Wyoming which just has a small number.

Each state holds a primary or caucus so that party members can pick a nominee. It's like an election -- generally people go and vote for whether they want Bernie or Hillary. Whoever gets the most votes wins the pledged delegates from that state (in a winner take all state) or a proportional share of the pledged delegates (in a proportional share state). The primaries and caucuses started a month or so ago, and last into June -- the different states hold primaries on different days, not all at once.

So, we are more than halfway through the primaries, and based on the various primaries that have been held, hillary has won more states than Bernie, because she wins more votes than Bernie does in most of the states. Also, some delegates are called superdelegates, which are unpledged to either candidate and are not bound to vote in accordance with popular vote. There aren't that many of them, but all of them have already committed to voting for hillary.

So, she's not far from clinching the nomination. If she earns just shy of 600 more delegates, then she can't possibly lose, because once she reaches that point even if Bernie won all the remaining delegates from all the remaining states, he would still have less than Hillary.

So, we know Sanders can't possibly win, because of Hillary's popularity in New York and California. She should get most of those 600 delegates from those two states alone. Combine that with maryland's 98 delegates, Pennsylvania's 186 and New Jersey's 126, and she's way past 600 -- barring something as dramatic as death or indictment.

Bernie has no reasonable path to victory now.

[Forty Two]

And, it's the same with Cruz. Cruz cannot win the nomination by winning delegates. The only reason I don't say he has no chance is that it is reasonably possible that Trump ALSO will not get the majority of delegates needed to "clinch" a victory on the first ballot at the GOP Convention. So, in that scenario, we have no idea what will happen at the Convention. If you think you've seen a circus so far, just wait until the GOP Convention if Trump is below 1237 delegates.....it will be fun!

[laklak]

American odds are either positive or negative. If negative, it shows what you would have to bet to win $100. EG -120 means bet 120 and win, you collect your original 100 plus 120, so total win of 220. Positive odds are what you win for a $100 bet, so +800 means you bet 100, get your 100 back PLUS another 800, total take $900.

I prefer the old style, 8:1.