Cutting off the Ebola zone would be a mistake
Travel bans aren’t the answer: distancing ourselves from countries and people afflicted with Ebola could prove tragic for the world
The searchers of the town,
Suspecting that we both were in a house
Where the infectious pestilence did reign,
Seal'd up the doors, and would not let us forth;
So that my speed to Mantua there was stay'd.
SO SAYS Friar John in Romeo and Juliet, explaining his failure to deliver a message revealing Juliet's scheme to evade an unwanted marriage.
Shakespeare wrote those lines long after the Black Death first swept across Europe. But its frequent recurrences meant his audience knew exactly what John was referring to: quarantine, for centuries the only effective way to slow the pestilence's advance.
Today, we are schooled in the germ theory of infectious diseases and tooled up with medical systems designed to tackle them. But what if those systems are overwhelmed, as seems probable in some of the countries currently struggling with Ebola? The global threat, small at present, may swiftly escalate, especially if the disease gains a foothold elsewhere in the developing world.
What worked in the Middle Ages still works today, although now we call it "social distancing": reducing contact with those who may be afflicted with intractable diseases. Some, particularly in the US, have called for a ban on travel from the affected countries.
Such a ban probably couldn't be enforced, but the prospect of one may prompt exactly those people needed to keep things running to flee (see "Why closing borders won't stop Ebola's rampage"). Given the UN's struggle to collect the $1 billion it says it needs to contain Ebola now, there is no realistic prospect of it mustering the people, equipment or transport needed to maintain vital services in that event. In part, this reflects under-preparedness: we need the capacity to respond more robustly to potential pandemics than we have done so far (see "Global agency needed for battling infectious diseases").
(continued, call themselves scientists? why don't we have Ebola parties as well? whilst allowing free movement of a 70% mortality plague...)
