Predictions: Who will be the GOP Candidate?

[Svartalf]

Bachman officially is, our news didn't mention Perry bowing out yet.

[Coito ergo sum]

I think Perry is in.

[drl2]

TIME is reporting that turnout in Iowa was about the same as in (pre-tea-party) 2008. That's in spite of an estimated $12.9 million in ad spending by SuperPACs, in addition to what the candidates themselves spent. This, plus the lack of a clear winner, suggests to me that the conservative side might be just as disillusioned with its candidates as many on the left are with Obama.

The Republican turnout was a record high. The Democrat turnout is much lower but that's because that side was uncontested. Maybe Time is just doing its normal terrible job of reporting?

The NYT's archive puts the repub voter turnout at the 2008 caucus at 118696. I'm sure you have a low opinion of the librul commie NYT, so let's assume their numbers were on the low side to make Obama look better by contrast.

FOX News, bastion of fairness and champion of all that is good and decent in the world, put the 2012 count at 121972.

That's an increase of 3276 votes, or about 2.7%. Maybe that's technically a record high, but if a difference that could be covered by population and demographics change is all the angry teabagger electorate can muster with all their sound and fury in a state of over 3 million, then they're doing something wrong. (Hint: They speak their ideas where people can hear them.)

[Warren Dew]

That's an increase of 3276 votes, or about 2.7%. Maybe that's technically a record high, but if a difference that could be covered by population and demographics change is all the angry teabagger electorate can muster with all their sound and fury in a state of over 3 million, then they're doing something wrong. (Hint: They speak their ideas where people can hear them.)

The Tea Party isn't trying to help the traditional Republican party. They are trying to use the Republican party as a vehicle to implement the Tea Party's own, essentially libertarian views, which are contrary to the big government Republican views that crystallized during the Bush administration.

Ron Paul's showing indicates that they are having some success at that.

[Tyrannical]

Political parties change, and the tea party is trying to change the republican party. Obviously the Democrats can change since they are no longer the Jim Crow party.

[drl2]

Why Mitt won: http://www.jest.com/e/138285

[Coito ergo sum]

...because being liked by white people is less important than being liked by non-white people...

[drl2]

Because non-white people make up a good percentage of the population, and in several states they're still allowed to vote.

[Coito ergo sum]

Because non-white people make up a good percentage of the population, and in several states they're still allowed to vote.

Of course, and they vote in Iowa too. Iowa, like Washington DC, has the demographics it has. We don't invalidate the votes of DC residents because it is disproportionately black, do we? We don't sarcastically say "Congratulations - you got 8 more black votes...," well at least not if we want to avoid saying racist things.

[Coito ergo sum]

Boston Globe Endorses Huntsman!

And yet the chance for renewal remains. Sour economic data and dysfunction in Washington present major obstacles to Obama’s reelection. Whoever gets the Republican nomination could easily become president. Among the candidates, only two stand out as truly presidential, Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman. Both have track records of success, and both, through their policies and demeanors, have shown the breadth of spirit to lead the nation. But while Romney proceeds cautiously, strategically, trying to appease enough constituencies to get himself the nomination, Huntsman has been bold. Rather than merely sketch out policies, he articulates goals and ideals. The priorities he would set for the country, from leading the world in renewable energy to retooling education and immigration policies to help American high-tech industries, are far-sighted. He has stood up far more forcefully than Romney against those in his party who reject evolution and the science behind global warming.

With a strong record as governor of Utah and US ambassador to China, arguably the most important overseas diplomatic post, Huntsman’s credentials match those of anyone in the field. He would be the best candidate to seize this moment in GOP history, and the best-prepared to be president.

http://articles.boston.com/2012-01-06/e ... are-reform

[Warren Dew]

Boston Globe Endorses Huntsman!

Providing yet more evidence that he'd be the perfect Democrat.

Republican primary endorsements from sources that are certain to endorse Obama in the fall should really be ignored.

[drl2]

Because non-white people make up a good percentage of the population, and in several states they're still allowed to vote.

Of course, and they vote in Iowa too. Iowa, like Washington DC, has the demographics it has. We don't invalidate the votes of DC residents because it is disproportionately black, do we? We don't sarcastically say "Congratulations - you got 8 more black votes...," well at least not if we want to avoid saying racist things.

Why not? It's a statement about a candidate's inability to appeal to a wide demographic and an acknowledgement that different cultural groups within our society tend to have different priorities. A candidate who can't speak to the commonalities between different groups is likely running on a very narrow platform, possibly at the expense of coherent thought on broader issues.

[Coito ergo sum]

Boston Globe Endorses Huntsman!

Providing yet more evidence that he'd be the perfect Democrat.

Republican primary endorsements from sources that are certain to endorse Obama in the fall should really be ignored.

I don't think he shares many of the views of Democrats. To me, he is the most accomplished candidate in the mix:

Ambassador to China
Ambassador to Singapore
Wildly popular Governor of Utah
Successful businessman

This guy is a capable, competent leader in both politics and business.

And, he is a voice of reason shining out of a party that has become too much focused on people like Perry, Palin, Bachmann, O'Donnell, and Santorum.

The guy has very moderate and ecumenical religious beliefs, and is far less religious than even Obama. He is pro-science, and pro-business and industry.

How could Obama cut him down in the general election, incidentally, since Obama appointed him to the post of Ambassador to China. What is he going to say? This guy is a whackjob! That's why I thought he was qualified to represent the US as Ambassador to one of the most important countries in the world.

[Coito ergo sum]

Because non-white people make up a good percentage of the population, and in several states they're still allowed to vote.

Of course, and they vote in Iowa too. Iowa, like Washington DC, has the demographics it has. We don't invalidate the votes of DC residents because it is disproportionately black, do we? We don't sarcastically say "Congratulations - you got 8 more black votes...," well at least not if we want to avoid saying racist things.

Why not? It's a statement about a candidate's inability to appeal to a wide demographic and an acknowledgement that different cultural groups within our society tend to have different priorities. A candidate who can't speak to the commonalities between different groups is likely running on a very narrow platform, possibly at the expense of coherent thought on broader issues.

To say that it is about an "inability" is patently false. They can't control Iowa's demographics. It's a mere statement of the race of most Iowans, and a denigration of the fact that most of them are white. Circulate the same thing by replacing Iowa with Detroit or DC, and the race to black, and what do you think the reaction would be?

All the political candidates have to go through Iowa primaries. When the democrats have a broad field, they do the same thing. Wouldn't the same cartoon apply to them? So, when Obama won Iowa, did the same crack apply? If it didn't, why not?

Rewind to 2008:



Congratulations, Barack Obama, on being liked by more white folks than John Edwards and Joe Biden....

[Santa_Claus]

I think the Mormon will become the GOP candidate - as a running mate will probably feel he has to pick a christian......probably outside the other candidates - given what he has said about them all to date.

If he learns the Palin lesson, will pick someone who can at least write own name. and can keep mouth shut.

My take is that (if he runs a decent campaign) will be too close to call - unfortunately as a Hobsons choice between two complete losers, neither of which will be much of a President.