GW alarmists passages still blocked.

[mistermack]

The ice in the Arctic has grown a bit more this year, on top of last year's huge jump.
It's still on a long-term trend of reduction, but nowhere near the laughably doom-laden prophecies of an ice-free Arctic.
And if you count the Antarctic sea-ice, which is at record levels, the GLOBAL amount of sea-ice must be pretty much near the long-term average.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

The fabled Northwest passage is still blocked at the height of summer, increasingly blocked, in fact.
All good news for Polar Bears, but bad news for the seals.

This climate change is taking it's fucking time. Or it's been wildly exaggerated.

[cronus]

The ice in the Arctic has grown a bit more this year, on top of last year's huge jump.
It's still on a long-term trend of reduction, but nowhere near the laughably doom-laden prophecies of an ice-free Arctic.
And if you count the Antarctic sea-ice, which is at record levels, the GLOBAL amount of sea-ice must be pretty much near the long-term average.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

The fabled Northwest passage is still blocked at the height of summer, increasingly blocked, in fact.
All good news for Polar Bears, but bad news for the seals.

This climate change is taking it's fucking time. Or it's been wildly exaggerated.

Complex systems often pause with regards change before complete collapse occurs. Don't take it as a good sign, it probably signals a catastrophic phase shift with the climate....to one which no longer supports life at all.

[Tero]

There is no "it has stopped" story here. BS.

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/arct ... uary-17093

Numbers/graphs
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

From your own source:
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files ... series.png

No story. Weather. Not climate.

[klr]

The ice in the Arctic has grown a bit more this year, on top of last year's huge jump.
It's still on a long-term trend of reduction, but nowhere near the laughably doom-laden prophecies of an ice-free Arctic.
And if you count the Antarctic sea-ice, which is at record levels, the GLOBAL amount of sea-ice must be pretty much near the long-term average.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

The fabled Northwest passage is still blocked at the height of summer, increasingly blocked, in fact.
All good news for Polar Bears, but bad news for the seals.

This climate change is taking it's fucking time. Or it's been wildly exaggerated.

We're talking about changes that are happening very fast in geological terms, but slow in human terms. Especially for the instant gratification junkies that have been sent to plague us.

[mistermack]

This climate change is taking it's fucking time. Or it's been wildly exaggerated. [/color]

We're talking about changes that are happening very fast in geological terms, but slow in human terms. Especially for the instant gratification junkies that have been sent to plague us.

That's perfectly fair comment.
BUT, we have been fed a diet of doom laden prophecies of what will happen in this century. Not geological time scales. It's obviously not going to happen. Or at least, it's not behaving as if it will happen.
And the time scale is absolutely vital. If we don't get global catastrophe by the end of this century, it's not going to happen at all. Because technology will overtake the predictions of CO2 emissions.
By the middle of this century, we will have solar energy at far lower cost than today. We could well have nuclear fusion providing carbon-free electricity, and a majority of cars running with electric motors.
And the world population will be falling.
If you combine all that with global warming of just a fraction of the levels promised by today's ''experts'' it will be a non-runner.
In fact, it's beginning to be a non-runner today. People who were passionate about it, just ten years ago, are now keeping quiet. It's gradually leaving centre stage, and dying in the wings.

[klr]

This climate change is taking it's fucking time. Or it's been wildly exaggerated. [/color]

We're talking about changes that are happening very fast in geological terms, but slow in human terms. Especially for the instant gratification junkies that have been sent to plague us.

That's perfectly fair comment.
BUT, we have been fed a diet of doom laden prophecies of what will happen in this century. Not geological time scales. It's obviously not going to happen. Or at least, it's not behaving as if it will happen.

There is a very long way to go in this century.

And the time scale is absolutely vital. If we don't get global catastrophe by the end of this century, it's not going to happen at all. Because technology will overtake the predictions of CO2 emissions.

So, just let the next generations sort things out. We'll be long gone by then. The problems that we have now - and some of what we are anticipating - are the results of past actions, not what is happening right now.

Actually, there is already a lot of technology out there that is either not being used, or being used to its full potential, because there are a lot of vested interests and nay-sayers out there.

By the middle of this century, we will have solar energy at far lower cost than today. We could well have nuclear fusion providing carbon-free electricity, and a majority of cars running with electric motors.

The lead time for developing reliable and efficient fusion power is measured in decades, and there is very little political will on the global scale to do this at present. As for electric cars: Great, I'm all in favour of them - but the energy has to come from somewhere, and right now much of it ultimately comes from fossil fuels or bio-fuels, which are nearly as bad.

And the world population will be falling.

It will have stabilised, maybe fallen slightly at best. But there's a catch-22 here: A slowdown/halt to population growth implies a huge growth in average living standards worldwide - the two go hand in hand. And better living standards go with higher energy demands on a per capita basis. This is not just a climate change/energy consumption issue: It's about every conceivable resource. The planet can't support 9 billion people living at (say) the level of an average Western European, never mind a US citizen. Note even with drastic improvements in efficiencies - production, consumption, recycling, lifestyle ... everything.

If you combine all that with global warming of just a fraction of the levels promised by today's ''experts'' it will be a non-runner.
In fact, it's beginning to be a non-runner today. People who were passionate about it, just ten years ago, are now keeping quiet. It's gradually leaving centre stage, and dying in the wings.

It's not really centre stage at the moment because we have what we regard (rightly or wrongly) as more pressing concerns on the international/global scale, and those dominate the news and public discourse. But that does not mean that the problem has gone away.

[JimC]

The alarmists passages are blocked, eh...

Perhaps an enema?

[mistermack]

The lead time for developing reliable and efficient fusion power is measured in decades, and there is very little political will on the global scale to do this at present. As for electric cars: Great, I'm all in favour of them - but the energy has to come from somewhere, and right now much of it ultimately comes from fossil fuels or bio-fuels, which are nearly as bad.

That's not really accurate :

Tokamak The most well developed and well funded approach to fusion energy. As of January 2011 there were an estimated 177 tokamak experiments either planned, decommissioned or currently operating, worldwide.[9] This method races hot plasma around in a magnetically confined ring. When completed, ITER will be the world's largest Tokamak.

ITER (originally an acronym of International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor and Latin for "the way" or "the road") is an international nuclear fusion research and engineering megaproject, which is currently building the world's largest experimental tokamak nuclear fusion reactor adjacent to the Cadarache facility in the south of France.[1] The ITER project aims to make the long-awaited transition from experimental studies of plasma physics to full-scale electricity-producing fusion power plants.

The facility is now expected to finish its construction phase in 2019. It will start commissioning the reactor that same year and initiate plasma experiments in 2020, but there is no plan to begin full deuterium-tritium fusion until 2027—if the ITER team can solve the technical challenges involved.

There are other technologies being worked on as well, like the giant lazer technique in the US.
But ITER is the most promising, and fifty billion dollars plus is going into it.
If it goes well, there will be working fusion power stations by 2060, roughly, and the big money that is going into oil and gas will be flowing into fusion technology, so by the end of this century, it's entirely possible that fossil fuels will be just memories.
And of course, if solar energy and fusion become cheap and plentiful, that's what will be powering electric vehicles.

[Tero]

And because there is a fusion reactor, we are not allowed to take any measures regarding global warming? Just treating the symptoms will be plenty. There will be refugees from areas suffering drought.

[Svartalf]

There is a fusion reactor? I thought the ITER and the like were experimental and generally not functional as such.

[mistermack]

There is a fusion reactor? I thought the ITER and the like were experimental and generally not functional as such.

The ITER will be experimental, but if it works well, the DEMO follow-on will go into overdrive.
ITER is expected to be trying sustained fusion for about ten minutes duration, from 2027 onwards.
They will have a good idea from that if DEMO is a viable project, and if it is, it will get the full treatment of mega investment, with other projects sprouting like weeds.

After all, there is huge money to be made. It's not all sanctimonious GW crap. It's about real-life money.

As a prototype commercial fusion reactor, DEMO could make fusion energy available by 2033. Subsequent commercial fusion reactors could be built for nearly a quarter of the cost of DEMO if things go according to plan.[2][3]

[Svartalf]

The Russians have already experimented with tokamaks without much success, IIRC, and if the Merkins have, that's not within my knowledge... plus they are working on, rare and costly to obtain, deuterium and tritium, why not work on simple hydrogen, or maybe helium?

[mistermack]

The Russians have already experimented with tokamaks without much success, IIRC, and if the Merkins have, that's not within my knowledge... plus they are working on, rare and costly to obtain, deuterium and tritium, why not work on simple hydrogen, or maybe helium?

A fusion reactor can make it's own tritium when it's running.
It may be rare and costly now, but not when a plant is in operation.

I doubt if the Russians put anything like the money and effort into it what's going into ITER.
From what I've read, the ability is already there to make ITER and have it run continuously for ten minutes or so.
The main challenge isn't so much controlling the burn, it's developing new materials that can withstand the neutrons.
They can and do run fusion reactions now. It's a matter of keeping it going for a profitable length of time.
What they are worried about is coming up against a brick wall, that can't be solved.
That's unlikely to be maintaining the reaction, because control computers are getting more powerful and faster every day. It's the materials thing that MIGHT be a terminal stumbling-block.

[laklak]

I find a good vindaloo generally unblocks my passages.

[klr]

The lead time for developing reliable and efficient fusion power is measured in decades, and there is very little political will on the global scale to do this at present. As for electric cars: Great, I'm all in favour of them - but the energy has to come from somewhere, and right now much of it ultimately comes from fossil fuels or bio-fuels, which are nearly as bad.

That's not really accurate :

Tokamak The most well developed and well funded approach to fusion energy. As of January 2011 there were an estimated 177 tokamak experiments either planned, decommissioned or currently operating, worldwide.[9] This method races hot plasma around in a magnetically confined ring. When completed, ITER will be the world's largest Tokamak.

ITER (originally an acronym of International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor and Latin for "the way" or "the road") is an international nuclear fusion research and engineering megaproject, which is currently building the world's largest experimental tokamak nuclear fusion reactor adjacent to the Cadarache facility in the south of France.[1] The ITER project aims to make the long-awaited transition from experimental studies of plasma physics to full-scale electricity-producing fusion power plants.

The facility is now expected to finish its construction phase in 2019. It will start commissioning the reactor that same year and initiate plasma experiments in 2020, but there is no plan to begin full deuterium-tritium fusion until 2027—if the ITER team can solve the technical challenges involved.

There are other technologies being worked on as well, like the giant lazer technique in the US.
But ITER is the most promising, and fifty billion dollars plus is going into it.
If it goes well, there will be working fusion power stations by 2060, roughly, and the big money that is going into oil and gas will be flowing into fusion technology, so by the end of this century, it's entirely possible that fossil fuels will be just memories.
And of course, if solar energy and fusion become cheap and plentiful, that's what will be powering electric vehicles.

See? That's exactly what I said. Fusion is a very long-term project, with no guarantee of success even in 15 years time, despite very significant resources behind it. And that's just to get one prototype installation working. God alone only knows how long it would take to get it to the stage where it's actually feasible, and then to roll it out on a large scale. It needs a lot more resources, and political commitment, to improve the chance of success, and shorten the time-frame.

We got from the first viable jet aircraft to putting people on the moon in about only 25 years, and that was due in no small part to the space race, and all the political backing it brought. But that was small beans compared to using fusion as a power source.