The decline of America..

[Audley Strange]

Right now the US is a demonstration of a plutocracy. If "millionaire" was a political party, they would easily control the House, the Senate, the White House, and the Supreme Court. We are the most uber-capitalistic country that's ever existed, and we are governed as such.

I agree. However I separate plutocracy from capitalism. Though in saying that, it does seem to me that the current situation is akin to the Politburo's form of democracy. Instead of "pick the communist" however it's "pick the capitalist". Not a free market at all.

[Pappa]

The most disconcerting to me is the loss of the US's industrial base, and I find that to be among the most dangerous aspects. This is not an Obama thing, as our industrial base has been declining since the 1970s. We really can't afford to lose that.

It's an inevitable result of globablisation. Why make cars in the US when you can get them made for half the price in Mexico? Why produce clothing in the US when you can get them constructed in an EPZ for a tenth of the cost? Manufacturing goes to the lowest bidder.

[Pappa]

So how will it play out do people think?

Something between The Road Warrior and the Fallout game series. Begin hoarding ammo - you'll need it to fend off the hoards of zombies, mutants and post-apocalyptic retro-punk gangs.

That sounds fun.

[Coito ergo sum]

The most disconcerting to me is the loss of the US's industrial base, and I find that to be among the most dangerous aspects. This is not an Obama thing, as our industrial base has been declining since the 1970s. We really can't afford to lose that.

It's an inevitable result of globablisation. Why make cars in the US when you can get them made for half the price in Mexico? Why produce clothing in the US when you can get them constructed in an EPZ for a tenth of the cost? Manufacturing goes to the lowest bidder.

That isn't necessarily true. Many auto plants have been constructed in the US over the last 20 years. There are many hurdles a company must face in opening a plant in a third world country. One factor in manufacturing is labor cost, but that isn't the only factor.

Now, your point, of course is nevertheless relevant because companies do, indeed, move whatever they can to the cheapest environment possible. And, I don't deny this reality. However, the danger is that the US needs to have a private enterprise that can function and support a military or other countries will twist our nuts for concessions and such. An industrial base that can be put on a war footing is something we really need to preserve. And, once you forget how to build stuff, it is difficult or practically impossible to re-learn it.

[Animavore]

America has been in decline since the Lincoln era. We can put it to music like this.

[Ian]

America is not in decline.

[Gerald McGrew]

I agree. However I separate plutocracy from capitalism. Though in saying that, it does seem to me that the current situation is akin to the Politburo's form of democracy. Instead of "pick the communist" however it's "pick the capitalist". Not a free market at all.

Capitalism doesn't necessarily result in plutocracy. It just did in the US. And yeah....not much chance of a non-millionaire making a serious bid for the white house, is there? I saw a report earlier this year that estimated that to make a genuine run for a House or Senate seat, you need at least 1.5 million. Now, it's true that you or I could do that by raising funds from supporters, but that kind of cash requires at least a few wealthy donors. So if you got in, who do you think you would be most beholden to?

[Gerald McGrew]

One thing that seldom gets factored into discussions about moving jobs overseas, is that one of the main factors for this trend is how more goods are being sold in those countries. It doesn't always make sense to manufacture something in China if the supplies come from the US and you end up shipping all of the finished items back to the US for sale.

However, if a significant portion of your sales is in China and the far east and you can get the same supplies from that region, it makes total sense to move manufacturing over there, given the cheaper labor costs.

Once China opened up its markets and people started having expendable incomes, the market opportunities exploded. So businesses saw cheap labor + large untapped market + available resources and made the obvious decision to move production. That's why in most cases, those manufacturing jobs the US lost are never coming back. They're gone for good.

[Audley Strange]

@ Gerald

Re your previous. That's exactly it. The best government money can buy, making the Government itself little more than a vicious P.R. department for vested interests. It's the same here in the U.K. but just not as balls out overt. The problem is the left is a fucking joke and has been for decades meaning the only option people are going to take is towards the extreme right.

[Gerald McGrew]

Audley,

Yup. The fact that people here think Obama is some sort of communist leftist is a good indication of just how bad it's gotten.

[Pappa]

That isn't necessarily true. Many auto plants have been constructed in the US over the last 20 years. There are many hurdles a company must face in opening a plant in a third world country. One factor in manufacturing is labor cost, but that isn't the only factor.

Most companies don't bother with the difficulties of building manufacturing plants any more. They just farm out the contracts to third parties (usually in EPZs). That way they don't have the expense of upkeep and modifications to buildings and machinery. They also don't have to have a continuous standing workforce (with unions and benefits).

[Cormac]

America won the arms race, only to discover that they were racing a cripple who lied about his legs, and that there was no prize anyway.

You have India and China and Brazil on the up, that has to mean that the US goes down.
The US has always used it's might as the biggest market, but soon it won't be.

Economically, it's fucked because it's living beyond it's means, and it can't agree on who should pay.
So it is in decline, but not free-fall. It's really more a question of others on the up.

I'm not optimistic for the US or the UK, or the EU, because we still haven't learned how to run an economy.
The politicians run it with the next election in mind, not the next recession.
And we voters haven't learned to see through it, and punish them.

China recently discovered that owning the debt of a giant economy doesn't actually give you an upper hand at all. At best, it gives you am equal position in negotiation.

[Rum]

My reading is two key issues: The gradual decline of industry. No major military power (if indeed a reduction in that area is part of the decline) can develop without that industrial base.

Secondly: forward planning. The President spends half his time electioneering - it is unavoidable given the system, the mid terms and all that. China, for example, has a two hundred strong politburo which makes plans looking twenty years ahead.

Plus of course companies like GE, Google and other no longer pay taxes. The gummint is broke!

[Audley Strange]

There is another massively looming horror for cyan collar industries. That of new models of distribution. When you have things like Amazon, Steam, Itunes and various holiday sites and clothing sites, the high street is no longer going to be cost effective, meaning reduction in staff, rates, taxes and cheaper and cheaper offers online. This has already been seen to an extent in the news media foolishly trying to recoup cash after almost a decade of giving their product away free online and wondering why physical purchasable news was in decline as well as the vanishing of things like music stores or movie rentals stores on the high street.

[amused]

There is another massively looming horror for cyan collar industries. That of new models of distribution. When you have things like Amazon, Steam, Itunes and various holiday sites and clothing sites, the high street is no longer going to be cost effective, meaning reduction in staff, rates, taxes and cheaper and cheaper offers online. This has already been seen to an extent in the news media foolishly trying to recoup cash after almost a decade of giving their product away free online and wondering why physical purchasable news was in decline as well as the vanishing of things like music stores or movie rentals stores on the high street.

I don't understand why stores like Best Buy don't shrink themselves into a 'display model only' space. They should have only one of any given item that you can go in and try out. If you like it, you can order it there online and have it delivered to you or to the store for pickup. It's insane for any store to keep technology-dependent inventory that becomes obsolete as soon as it is shipped. That same display model approach could work for many goods, IMO.