Noisy neighbors to the north acting up again. o,0

[Warren Dew]

Wondering if this is a sign of an impending arms race in NEAsia. How long before Japan decides it's necessary to have nukes in order to counter NK's nuclear program? SK is already considering it.

That would make things seriously difficult for the U.S.

Japan could also get into serious trouble that way, since everyone else in the region suffered from their military in WWII.

[Clinton Huxley]

Looks like Japan is re-configuring it's forces away from a Cold War configuration and more towards facing China. Can't see them going for nukes, though, especially with a moribund economy and a defence budget set at a very low 0.9% of GDP. Where's the dough?

[FBM]

Looks like Japan is re-configuring it's forces away from a Cold War configuration and more towards facing China. Can't see them going for nukes, though, especially with a moribund economy and a defence budget set at a very low 0.9% of GDP. Where's the dough?

A good threat of war from time to time is the perfect stimulus to get the unwashed to work harder, innit?

[Hermit]

Japan could also get into serious trouble that way

Not if it wins.

Anyway, the US needs as many allies against China's growing power, and the stronger they are, the better. So,...

[Clinton Huxley]

Japan could also get into serious trouble that way

Not if it wins.

Anyway, the US needs as many allies against China's growing power, and the stronger they are, the better. So,...

Maybe Japan could buy a Trident Franchise, like we did...

[Hermit]

Japan could also get into serious trouble that way

Not if it wins.

Anyway, the US needs as many allies against China's growing power, and the stronger they are, the better. So,...

Maybe Japan could buy a Trident Franchise, like we did...

Double-win.

[Warren Dew]

Japan could also get into serious trouble that way

Not if it wins.

Nobody wins a war with nuclear weapons on both sides. At best, you don't lose quite as badly as the other guy, but you still lose.

[Warren Dew]

Looks like Japan is re-configuring it's forces away from a Cold War configuration and more towards facing China. Can't see them going for nukes, though, especially with a moribund economy and a defence budget set at a very low 0.9% of GDP. Where's the dough?

Nukes are cheap relative to conventional weapons. At least as long as they're not used.

[Clinton Huxley]

Looks like Japan is re-configuring it's forces away from a Cold War configuration and more towards facing China. Can't see them going for nukes, though, especially with a moribund economy and a defence budget set at a very low 0.9% of GDP. Where's the dough?

Nukes are cheap relative to conventional weapons. At least as long as they're not used.

Not exactly cheap, either. Especially if you have to build the infrastructure from scratch.

[Hermit]

Japan could also get into serious trouble that way

Not if it wins.

Nobody wins a war with nuclear weapons on both sides. At best, you don't lose quite as badly as the other guy, but you still lose.

Does that mean that Japan is in more serious trouble if it joins an arms race than if it did not?





Edit: What if it refused to join in an arms race and chose to compete in a foot race instead?

[Clinton Huxley]

This year, Asian defence spending over-took Western European defence spending for the first time since records have been kept. Someone will want to use all that kit at some point....

[Warren Dew]

Does that mean that Japan is in more serious trouble if it joins an arms race than if it did not?

Yes.

Edit: What if it refused to join in an arms race and chose to compete in a foot race instead?

That would be considerably safer.

[FBM]

Well, fuck me.

A nice bedtime story in the news today:

http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/sp ... 78057.html

One nuclear backpack makes Seoul sea of fire; NK residents

North Korean soldiers and residents have mentioned the possibility that nuclear weapons may be used against South Korea amid the recent radical claims of “nuclear war on the Korean Peninsula” by the North, Open Radio for North Korea reported Tuesday.

Earlier, Nodong Sinmun, a mouthpiece paper of North Korea’s Workers’ Party, reported that “the betrayal of South Korea has heightened the tension between the North and South and created dark cloud of nuclear war on the Korean Peninsula.”

“We will make Seoul a sea of fire without fail if anyone invade our territory, airspace and waters even by 0.001 millimeter,” Uriminzok, the Internet site of North Korea’s Commission for Peaceful Unification of the Fatherland, also said on Nov. 28

According to the radio, an inside source of North Korea said that there are rumors spreading among North Korean residents that “Seoul could be a sea of fire when we detonate a nuclear bomb brought in a backpack and then immediately South Korea surrenders.”

A man, who participated in the military drill at the Samjiyeon Airport on Nov. 25, said an Air Force officer had also made a similar remark. “We can win with only one nuclear weapon.”

Such a remark came when several soldiers questioned during the drill, “Isn’t it problem that (fighter jets) could not be used due to lack of fuel.”

“Why do you say such a thing although you know all?” an officer said. “We don’t need good jets. Nuclear weapons are all. We can win (with nuclear weapons) when our General is with us.”

There are mixed opinions about the existence of nuclear backpacks in the North. Most of experts have the opinion that North Korea has no technology to make the nuclear weapons to the smaller size of backpack as it has yet to make the nuclear head smaller for missiles.

However, some have presumed that 48 of the 132 nuclear backpacks were lost when the Soviet Union got disbanded and several of them seemed to come into the North. As a result, they claimed that they could not rule out the possibility of the North to use the nuclear backpacks.

The nuclear backpack is officially called “special atomic demolition munitions” which commandos carry on their back to penetrate deep into the enemy’s rear area to hit air force bases, dams and other important buildings.

The backpack weighs about 30 kilograms, ranging in power fro 10 tons of TNT to 1 kiloton. The nuclear bomb, which exploded in Hiroshima, Japan, during the second World War, was equivalent to 12 kilotons of TNT in destruction power.

The radio said it has become apparent that the North could threaten a nuclear war against the South although it is hard to conclude that the North may actually use the nuclear weapons, when all the recent inside information is taken into account.

Combined with this little gem I ran across some time ago:

On October 9, 2006, North Korea announced it had conducted a nuclear test. The USGS reported a magnitude of 4.2 on the Richter Scale with a location at 41.29N 129.09E +/- 8.1 km. Initial speculations about the yield ranged from less than 1 kt up to 15 kt. On October 16, 2006, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence announced that analysis of air-samples conducted on October 11 had confirmed that the event had been an underground nuclear explosion near P'unggye on October 9, 2006. DNI concluded that the "explosion yield was less than a kiloton."

http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/dprk/nuke/index.html


I/We may already be fucked.

[Clinton Huxley]

Are they crazy enough? The only end result of nuking Seoul would be the destruction of North Korea....

I will send you some lead-lined underpants though, just in case.

[FBM]

Are they crazy enough?

Yeah. And this is just a list of border incidents. There are quite a few things not listed. More here.

The only end result of nuking Seoul would be the destruction of North Korea....

Yeah, but try telling that to the unknown number of operatives already down here, thoroughly brainwashed and ready to go.

I will send you some lead-lined underpants though, just in case.

I'd appreciate fur lining. I tend to chafe, you see...