Another shot at the case against gnus

[Hermit]

Yey! Two down, how many more to go?
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlines/2 ... -incident/
we don't need them, we can train more fork lift drivers.

Both men held valid concealed carry licenses.

[Tero]

Sure. All kinds of idiots get to have permits these days.

[laklak]

...see you have graduated summa cum laude at the same school Seth got his degree from: The University of Advanced Cherry Picking.

Florida's murder rate/100,000 pop. in 2005: 4.9. That was the year it introduced its "stand your ground" legislation. Let's see how that panned out then, shall we?

2006 6.2I
2007 6.4
2008 6.2
2009 5.4
2010 5.3
2011 5.2
2012 5.3
2013 5.0....

No cherry picking, just using the numbers you provided and the population of the state. You're posting total murder statistics per 100,000, the numbers I presented were for gun deaths only. I assumed you could do the math for yourself, but I'll show my work if it's necessary.

[Seth]

Nonetheless, there was still a substantial increase in gun deaths co-incident with the "Stand your ground" laws being introduced...

Who got killed? I have no problem with bad guys getting killed, only with good guys getting killed, particularly because some fuckwit has disarmed them.

[Hermit]

...see you have graduated summa cum laude at the same school Seth got his degree from: The University of Advanced Cherry Picking.

Florida's murder rate/100,000 pop. in 2005: 4.9. That was the year it introduced its "stand your ground" legislation. Let's see how that panned out then, shall we?

2006 6.2I
2007 6.4
2008 6.2
2009 5.4
2010 5.3
2011 5.2
2012 5.3
2013 5.0....

No cherry picking, just using the numbers you provided and the population of the state. You're posting total murder statistics per 100,000, the numbers I presented were for gun deaths only. I assumed you could do the math for yourself, but I'll show my work if it's necessary.

Quoting a murder rate from 15years before the stand your ground legislation was introduced in Florida kind of ignores the fact that in the intervening period the rate of murder by firearm had dropped from 6.6 to 2.9 per 100,000 - which means it has more than halved, and so has the rate of all murder.

Following the stand your ground legislation there was a rather conspicuous spike in both. I made a couple of graphs based on the same data sources I used earlier. Can you now see why I said you were cherry picking or do you want me to explain it to you?

[laklak]

Kind of hard to cherry pick data when a) I used YOUR data and b) it contained only two numerical data points c) I used both of them.

[Hermit]

Kind of hard to cherry pick data when a) I used YOUR data and b) it contained only two numerical data points c) I used both of them.

Ahem. You used a data point that preceded the stand your ground legislation by 15 years, and ignored that murder rates, no matter whether they were about all murders in Florida, or murders by firearms had more than halved by the time the aforementioned legislation was implemented. I pointed out that there was a spike in both rates since that implementation, and that those rates were still higher in 2013 than in the year that said law was implemented. The graphs I constructed from the available data make it abundantly clear that you indulged in blatant cherry picking and I did not.

[laklak]

I didn't pick the data points, you did. Your graph showed the years from 1990 to 2013. I used your numbers from your graph, what more can I say? You presented the data, you picked the years for your graph, you put the numbers on it. All I did was point out that the raw numbers didn't take into account the massive population increase from 1990 to 2013 and that the murder rate per 100,000 had continued to fall despite the uptick from 2005 to about 2008.

In 2005 the total murder rate per 100,000 was 4.9, in 2013 it was 5.0. We're back where we started, despite a massive increase in the number of firearms in private hands in the same time period. 2007 had the highest post-SYG rate at 6.4, which was lower than every single year prior to 1998. Why is that? Why was the murder rate 15.1 in both 1973 and 1981? Why is the current murder rate, in our purportedly gun-soaked, OK Corral shoot-em-up society, less than half what it was in the 70s, prior to both SYG and concealed carry? Concealed carry wasn't broadly allowed until 1987. Florida has the highest number of concealed carry permits in the country, estimated at 1.2 million now, yet the violent crime and murder rates continue to fall.

Do you not think it likely, given the statistics, that there is a lot more in play here than SYG, concealed carry or the number of guns in circulation?

http://www.fdle.state.fl.us/Content/get ... earms.aspx

[Hermit]

I didn't pick the data points, you did. Your graph showed the years from 1990 to 2013.

You did more than use the graph I initially provided. The graph does not provide any of the numbers you used in your post. Since you have pointed out by way of data points you obviously looked up and added yourself, I do appreciate the fact that that graph totally neglected the pro rata aspect. In that respect it is dishonest too, but it just turns out to be the same graph used by someone who tried to make it look like murder was actually decreasing as a result of the stand your ground legislation by inverting the y-axis.

I gave you the sources for my figures. Have at them, and try to be more honest than you have so far with the way you pick your data.

[JimC]

I think any reasonable person would conclude that the rate of death by guns went up when the law was introduced. One can be be critical, neutral or (as Seth seems to be) pleased that more of those dang varmints got plumb filled with lead...

[Hermit]

Another school shooting. This time in Troutdale, Oregon. That's #74 since Newtown, Connecticut, 18 months ago.

USA: Guns everywhere, and only loosely controlled, if at all. 74 school shootings.
Australia: Guns rare and tightly controlled. 0 shootings.

What can we conclude from this? Oh, yes. The answer is so obvious. Why did I not see this before? We need guns everywhere.

[laklak]

I didn't pick the data points, you did. Your graph showed the years from 1990 to 2013.

You did more than use the graph I initially provided. The graph does not provide any of the numbers you used in your post. Since you have pointed out by way of data points you obviously looked up and added yourself, I do appreciate the fact that that graph totally neglected the pro rata aspect. In that respect it is dishonest too, but it just turns out to be the same graph used by someone who tried to make it look like murder was actually decreasing as a result of the stand your ground legislation by inverting the y-axis.

I gave you the sources for my figures. Have at them, and try to be more honest than you have so far with the way you pick your data.

Whatever. I used the numbers you posted - 873 and 721. I estimated the years, taking 1990 as the first and 2013 as the second, and calculated the rate per 100,000 based on U.S. Census data. There was no attempt at cherry picking because I do not see the necessity to do so, the numbers are what the numbers are. What they show (IMO) is there is little correlation between levels of gun ownership and crime rates, either negative or positive, and that other factors are far more important. It is certainly possible to disagree with my conclusions, however I do not and will not use dishonest tactics to make my point.

[Gallstones]

Another school shooting. This time in Troutdale, Oregon. That's #74 since Newtown, Connecticut, 18 months ago.

USA: Guns everywhere, and only loosely controlled, if at all. 74 school shootings.
Australia: Guns rare and tightly controlled. 0 shootings.

What can we conclude from this? Oh, yes. The answer is so obvious. Why did I not see this before? We need guns everywhere.

CNN Calls Out Bloomberg’s “Everytown” Group For Questionable Statistics on School Shooting Map

You know you’ve messed up when even CNN is calling your statistics out as suspect.
...
Of those 15 instances only ONE would be classified as a mass shooting with 4 or more victims. In some of the instances listed by Everytown, school wasn’t even in session.

A closer look: How many school shootings since Newtown?

on Wednesday, CNN took a closer look at the list, delving into the circumstances of each incident Everytown included.
...
Everytown says on its web site that it gleans its information from media reports and that its list includes school shootings involving a firearm discharged inside or on school grounds, including assaults, homicides, suicides and accidental shootings.

CNN determined that 15 of the incidents Everytown included were situations similar to the violence in Oregon -- a minor or adult actively shooting inside or near a school. That works out to about one shooting every five weeks.

Some of the other incidents on Everytown's list included personal arguments, accidents and alleged gang activities and drug deals.

Even CNN Can Only Find 15 “Valid” School Shootings in Bloomberg’s Bogus List of 74

CNN lists these events and even a cursory glance reveals that they’ve been generous in their own assessment. There are multiple instances in their pared-down compilation where the school was not the target, and was only tangentially involved.
...
The Mainstream Media Isn’t Buying It

If this were 2012, CNN and the rest of the MSM would have been uncritically boosting Everytown and their dubious map of school shootings. This time around, though, only the most rabidly anti-gun and partisan media outlets ran with the story before checking the facts. Mother Jones, Huffington Post and a few others regurgitated the list as if it were gospel, but it didn’t make as big a splash as expected. Sure there was the usual “viral” spread through the already anti-gun minority. But by the time it got to CNN, the story was no longer about the list — it was about how it had been debunked with a resultant scramble to save what little credibility remained.

Stories like these don’t help the gun control extremists’ cause. This takedown by isn’t exactly an open endorsement of the NRA, but when even CNN can’t back up your claims, you know you’re in trouble.

[Hermit]

Yes, there were many and varied reasons for shootings at schools. Some were justifiable, not many were classifiable as mass killings, some did not even entail injury to anybody, some were among hoodies and so on. Just the same there were 74 of them since the Newtown, Connecticut, 18 months ago. Meanwhile there were 0 in Australia. Might that possibly have anything at all to do with the differences in the availability of firearms?

[Gallstones]

Yes, there were many and varied reasons for shootings at schools. Some were justifiable, not many were classifiable as mass killings, some did not even entail injury to anybody, some were among hoodies and so on. Just the same there were 74 of them since the Newtown, Connecticut, 18 months ago. Meanwhile there were 0 in Australia. Might that possibly have anything at all to do with the differences in the availability of firearms?

I don't care about YOUR availability, I care about mine.
BTW: Gun and ammunition shortage hits farmers, security contractors and sporting shooters after US rush

A shortage of guns and ammunition in the US has spread to Australian shores, causing problems for farmers, security contractors and sporting shooters across the country.

Somebody there cares.

If you have no plans to live in the US then enjoy your gun control in Australia. The only thing you have for us is an opinion and you know how valuable those tend to be.

CNN Slashes School Shooting Stats by 80%