An independent Scotland?

[mistermack]

It's very very likely things will happen smoothly. That's all an honest person could say.

Grand, some optimism! I agree. Can you be as confident about UK in EU as you are about Scotland?

Of course, far more confident.
Because if there was a problem with either or both being a full member, separation would not take place till it's sorted.
I think even you have now accepted that. Finally. Which I tried to point out ages ago.

So the UK is effectively in till it wants out, which would of course be a totally different story.

As far as certainty goes, Scotland being accepted is far less certain than the sky not falling in.
You're as bad as Salmond.
If I was the French or Spanish government, I would already have reservations about establishing such a precedent. In fact, if I was on the commission, I would have grave reservations.

You might end up with the entire EU being chopped up into places the size of Cornwall or Wales.
Although, some in the EU might like that. With national governments being so puny, they would have to rely more and more on the European Parliament and Commission for any centralised action.

But anyway, it only takes one country to put it's foot down, in order to not establish the precedent of breakaways being easy, and Scotland separation is blocked.

In my book, while not looking likely right now, it's far more likely than the sky falling in.

[Santa_Claus]

I certainly agree that other EU countries would be worried about setting a precendent for or giving encouragement to own seperatist issues.

But Germany ain't one of them. and IMO only Spain is big enough to potentially cause a problem (any others just do WTF they are told by Germany)......and Spain is too broke to hold a firm line. Besides the easy argument for saying Scotland is different (to, say, Catalonia) is that it is already a Country - just not independent of the UK / England. Still a country within the EU.......the only thing being argued about is Scotlands relationship with England (and the practicalities to be sorted out).

Oh look - the sky IS falling in.......

[ronmcd]

It's very very likely things will happen smoothly. That's all an honest person could say.

Grand, some optimism! I agree. Can you be as confident about UK in EU as you are about Scotland?

Of course, far more confident.
Because if there was a problem with either or both being a full member, separation would not take place till it's sorted.

Sorry, I should have been clearer: can you be as confident about UK's continuing membership of EU under the ConDem coalition or Labour opposition in the future, who appear to want to take UK out.

[ronmcd]

In my book, while not looking likely right now, it's far more likely than the sky falling in.

* sigh *

[Svartalf]

It's very very likely things will happen smoothly. That's all an honest person could say.

Grand, some optimism! I agree. Can you be as confident about UK in EU as you are about Scotland?

Of course, far more confident.
Because if there was a problem with either or both being a full member, separation would not take place till it's sorted.

Sorry, I should have been clearer: can you be as confident about UK's continuing membership of EU under the ConDem coalition or Labour opposition in the future, who appear to want to take UK out.

I suspect the hassle of getting out (and losing both member and privileged trade partner benefits) would be too much... not sure just how you can even get out of the sticky web of treaties... remember the late 70s when the GBP was in the shits? If the UK gets out, those will look like halcyon days of a strong sterling.

[ronmcd]

It's very very likely things will happen smoothly. That's all an honest person could say.

Grand, some optimism! I agree. Can you be as confident about UK in EU as you are about Scotland?

Of course, far more confident.
Because if there was a problem with either or both being a full member, separation would not take place till it's sorted.

Sorry, I should have been clearer: can you be as confident about UK's continuing membership of EU under the ConDem coalition or Labour opposition in the future, who appear to want to take UK out.

I suspect the hassle of getting out (and losing both member and privileged trade partner benefits) would be too much... not sure just how you can even get out of the sticky web of treaties... remember the late 70s when the GBP was in the shits? If the UK gets out, those will look like halcyon days of a strong sterling.

I think Greenland is a precedent, it required a treaty and significant negotiations to GET out. Ironic. But the eurosceptic element in UK politics are quite prepared for the hassle of leaving it seems.

[Santa_Claus]

But the eurosceptic element in UK politics are quite prepared for the hassle of leaving it seems.

The Eurosceptic little Englanders (living in a past that never existed ) are insane enough to lead the UK into economic suicide. Scotland would be wise to seperate before that happens (I doubt if it will happen - but more likely than the Sky falling in .....or Scotland being excluded from the EU).

[mistermack]

But the eurosceptic element in UK politics are quite prepared for the hassle of leaving it seems.

The Eurosceptic little Englanders (living in a past that never existed ) are insane enough to lead the UK into economic suicide. Scotland would be wise to seperate before that happens (I doubt if it will happen - but more likely than the Sky falling in .....or Scotland being excluded from the EU).

Not true. I totally disagree with the red bit.
No UK government would take us out without a referendum, and they wouldn't win one.
You might get a Tory govt. want to take us out ( unlikely but possible ) but then you have to convert the public.
But Scotland could be refused membership by just one dissenting country.

[Red Celt]

But Scotland could be refused membership by just one dissenting country.

Still banging that drum?

[Svartalf]

Unless measures are taken to ensure unanimous assent, I'm sorry to have to say that mackie has the right of it

[ronmcd]

I think it's worth making this point over the unlikely event of no EU membership - so what?

This is all about fearmongering, in an attempt to scare people. But even though Scotland would likely vote for EU membership if there were a referendum on it, there are perfectly good arguments against it. Some in SNP and some independence supporters would actually like a vote on it. And other countries, including UK in the future, aren't part of EU, and get on prefectly well. So it's not something that would preent independence, is it?

The point is that the YES campaign are just trying to keep as much as possible consistent through the independence process, memberships of EU, NATO, cooperation with other countries etc. Decisions could then be made depending on the manifestos of the parties vying for power after independence, as in UK at every election.

And lets be honest for a second: if the Scottish govt wants in to EU, it will get in. Anything else is laughable, because we are all EU citizens now. It's all pre-referendum politics, after the vote it will seem like the pathetic scaremongering it really is.

[ronmcd]

Unless measures are taken to ensure unanimous assent, I'm sorry to have to say that mackie has the right of it

And no such measures could be undertaken until there is a vote. Before that all that people could do is get legal advice in UK and Scotland, which is just advice, or comment from the EU itself. Which again would just be comment, not a guarantee.

And on the idea of getting comment from the EU, they have confirmed that Scotland can't even ASK for that advice, because they will only respond to a current member state. Ie the UK. And the UK ... have no plans to ask.

LOL

In summary: nobody will say yes/no before independence, no matter the legal opinions of experts on either side. Scotland, in reality, will decide. If we vote for independence, we will get into EU if we want. Anything else is just havers.

[mistermack]

So pointing out potential problems is scaremongering, and everything is SURE to turn out right in the end.

Yeah, right. It always does.

Like before the 2nd world war, people said the same thing. Or when Greece joined the Euro.
But, just like in history, things do go wrong, they will go wrong, and it's usually best not to trust to luck.

[Santa_Claus]

Unless measures are taken to ensure unanimous assent, I'm sorry to have to say that mackie has the right of it

The only reason another country would try and bar Scotland from the EU (if indeed it actually needs to enter - per the Greenland experiance would seem to require consent to leave!) is as a bargaining chip on other matters.

But back in the real world that will simply not happen - other countries too much to lose by pissing off the Germans (who hold the purse strings) plus won't want to piss of a Country that will one day be in the EU and therefore be able to payback......

The discussions on Scotlands EU position will be entirely about the practical side to ensure that the basis on which Scotland is in the EU is clear to everyone (could well be that will be different from the UK - with Scotland wanting less optouts).....likely that will involve a treaty (signed by everyone) at the end of it, but that simply icing on the cake.

[Santa_Claus]

So pointing out potential problems is scaremongering, and everything is SURE to turn out right in the end.

Yeah, right. It always does.

Like before the 2nd world war, people said the same thing. Or when Greece joined the Euro.
But, just like in history, things do go wrong, they will go wrong, and it's usually best not to trust to luck.

Even if that was true - I don't see how Scotland being led by London is the magic answer to the future ........if it was their would be a Q of countries begging to be led by London..........except for the last 50 years or so it seems to have been going the other way.

I wonder where the Border will be? I favour somewhere near Watford .