Why closing borders won't stop Ebola's rampage
Pressure is mounting for governments to ban the entry of travellers from Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea, where the Ebola epidemic is growing exponentially with 5000-10,000 new cases per week expected by December, up from fewer than a thousand now.
They have a point. Calculations published this week show that at least three people carrying Ebola are likely to fly from the affected countries each month, two-thirds of them to poor countries with limited healthcare, where they could set off further outbreaks.
Despite this, health and development experts are unanimous that a ban on outward air travel would be disastrous. Privately, UN officials warn that such a move could lead to a panicked rush of people across land borders, where unlike air passengers their movements cannot be traced. It could also cause further economic damage to the countries, threatening the civil order essential to fighting the disease.
A dozen African countries have closed their borders to people from the affected countries, but other borders are open. The US, UK and Canada are screening arrivals for fever. Last week US President Barack Obama said he would not rule out further limitations. Many airlines have already cancelled flights, meaning that there has been a reduction of between 50 and 85 per cent in the number of airline seats available from the three countries.
(continued, the python coils...the victim in denial...)
