Earth is Probably Unique

[mistermack]

An ape wrote the complete works of Shakespeare.

With a feather. Didn't even need a typewriter.

Fact !

[JimC]

No, you've got that wrong. You should say that it is incorrect to say that the monkeys can't do the problem (i.e. probability = 0). And the corollary is that you can't guarantee that it is possible they will.

Well, this is the odd thing; one cannot say that they can't do it in finite time. To me, this means that they can do it in finite time, but I'll admit that, in an infinite number of universes, no matter how long you waited, there would still be some universes where they hadn't...

This is weird shit...

[pErvinalia]

They can do it, but it's not a certainty. That's the whole point.

[mistermack]

Of course infinity is imaginary. And the weirdest things could happen, if infinity could happen.

Because, if you started an INFINITE number of monkeys off typing, at least ONE of them would type the works of Shakespeare FIRST TIME.

And, the way infinity works, it's even crazier than that.
In fact, an INFINITE NUMBER of them would type the works of Shakespeare first time. But most wouldn't.

[rainbow]

They can do it, but it's not a certainty. That's the whole point.

Are you sure?

[pErvinalia]

Yes.

[Brian Peacock]

But if their output is truly random, then we have to allow that it is possible that every combination of letters could occur. If every possible combination of letters could occur, that set would have to contain at least one combination that doesn't equal the works of Shakespeare. And it's easy to imagine one such combination of letters: the same letter pressed repeatedly (or thereabouts). The probability of this is probably minutely small, but it's possible nonetheless.

Sure. That string which is not the works of Shakespeare occurs.

In finite time.

Then, the tireless monkeys start again...

There will not be a single moment in time where you can say "OK, that's it, it can't be done". You keep going, of course; when it finally happens, it will be in finite time.

Ah, the Hibert Folio.

[rainbow]

Yes.

...then it is a certainty.

[pErvinalia]

It is a certainty that I am sure. Yes, that's right.

[rainbow]

It is a certainty that you are sure that it's an uncertainty.

Clear as mud.

[pErvinalia]

What's unclear, deary?

[Brian Peacock]

An Infinite Monkey Cage would certainly result in an infinite amount of monkey poop. I'm not clearing that up, no way.

[pErvinalia]

Are you certain?

[Brian Peacock]

Generally speaking, not really. But on the matter of monkey poop, absolutely.

[JimC]

But if their output is truly random, then we have to allow that it is possible that every combination of letters could occur. If every possible combination of letters could occur, that set would have to contain at least one combination that doesn't equal the works of Shakespeare. And it's easy to imagine one such combination of letters: the same letter pressed repeatedly (or thereabouts). The probability of this is probably minutely small, but it's possible nonetheless.

Sure. That string which is not the works of Shakespeare occurs.

In finite time.

Then, the tireless monkeys start again...

There will not be a single moment in time where you can say "OK, that's it, it can't be done". You keep going, of course; when it finally happens, it will be in finite time.

Ah, the Hibert Folio.

Hilbert?