What should be done about Iran?

[Hermit]

Which in turn reminds me of a joke making the rounds twenty years later: The US government can prove that Iraq has weapons of mass destruction. It has the signed delivery receipts.

Which is it? Did they have them or not? "Bush lied, people died" because Iraq had no WMD - but, the US sold Iraq WMD. Ah, fuck it - doesn't matter - as long as it serves our political purpose, who gives a shit what the truth is.

[Emphasis added to facilitate comprehension]

Read the bit you quoted again, CES. I am being kind and not make any further remarks regarding your question unless you wish to pursue your line of thinking.

You see, though, the problem is that the little "joke" was bandied about as fact. I had arguments about that with folks at RDF, where they were quite serious.

You see, though, that I made it pretty fucking explicit that it was a joke, don't you? Please address your problems to those who don't regard it as such. All I said is that the US administration supported Saddam Hussein with cash and weapons in the early eighties.

But now that you have opened the can, I'll add this: It did so despite being aware that Hussein used chemical weapons against Iran as well as the Kurds on a daily basis at that time. (1) Furthermore, there is evidence that while the administration refused to be an official conduit for supplying chemical weapons to Hussein, it turned a blind eye to US companies selling raw materials commonly used to manufacture them to him. (2)

(1) http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB82/
(2) http://discuss.washingtonpost.com/wp-sr ... 022703.htm

[Feck]

Immediately prior to the US invasion of Iraq, Saddam Hussein delivered a WMD declarations report to the United Nations in an attempt to avert a U.S. invasion. Do you recall that U.S. officials intercepted the report and removed special sections of it, based on claims of “national security”? Well, it turned out that the removed sections involved the delivery of those WMDs by the United States and other Western countries to Saddam Hussein, information that obviously caused U.S. officials a bit of discomfort on the eve of their invasion.
In a February 3, 2003, Sunday Morning Herald article entitled, “Reaping the Grim Harvest We Have Sown,” writer Anne Summers wrote,

What is known is that the 10 non-permanent members had to be content with an edited, scaled-down version. According to the German news agency DPA, instead of the 12,000 pages, these nations — including Germany, which this month became president of the Security Council — were given only 3,000 pages.
So what was missing?

The Guardian reported that the nine-page table of contents included chapters on “procurements” in Iraq’s nuclear program and “relations with companies, representatives and individuals” for its chemical weapons program. This information was not included in the edited version.

[Coito ergo sum]

Obama starts massive US Air-Sea-Marine build-up opposite Iran
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 20, 2010, 2:20 PM (GMT+02:00)
Tags: Aircraft carriers US-Iran

USS Truman carrier
DEBKAfile's military sources report a decision by the Obama administration to boost US military strength in the Mediterranean and Persian Gulf regions in the short term with an extra air and naval strike forces and 6,000 Marine and sea combatants. Carrier Strike Group 10, headed by the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier, sails out of the US Navy base at Norfolk, Virginia Friday, May 21. On arrival, it will raise the number of US carriers off Iranian shores to two. Up until now, President Barack Obama kept just one aircraft carrier stationed off the coast of Iran, the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower in the Arabian Sea, in pursuit of his policy of diplomatic engagement with Tehran.
For the first time, too, the US force opposite Iran will be joined by a German warship, the frigate FGS Hessen, operating under American command.
It is also the first time that Obama, since taking office 14 months ago, is sending military reinforcements to the Persian Gulf. Our military sources have learned that the USS Truman is just the first element of the new buildup of US resources around Iran. It will take place over the next three months, reaching peak level in late July and early August. By then, the Pentagon plans to have at least 4 or 5 US aircraft carriers visible from Iranian shores.
The USS Truman's accompanying Strike Group includes Carrier Air Wing Three (Battle Axe) - which has 7 squadrons - 4 of F/A-18 Super Hornet and F/A-18 Hornet bomber jets, as well as spy planes and early warning E-2 Hawkeyes that can operate in all weather conditions; the Electronic Attack Squadron 130 for disrupting enemy radar systems; and Squadron 7 of helicopters for anti-submarine combat (In its big naval exercise last week, Iran exhibited the Velayat 89 long-range missile for striking US aircraft carriers and Israel warships from Iranian submarines.)
Another four US warships will be making their way to the region to join the USS Truman and its Strike Group. They are the guided-missile cruiser USS Normandy and guided missile destroyers USS Winston S. Churchill, USS Oscar Austin and USS Ross.
DEBKAfile's military sources disclose that the 6,000 Marines and sailors aboard the Truman Strike Group come from four months of extensive and thorough training to prepare them for anticipated missions in the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean.

http://www.debka.com/article/8794/

[Rum]

Diplomacy 'by other means'.

[Ian]

Obama starts massive US Air-Sea-Marine build-up opposite Iran
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 20, 2010, 2:20 PM (GMT+02:00)
Tags: Aircraft carriers US-Iran

USS Truman carrier
DEBKAfile's military sources report a decision by the Obama administration to boost US military strength in the Mediterranean and Persian Gulf regions in the short term with an extra air and naval strike forces and 6,000 Marine and sea combatants. Carrier Strike Group 10, headed by the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier, sails out of the US Navy base at Norfolk, Virginia Friday, May 21. On arrival, it will raise the number of US carriers off Iranian shores to two. Up until now, President Barack Obama kept just one aircraft carrier stationed off the coast of Iran, the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower in the Arabian Sea, in pursuit of his policy of diplomatic engagement with Tehran.
For the first time, too, the US force opposite Iran will be joined by a German warship, the frigate FGS Hessen, operating under American command.
It is also the first time that Obama, since taking office 14 months ago, is sending military reinforcements to the Persian Gulf. Our military sources have learned that the USS Truman is just the first element of the new buildup of US resources around Iran. It will take place over the next three months, reaching peak level in late July and early August. By then, the Pentagon plans to have at least 4 or 5 US aircraft carriers visible from Iranian shores.
The USS Truman's accompanying Strike Group includes Carrier Air Wing Three (Battle Axe) - which has 7 squadrons - 4 of F/A-18 Super Hornet and F/A-18 Hornet bomber jets, as well as spy planes and early warning E-2 Hawkeyes that can operate in all weather conditions; the Electronic Attack Squadron 130 for disrupting enemy radar systems; and Squadron 7 of helicopters for anti-submarine combat (In its big naval exercise last week, Iran exhibited the Velayat 89 long-range missile for striking US aircraft carriers and Israel warships from Iranian submarines.)
Another four US warships will be making their way to the region to join the USS Truman and its Strike Group. They are the guided-missile cruiser USS Normandy and guided missile destroyers USS Winston S. Churchill, USS Oscar Austin and USS Ross.
DEBKAfile's military sources disclose that the 6,000 Marines and sailors aboard the Truman Strike Group come from four months of extensive and thorough training to prepare them for anticipated missions in the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean.

http://www.debka.com/article/8794/

This is what happens when people who don't know much about the military try to analyze it.

Having a 2-carrier presence in the gulf is not remotely new. Over the last thirty years, it's been fairly common. This does not necessarily signal a tougher foreign policy against Iran - they've seen the US 5th Fleet look a lot tougher than this.

As for the "4 or 5" presence I wouldn't count on it. It's unsustainable. This may mean nothing more than what happens when the groups "turn over" deployments with each other.

[Coito ergo sum]

Obama starts massive US Air-Sea-Marine build-up opposite Iran
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 20, 2010, 2:20 PM (GMT+02:00)
Tags: Aircraft carriers US-Iran

USS Truman carrier
DEBKAfile's military sources report a decision by the Obama administration to boost US military strength in the Mediterranean and Persian Gulf regions in the short term with an extra air and naval strike forces and 6,000 Marine and sea combatants. Carrier Strike Group 10, headed by the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier, sails out of the US Navy base at Norfolk, Virginia Friday, May 21. On arrival, it will raise the number of US carriers off Iranian shores to two. Up until now, President Barack Obama kept just one aircraft carrier stationed off the coast of Iran, the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower in the Arabian Sea, in pursuit of his policy of diplomatic engagement with Tehran.
For the first time, too, the US force opposite Iran will be joined by a German warship, the frigate FGS Hessen, operating under American command.
It is also the first time that Obama, since taking office 14 months ago, is sending military reinforcements to the Persian Gulf. Our military sources have learned that the USS Truman is just the first element of the new buildup of US resources around Iran. It will take place over the next three months, reaching peak level in late July and early August. By then, the Pentagon plans to have at least 4 or 5 US aircraft carriers visible from Iranian shores.
The USS Truman's accompanying Strike Group includes Carrier Air Wing Three (Battle Axe) - which has 7 squadrons - 4 of F/A-18 Super Hornet and F/A-18 Hornet bomber jets, as well as spy planes and early warning E-2 Hawkeyes that can operate in all weather conditions; the Electronic Attack Squadron 130 for disrupting enemy radar systems; and Squadron 7 of helicopters for anti-submarine combat (In its big naval exercise last week, Iran exhibited the Velayat 89 long-range missile for striking US aircraft carriers and Israel warships from Iranian submarines.)
Another four US warships will be making their way to the region to join the USS Truman and its Strike Group. They are the guided-missile cruiser USS Normandy and guided missile destroyers USS Winston S. Churchill, USS Oscar Austin and USS Ross.
DEBKAfile's military sources disclose that the 6,000 Marines and sailors aboard the Truman Strike Group come from four months of extensive and thorough training to prepare them for anticipated missions in the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean.

http://www.debka.com/article/8794/

This is what happens when people who don't know much about the military try to analyze it.

You think debka.com doesn't have your expertise on military analysis?

They've been doing this for over 10 years, and predicted an Al Qaeta attack on the WTC in 2000, and forewarned the Hezbollah Lebanon buildup before the war in 2006. They're pretty good - I first started reading their page shortly after 9/11/01, and they tend to be ahead of the curve.

[Ian]

Obama starts massive US Air-Sea-Marine build-up opposite Iran
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 20, 2010, 2:20 PM (GMT+02:00)
Tags: Aircraft carriers US-Iran

USS Truman carrier
DEBKAfile's military sources report a decision by the Obama administration to boost US military strength in the Mediterranean and Persian Gulf regions in the short term with an extra air and naval strike forces and 6,000 Marine and sea combatants. Carrier Strike Group 10, headed by the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier, sails out of the US Navy base at Norfolk, Virginia Friday, May 21. On arrival, it will raise the number of US carriers off Iranian shores to two. Up until now, President Barack Obama kept just one aircraft carrier stationed off the coast of Iran, the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower in the Arabian Sea, in pursuit of his policy of diplomatic engagement with Tehran.
For the first time, too, the US force opposite Iran will be joined by a German warship, the frigate FGS Hessen, operating under American command.
It is also the first time that Obama, since taking office 14 months ago, is sending military reinforcements to the Persian Gulf. Our military sources have learned that the USS Truman is just the first element of the new buildup of US resources around Iran. It will take place over the next three months, reaching peak level in late July and early August. By then, the Pentagon plans to have at least 4 or 5 US aircraft carriers visible from Iranian shores.
The USS Truman's accompanying Strike Group includes Carrier Air Wing Three (Battle Axe) - which has 7 squadrons - 4 of F/A-18 Super Hornet and F/A-18 Hornet bomber jets, as well as spy planes and early warning E-2 Hawkeyes that can operate in all weather conditions; the Electronic Attack Squadron 130 for disrupting enemy radar systems; and Squadron 7 of helicopters for anti-submarine combat (In its big naval exercise last week, Iran exhibited the Velayat 89 long-range missile for striking US aircraft carriers and Israel warships from Iranian submarines.)
Another four US warships will be making their way to the region to join the USS Truman and its Strike Group. They are the guided-missile cruiser USS Normandy and guided missile destroyers USS Winston S. Churchill, USS Oscar Austin and USS Ross.
DEBKAfile's military sources disclose that the 6,000 Marines and sailors aboard the Truman Strike Group come from four months of extensive and thorough training to prepare them for anticipated missions in the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean.

http://www.debka.com/article/8794/

This is what happens when people who don't know much about the military try to analyze it.

You think debka.com doesn't have your expertise on military analysis?

They've been doing this for over 10 years, and predicted an Al Qaeta attack on the WTC in 2000, and forewarned the Hezbollah Lebanon buildup before the war in 2006. They're pretty good - I first started reading their page shortly after 9/11/01, and they tend to be ahead of the curve.

Yeah, I'm pretty skeptical. Every word in that article describes nothing more than routine Navy workups, except for the "four or five carriers" within sight of Iran. And like I said, what that implies isn't so clear-cut. It will probably amount to nothing, or maybe just a short-lived attempt at adding to diplomatic pressure (feel free to save this post for mid-summer).