Malaysia jet crashes in east Ukraine conflict zone

[klr]

300+ passengers and crew dead. Unlike MH370, there is little doubt as to what happened to this flight:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28354856

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-28354787

[Svartalf]

Actually, there is doubt: who did send the missile?

[klr]

Actually, there is doubt: who did send the missile?

You mean was it the Pro-Russian rebels, or the Russians themselves?

It sure as hell wasn't the Ukrainians. The rebels don't have any planes to be shot down. All reported aircraft shoot-downs thus far have been of Ukrainian aircraft by rebels. Also, despite repeated Ukrainian claims about Russian incursions into Ukrainian airspace, Ukraine is not going to start targeting Russian aircraft either.

And of course it's extremely unlikely it was the Russians.

[Svartalf]

Who knows what Russians actually want... they might try to pin it on the Ukainians, in spite of all the unlikelihood there.

[JimC]

Not a good year for Malaysian airlines...

[mistermack]

It sure as hell wasn't the Ukrainians.

Sure as hell? Hell's not particularly sure though.

I would say that it's more likely the pro-russian faction did it. If it was a missile.
But the same factors could apply to the Ukrain side. I doubt if they are particularly unified, or disciplined. And there will be people on that side, who would do something like this, just to discredit the other side.

Sure as hell is just about the true odds.
I would BET on it being the pro-russians. But I'd need good odds.

[JimC]

It sure as hell wasn't the Ukrainians.

Sure as hell? Hell's not particularly sure though.

I would say that it's more likely the pro-russian faction did it. If it was a missile.
But the same factors could apply to the Ukrain side. I doubt if they are particularly unified, or disciplined. And there will be people on that side, who would do something like this, just to discredit the other side.

Sure as hell is just about the true odds.
I would BET on it being the pro-russians. But I'd need good odds.

The main argument would be motivation and discipline. The Ukrainian forces are not militias, but regular army troops (however incompetent). They are unlikely to want or need to shoot aircraft out of the sky, unless the Russian armed forces actually invade, and probably are disciplined enough so that a random group will not suddenly start firing AA missiles.

On the other hand, the pro-Russian side are a collection of ill-disciplined militia, with access to modern weapons from Russia. They have already shot down military transports, and have a motivation to be ruthless in the usual terrorist fashion. They do not seem to have much of a central control, so small groups can make crazy decisions.

I think that, if the plane was indeed shot down, it is extremely likely that the militia were responsible.

[mistermack]

Yeh, but, if you can work that out, so can the extremists in the Ukraine.

Ukraine's present government got power by armed insurrection. Just like the pro-russian lot.
When that happens, you always get the loonies rise to the top. The most trigger-happy people who don't give a fuck.
That's who is running Ukraine right now.

If some of them worked out that most people would reason exactly like you did, they might see that as a chance to harm the other side.

[JimC]

Possible, I suppose, but extremely unlikely. The responsibility would eventually emerge, and would undo all their public relations efforts. A small terrorist group could do the deed, and have a fair chance of never being bought to justice.

However, the political ramifications of this are going to be huge; it will be interesting to see it unfold...

[Tero]

Let's see, plane flies over Ukraine for hours, hits Russian border. Who do you think mistook it for a fighter plane?

[klr]

Let's see, plane flies over Ukraine for hours, hits Russian border. Who do you think mistook it for a fighter plane?

Quite. In fact, it was flying from west to east through a designated civilian flight corridor.

Which most airlines have now said - belatedly - that they will divert from, at least at the eastern end.

[Tero]

Why fly over the Ukraine at all?

[Tero]

It is their most Northern route and if you use a globe, it may go over Ukraine. But I would not.

[JimC]

There seems to be pretty strong confirmation that it was a missile from the separatists:

Social media posts by pro-Russian insurgents - most of them hastily removed - suggest the rebels thought they had shot down a Ukrainian army plane before realising in horror that it was in fact a packed Malaysian airliner.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/mh17-disast ... z37mDGCqhV

[Tero]

It'n going to be the same Russian made missile no matter what party had it. I suspect Russia, still.