The rise of the Ruble

[mistermack]

The Ruble seems to be rising from the ashes. Reports of it's demise seem to be a bit premature :

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from= ... SD&view=1M

If I were in charge of the Russian economy, I would have been quite happy to see the Ruble slide before I stepped in to support it. The more it slid, the cheaper it would be for Russia to eventually buy back Rubles. It would cost less of it's reserves of foreign currency, in the long run.
Maybe that's why Putin didn't seem worried.

The real losers are the people who dumped their holdings of Rubles at the bottom of the curve.
Of course, the low oil price will limit how far the Ruble can bounce back. But that was bound to happen anyway.

[cronus]

The Ruble seems to be rising from the ashes. Reports of it's demise seem to be a bit premature :

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from= ... SD&view=1M

If I were in charge of the Russian economy, I would have been quite happy to see the Ruble slide before I stepped in to support it. The more it slid, the cheaper it would be for Russia to eventually buy back Rubles. It would cost less of it's reserves of foreign currency, in the long run.
Maybe that's why Putin didn't seem worried.

The real losers are the people who dumped their holdings of Rubles at the bottom of the curve.
Of course, the low oil price will limit how far the Ruble can bounce back. But that was bound to happen anyway.

There's a difference between cerebral well read nations with chess as a national sport opposed to grunt nations with a ball. Politics aside.

[Hermit]

Dead cat bounce.

[klr]

Dead cat bounce.

Exactly. When you're down in the dumps, it's very easy to rise a lot very quickly. But it means very little.

Nothing to see here, move along.

[mistermack]

Ruble now steady at the same price as it was at the start of December :

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from= ... SD&view=1M

Wish I'd bought rubles when they had that massive dip. I'd be well in profit now.
All the Rubles that Putin bought at the time to support it must be showing a huge profit.

Seems like the people who mounted the attack on the currency must have caught a massive cold.

[Hermit]

Or the people who had a massive panic attack recovered from it. That's what the dead cat bounce is about.

[mistermack]

I don't think the main reason was panic. I think that there was more going on than just normal selling.

Saudi Arabia refused to cut oil production, when it normally would have done, given the massive drop in price. I think the main reason is to attack Russia's economy. And maybe to dent that of Iran at the same time.
Saudi is losing heavily on the price of oil, and it would only do that for political reasons.

It took more than the little investors to drive down the Ruble so dramatically. I think it was a plan, that failed spectacularly.
If Putin had good stocks of foreign currency, he could handle it, and make money at the same time.
All of his foreign currency was bought with Rubles that were much higher in value than they are now.
So every time he buys a Ruble back in, he's making a huge profit.
And of course, if the Ruble rises some more, he can buy more foreign reserves back in with those Rubles, for a lot less than he paid for them.

In the long run, the sanctions and scheming are hitting the west far more than Russia.
A weak Ruble means that yes, foreign holidays will cost Russians more. As will luxury goods from the west.
But home industries will be making more money. And employing more people. And new companies will be springing up to supply the Russian Market, in Russia.
It should lead to a healthier, more robust economy that is less reliant on oil money.

Not so bad in the long run.

[Hermit]

There definitely was an attack on the rouble. It came in the form of economic sanctions on Russia. Then the Saudis refused to adjust oil production downwards in line with decreasing demand, they way they've done so in the past. The motivation was probably to sabotage Iraq's economy, but it also exacerbated the rouble's downward trend. The financial market (read forex speculators in banks and other financial departments) panicked. It feared the bottom would drop out. When the rouble plateaued at its lower level the panic evaporated, and some speculators even gambled on the rouble rising again. Hence the dead cat bounce.

[JimC]

I want to see the rise of the groat!

[klr]

Rouble going down again, quelle surprise:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30623489

[mistermack]

Rouble going down again, quelle surprise:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30623489

Some of the drop in the Ruble is actually nothing to do with the Russian currency. It's partly that the dollar is rising. Since july, most currencies have dropped against the dollar :

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from= ... SD&view=1Y

[JimC]

Is it ruble or rouble?

[pErvinalia]

There's truble with the ruble.

[piscator]

You're all in Barney with the punananagraminaryans.

[mistermack]

Is it ruble or rouble?

рубль of course.