The Future IS Exponential?

[cronus]

Maybe it isn't a crash but a explosion impending? All the dials slide away...unlike other species we are of Earth. And that may be harbinger of astronomic growth beyond anything Earth is able to cope or as experienced?

[Ian]

[Ian]

[cronus]

Same graph could be graphed for the ancient Romans and their ancient steam engine. Doesn't mean a thing if it ain't got that zing.

[Ian]

It's got zing to spare. Wanna start a thread about the solar power industry?

[cronus]

It's got zing to spare. Wanna start a thread about the solar power industry?

Go on show me what you got? Maybe you like yourself a lot?

[Ian]

Like myself a lot? I wank occasionally, yes.

[Cormac]

Like myself a lot? I wank occasionally, yes.

[MrJonno]

Medicine isn't,

There haven't been any big advanced since 70's, sure lots of small incremental advances which I'm glad we have but nothing revolutionary. We may get computers that can simulate the 'Matrix' but I bet we will get there a lot time before we understand the brain will enough to actually plug it in

[Blind groper]

Actually there have been major breakthroughs in medicine. Two that come to mind immediately are stem cells and sRNA, but there are other areas also.

The thing about exponential growth is that the early stages of such growth do not seem to be doing much. But then suddenly there is an explosion of data and capability. Both stem cell therapies, and the use of sRNA treatments are still being developed. In due course - bang!

On the other hand, cancer deaths have dropped dramatically. At one time a diagnosis of cancer was a death knell. Today, it is merely a call for urgent medical treatment. Many cancers are totally curable, and many others have substantially increased survival. It has come a long, long way, and a lot of that progress is over the last couple decades.

[cronus]

Actually there have been major breakthroughs in medicine. Two that come to mind immediately are stem cells and sRNA, but there are other areas also.

The thing about exponential growth is that the early stages of such growth do not seem to be doing much. But then suddenly there is an explosion of data and capability. Both stem cell therapies, and the use of sRNA treatments are still being developed. In due course - bang!

On the other hand, cancer deaths have dropped dramatically. At one time a diagnosis of cancer was a death knell. Today, it is merely a call for urgent medical treatment. Many cancers are totally curable, and many others have substantially increased survival. It has come a long, long way, and a lot of that progress is over the last couple decades.

Medicine seems more than exponential with the monies...but who want's to live forever in debt?

[pErvinalia]

The problem with the "computing is exponential" thing is that we are starting to run up against physical limits for the current computer model. You can only make transistors so small, and you can only make cpu's so energy efficient. The real acceleration will come when quantum computing is sorted out. The physical limits are much less apparent if one can overcome the initial physical limit of designing computing and information processing on a quantum scale.

[cronus]

Multiple black swans are needed.

[pErvinalia]

Huh?

[rainbow]

Due to projections on the Exponential growth rate of HIV infection, and the death rate due to AIDS based on figures from the 90s, the world now has a negative population.