Meanwhile, back in Kiev....

[pErvinalia]

Let's be honest. Putin has acted very smartly in this. Russia is reasserting it's authority in it's part of the world, and it knows the west is reasonably toothless as long as Russia doesn't go too far. Not much to see here, if you ask me. I doubt Putin is thinking of doing anything that would really threaten the West. He's just reasserting Russia's reputation as a serious player.

[Svartalf]

Putin is damn lucky we have reduced our armies to nothing or nearly so, or he'd be looking at the start of WWIII

[pErvinalia]

What I want to know is what China would do if Nato and Russia got in a biff. Would China help Russia? Do they have any sort of defence pact?

[Svartalf]

NATO won't do a thing, the Merkins don't want WWIII

[pErvinalia]

Yeah, but hypothetically, what does China do if Russia comes under attack. And vice versa? Are they allied militarily?

[Hermit]

Yeah, but hypothetically, what does China do if Russia comes under attack. And vice versa? Are they allied militarily?

It all depends on what they perceive to be of most advantage to them. Realpolitik. The USA is too big a market for China to risk losing. On the other hand China will not want the US to become more powerful than it still is. Of course it doesn't want Russia's power to grow either. If the US and Russia come to blows it may weaken both of them. As the "innocent bystander" China can only gain from any such conflict, provided neither of the fighters succeed in utterly destroying the other.

So, my guess is that China will do its best to look neutral and hope nothing happens that would compel it to actually do anything. Naturally both the USA and Russia would naturally try to force it to take sides and participate in the fighting.

That said, I don't think there's much chance at all for a hot war over Crimea. There are many more salami slices to be shaven before that sort of thing becomes a realistic possibility. Nothing will happen if Russia re-absorbs the rest of Ukraine. Or Georgia. Or any other nation that used to be part of the USSR. Serious tripping points would be if it then liberates Poland, maybe Latvia, Lithuania or Estonia. If it has another go at taking Finland I don't think NATO will possibly be able to keep sitting on its hands. One salami slice too many.

[mistermack]

Yeah, but hypothetically, what does China do if Russia comes under attack. And vice versa? Are they allied militarily?

I doubt if they are. But they might one day go down that route, if the west keeps up it's policy of enlarging NATO.
Nato has this agreement that if you attack one, you attack them all.
If Russia and China made a similar agreement, it would be very bad news for the world, and would automatically bring nuclear war much closer.

If you bring highly unpredictable countries into NATO, the chances of a nuclear conflict jump by hundreds percent.

[SnowLeopard]

Everyone just needs to chill oot. Let Russia have crimea and caaaalm the fuck down

[mistermack]

I'm quite surprised Putin hasn't split Ukraine.

He's been very restrained, in my opinion. Mind you, it might not be all over yet.

[klr]

Yeah, but hypothetically, what does China do if Russia comes under attack. And vice versa? Are they allied militarily?

It all depends on what they perceive to be of most advantage to them. Realpolitik. The USA is too big a market for China to risk losing. On the other hand China will not want the US to become more powerful than it still is. Of course it doesn't want Russia's power to grow either. If the US and Russia come to blows it may weaken both of them. As the "innocent bystander" China can only gain from any such conflict, provided neither of the fighters succeed in utterly destroying the other.

So, my guess is that China will do its best to look neutral and hope nothing happens that would compel it to actually do anything. Naturally both the USA and Russia would naturally try to force it to take sides and participate in the fighting.

That said, I don't think there's much chance at all for a hot war over Crimea. There are many more salami slices to be shaven before that sort of thing becomes a realistic possibility. Nothing will happen if Russia re-absorbs the rest of Ukraine. Or Georgia. Or any other nation that used to be part of the USSR. Serious tripping points would be if it then liberates Poland, maybe Latvia, Lithuania or Estonia. If it has another go at taking Finland I don't think NATO will possibly be able to keep sitting on its hands. One salami slice too many.

Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are all in NATO.

[JimC]

Yeah, but hypothetically, what does China do if Russia comes under attack. And vice versa? Are they allied militarily?

It all depends on what they perceive to be of most advantage to them. Realpolitik. The USA is too big a market for China to risk losing. On the other hand China will not want the US to become more powerful than it still is. Of course it doesn't want Russia's power to grow either. If the US and Russia come to blows it may weaken both of them. As the "innocent bystander" China can only gain from any such conflict, provided neither of the fighters succeed in utterly destroying the other.

So, my guess is that China will do its best to look neutral and hope nothing happens that would compel it to actually do anything. Naturally both the USA and Russia would naturally try to force it to take sides and participate in the fighting.

That said, I don't think there's much chance at all for a hot war over Crimea. There are many more salami slices to be shaven before that sort of thing becomes a realistic possibility. Nothing will happen if Russia re-absorbs the rest of Ukraine. Or Georgia. Or any other nation that used to be part of the USSR. Serious tripping points would be if it then liberates Poland, maybe Latvia, Lithuania or Estonia. If it has another go at taking Finland I don't think NATO will possibly be able to keep sitting on its hands. One salami slice too many.

Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are all in NATO.

Yes. A little more than a "serious tripping point"unless NATO wishes to suicide...

But ex-Soviet block countries, non-NATO members are potential targets to be his "last territorial demand in Europe"

[klr]

Yeah, but hypothetically, what does China do if Russia comes under attack. And vice versa? Are they allied militarily?

It all depends on what they perceive to be of most advantage to them. Realpolitik. The USA is too big a market for China to risk losing. On the other hand China will not want the US to become more powerful than it still is. Of course it doesn't want Russia's power to grow either. If the US and Russia come to blows it may weaken both of them. As the "innocent bystander" China can only gain from any such conflict, provided neither of the fighters succeed in utterly destroying the other.

So, my guess is that China will do its best to look neutral and hope nothing happens that would compel it to actually do anything. Naturally both the USA and Russia would naturally try to force it to take sides and participate in the fighting.

That said, I don't think there's much chance at all for a hot war over Crimea. There are many more salami slices to be shaven before that sort of thing becomes a realistic possibility. Nothing will happen if Russia re-absorbs the rest of Ukraine. Or Georgia. Or any other nation that used to be part of the USSR. Serious tripping points would be if it then liberates Poland, maybe Latvia, Lithuania or Estonia. If it has another go at taking Finland I don't think NATO will possibly be able to keep sitting on its hands. One salami slice too many.

Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are all in NATO.

Yes. A little more than a "serious tripping point"unless NATO wishes to suicide...

But ex-Soviet block countries, non-NATO members are potential targets to be his "last territorial demand in Europe"

NATO member states are legally obliged to support any one of them that is attacked. Article 5.

http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/North_Atl ... #Article_5

[Seth]

NATO member states are legally obliged to support any one of them that is attacked. Article 5.

Which just goes to show you how impotent NATO actually is, as if we didn't know that already. It's always been up to the US to pull NATOs fat out of the fire since it was invented.

What might bring Putin down is worldwide economic sanctions and blockades of Russian commerce. The kleptocrats who keep Putin in power will be (and are already) mighty pissed that they are losing money every time Putin pisses someone else off with his megalomaniacal pretensions for a new Russian Empire.

It's called "Mutually Assured Economic Destruction." The Soviets tried to go it alone and Ronald Reagan outspent and outsmarted them into national bankruptcy. I don't hold out any hope that Obama can do anything at all except suck Putin's prick, but maybe Congress can get its shit together when we throw out the Progressives in the mid-terms.

The wild card is natural gas. If Obama can be persuaded to ship natural gas to Europe to replace Russia's supplies, Putin's done.

[Jason]

Russian empire? You are truly deranged Seth. One minute you're targeting black helicopters and the next you're drinking from the party bowl.

[JimC]

Russian empire? You are truly deranged Seth. One minute you're targeting black helicopters and the next you're drinking from the party bowl.

Well, funnily enough I think Putin is firmly wedded to re-establishing Russia as a super-power, at least, and he's not very fussy about who he treads on to achieve this. Not that far from wishing for a "Russian Empire"...

But the natural gas thing Seth mentioned is wishful thinking that ignores economic reality. Russian gas will always be cheaper than anything that needs to be transported by ship; Russia has got Europe hooked on gas, which gives it powerful leverage. Enough so that old Soviet block countries are at risk, but not enough so that NATO members are in danger of actual invasion, IMO..