US Election 2020
- Tero
- Just saying
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Re: US Election 2020
The polls ARE tricky. We had one swing district in the state that was worth polling in 2018. The paper had to go out of its way to get 1000-2000 people to poll in a county with a good size population. The poll was accurate, though. For the Democrat/Republican seat.
https://esapolitics.blogspot.com
http://esabirdsne.blogspot.com/
Said Peter...what you're requesting just isn't my bag
Said Daemon, who's sorry too, but y'see we didn't have no choice
And our hands they are many and we'd be of one voice
We've come all the way from Wigan to get up and state
Our case for survival before it's too late
Turn stone to bread, said Daemon Duncetan
Turn stone to bread right away...
http://esabirdsne.blogspot.com/
Said Peter...what you're requesting just isn't my bag
Said Daemon, who's sorry too, but y'see we didn't have no choice
And our hands they are many and we'd be of one voice
We've come all the way from Wigan to get up and state
Our case for survival before it's too late
Turn stone to bread, said Daemon Duncetan
Turn stone to bread right away...
- Tero
- Just saying
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Re: US Election 2020
white old men leading despite being white old men
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story ... ent-226977These survey results challenge existing studies on the role of identity and bias in candidate preferences. Past political science research has found that female candidates win at similar rates to male candidates, but that’s only because the women who enter races tend to be better candidates independent of gender. Based on our study, in this primary, women are actually preferred because of their gender, independent of other attributes. Similarly, when it comes to minority candidates, existing studies are on balance more negative and show that nonwhite candidates have often been penalized, especially by the white electorate. In 2019, however, most Democratic voters—including whites—say they would prefer minority candidates over their white counterparts. This is likely because of the shifting demographic makeup of the party’s primary voters as well as evolving attitudes.
Voters are eager for change, not only in terms of policy but also with regard to who represents them. Clearly, ideological and policy positions are also important, but our research shows that demographic characteristics can certainly affect how voters assess candidates.
So why then are two white men leading in the polls? Our findings give us probabilities based on the demographic traits of hypothetical candidates “all else being equal.” But in the real world, all else is not equal—the real race involves Biden, Harris, Sanders, Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren and other candidates with specific histories, skills, foibles and policy positions. And right now, two white guys are in the lead, regardless of what Democratic primary voters prefer in the abstract.
It’s possible that, when presented with real names and backgrounds, Democrats stick with white men because of subconscious biases that affect their judgments of the character, history or “likability” of women and minority candidates. Or it could be that Democratic primary voters who prefer a nonwhite, nonmale candidate believe it’s safer to choose a white man for the general election. (Though a new study suggests that strategy could backfire, because a white male nominee could lower Democratic enthusiasm in the general election.)
https://esapolitics.blogspot.com
http://esabirdsne.blogspot.com/
Said Peter...what you're requesting just isn't my bag
Said Daemon, who's sorry too, but y'see we didn't have no choice
And our hands they are many and we'd be of one voice
We've come all the way from Wigan to get up and state
Our case for survival before it's too late
Turn stone to bread, said Daemon Duncetan
Turn stone to bread right away...
http://esabirdsne.blogspot.com/
Said Peter...what you're requesting just isn't my bag
Said Daemon, who's sorry too, but y'see we didn't have no choice
And our hands they are many and we'd be of one voice
We've come all the way from Wigan to get up and state
Our case for survival before it's too late
Turn stone to bread, said Daemon Duncetan
Turn stone to bread right away...
- Tero
- Just saying
- Posts: 47197
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Re: US Election 2020
Kamala Harris had a badly fitting pant suit in her town hall. Don't they tailor for women like they do for men? Some light puffy fabric crimped in the back. This is an outfit for working customer service at Target. Or maybe a fancy hotel's reception.
https://esapolitics.blogspot.com
http://esabirdsne.blogspot.com/
Said Peter...what you're requesting just isn't my bag
Said Daemon, who's sorry too, but y'see we didn't have no choice
And our hands they are many and we'd be of one voice
We've come all the way from Wigan to get up and state
Our case for survival before it's too late
Turn stone to bread, said Daemon Duncetan
Turn stone to bread right away...
http://esabirdsne.blogspot.com/
Said Peter...what you're requesting just isn't my bag
Said Daemon, who's sorry too, but y'see we didn't have no choice
And our hands they are many and we'd be of one voice
We've come all the way from Wigan to get up and state
Our case for survival before it's too late
Turn stone to bread, said Daemon Duncetan
Turn stone to bread right away...
- pErvinalia
- On the good stuff
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Re: US Election 2020
She needs Hillary's tailor..
Sent from my penis using wankertalk.
"The Western world is fucking awesome because of mostly white men" - DaveDodo007.
"Socialized medicine is just exactly as morally defensible as gassing and cooking Jews" - Seth. Yes, he really did say that..
"Seth you are a boon to this community" - Cunt.
"I am seriously thinking of going on a spree killing" - Svartalf.
"The Western world is fucking awesome because of mostly white men" - DaveDodo007.
"Socialized medicine is just exactly as morally defensible as gassing and cooking Jews" - Seth. Yes, he really did say that..
"Seth you are a boon to this community" - Cunt.
"I am seriously thinking of going on a spree killing" - Svartalf.
- Tero
- Just saying
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Re: US Election 2020
nrakich: Maybe the economy right now isn’t relevant, but the economy in 2020 will be.
natesilver: The notion that a good economy helps incumbents is broadly right, but fundamentals models can be overrated, and some of them are badly designed.
If I’m Trump, I’d be a little scared that my approval rating is only at 41 or 42
perry: If the economy is terrible, will that hurt Trump? Sure. But is the reverse true? Could he lose with a great economy? I think so.
natesilver: I’m not an economic forecaster, but I know that the economy is mean-reverting, meaning that since it’s good now, it’s more likely to get worse than better.
And if Trump’s approval is at 41 or 42 percent with a good economy, where does that put him with a mediocre economy?
nrakich: He definitely has more downside than upside, IMO. Like, it’s harder to see things getting much better for Trump. But it could definitely get worse, if there’s a recession or if special counsel Robert Mueller’s report is really bad for him.
Right now, Trump looks like an even bet for re-election. But the status quo is probably his best-case scenario.
natesilver: I wouldn’t say it’s his best case. You could have 6 percent GDP growth! Who knows!
geoffrey.skelley: All this suggests to me that Trump’s re-election chances are tied to the economic news remaining positive. If that happens, I agree with Nathaniel that he’s a 50-50 bet. If we hit a recession or near-zero growth, I think that makes him an underdog.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wh ... es-so-far/
natesilver: The notion that a good economy helps incumbents is broadly right, but fundamentals models can be overrated, and some of them are badly designed.
If I’m Trump, I’d be a little scared that my approval rating is only at 41 or 42
perry: If the economy is terrible, will that hurt Trump? Sure. But is the reverse true? Could he lose with a great economy? I think so.
natesilver: I’m not an economic forecaster, but I know that the economy is mean-reverting, meaning that since it’s good now, it’s more likely to get worse than better.
And if Trump’s approval is at 41 or 42 percent with a good economy, where does that put him with a mediocre economy?
nrakich: He definitely has more downside than upside, IMO. Like, it’s harder to see things getting much better for Trump. But it could definitely get worse, if there’s a recession or if special counsel Robert Mueller’s report is really bad for him.
Right now, Trump looks like an even bet for re-election. But the status quo is probably his best-case scenario.
natesilver: I wouldn’t say it’s his best case. You could have 6 percent GDP growth! Who knows!
geoffrey.skelley: All this suggests to me that Trump’s re-election chances are tied to the economic news remaining positive. If that happens, I agree with Nathaniel that he’s a 50-50 bet. If we hit a recession or near-zero growth, I think that makes him an underdog.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wh ... es-so-far/
https://esapolitics.blogspot.com
http://esabirdsne.blogspot.com/
Said Peter...what you're requesting just isn't my bag
Said Daemon, who's sorry too, but y'see we didn't have no choice
And our hands they are many and we'd be of one voice
We've come all the way from Wigan to get up and state
Our case for survival before it's too late
Turn stone to bread, said Daemon Duncetan
Turn stone to bread right away...
http://esabirdsne.blogspot.com/
Said Peter...what you're requesting just isn't my bag
Said Daemon, who's sorry too, but y'see we didn't have no choice
And our hands they are many and we'd be of one voice
We've come all the way from Wigan to get up and state
Our case for survival before it's too late
Turn stone to bread, said Daemon Duncetan
Turn stone to bread right away...
- Tero
- Just saying
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- Joined: Sun Jul 04, 2010 9:50 pm
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Re: US Election 2020
These analysts always forget guns babies and Jesus.
https://esapolitics.blogspot.com
http://esabirdsne.blogspot.com/
Said Peter...what you're requesting just isn't my bag
Said Daemon, who's sorry too, but y'see we didn't have no choice
And our hands they are many and we'd be of one voice
We've come all the way from Wigan to get up and state
Our case for survival before it's too late
Turn stone to bread, said Daemon Duncetan
Turn stone to bread right away...
http://esabirdsne.blogspot.com/
Said Peter...what you're requesting just isn't my bag
Said Daemon, who's sorry too, but y'see we didn't have no choice
And our hands they are many and we'd be of one voice
We've come all the way from Wigan to get up and state
Our case for survival before it's too late
Turn stone to bread, said Daemon Duncetan
Turn stone to bread right away...
- Tero
- Just saying
- Posts: 47197
- Joined: Sun Jul 04, 2010 9:50 pm
- About me: 15-32-25
- Location: USA
- Contact:
Re: US Election 2020
https://esapolitics.blogspot.com
http://esabirdsne.blogspot.com/
Said Peter...what you're requesting just isn't my bag
Said Daemon, who's sorry too, but y'see we didn't have no choice
And our hands they are many and we'd be of one voice
We've come all the way from Wigan to get up and state
Our case for survival before it's too late
Turn stone to bread, said Daemon Duncetan
Turn stone to bread right away...
http://esabirdsne.blogspot.com/
Said Peter...what you're requesting just isn't my bag
Said Daemon, who's sorry too, but y'see we didn't have no choice
And our hands they are many and we'd be of one voice
We've come all the way from Wigan to get up and state
Our case for survival before it's too late
Turn stone to bread, said Daemon Duncetan
Turn stone to bread right away...
- Tero
- Just saying
- Posts: 47197
- Joined: Sun Jul 04, 2010 9:50 pm
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Re: US Election 2020
If Trump gets 45%, he will get a "Nixon" win, the 68 Nixon. If he gets 40%, he is toast.
https://www.dailywire.com/news/47984/ne ... osh-hammerThe Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll does include some gloomier, less sanguine news for the president, however. As The Hill observes, "Only 37 percent of voters said they would definitely or probably vote for Trump in the 2020 presidential election, compared to 42 percent who said they would definitely or probably vote for the Democratic nominee." One explanation for the discrepancy between Trump's more objective "approval" rating and the more subjective "would you vote for Trump" polling metric is the possibility that this president, more than perhaps any before him, is deeply polarizing and elicits very strong personal reactions on both political sides.
https://esapolitics.blogspot.com
http://esabirdsne.blogspot.com/
Said Peter...what you're requesting just isn't my bag
Said Daemon, who's sorry too, but y'see we didn't have no choice
And our hands they are many and we'd be of one voice
We've come all the way from Wigan to get up and state
Our case for survival before it's too late
Turn stone to bread, said Daemon Duncetan
Turn stone to bread right away...
http://esabirdsne.blogspot.com/
Said Peter...what you're requesting just isn't my bag
Said Daemon, who's sorry too, but y'see we didn't have no choice
And our hands they are many and we'd be of one voice
We've come all the way from Wigan to get up and state
Our case for survival before it's too late
Turn stone to bread, said Daemon Duncetan
Turn stone to bread right away...
- Tero
- Just saying
- Posts: 47197
- Joined: Sun Jul 04, 2010 9:50 pm
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Re: US Election 2020
Women candidates. From Reddit
-Sexism didn't make a difference
-uhh....
-Hillary was a horrible candidate
-She wasn't. That's the thing, she was one of the best ever, she had an approval rating of almost 70%, THATS INSANE. But as soon she began ruining for office people's perceptions of her were skewed and coverage of her was wildly off base, sexism is a big part of that. This is a well researched and well discussed phenomenon.
here are a couple of good articles that explain it better than I can.
https://qz.com/624346/america-loves-wom ... promotion/
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/11/us/p ... -2020.html
https://www.thecut.com/2012/12/hillary- ... ch-22.html
https://esapolitics.blogspot.com
http://esabirdsne.blogspot.com/
Said Peter...what you're requesting just isn't my bag
Said Daemon, who's sorry too, but y'see we didn't have no choice
And our hands they are many and we'd be of one voice
We've come all the way from Wigan to get up and state
Our case for survival before it's too late
Turn stone to bread, said Daemon Duncetan
Turn stone to bread right away...
http://esabirdsne.blogspot.com/
Said Peter...what you're requesting just isn't my bag
Said Daemon, who's sorry too, but y'see we didn't have no choice
And our hands they are many and we'd be of one voice
We've come all the way from Wigan to get up and state
Our case for survival before it's too late
Turn stone to bread, said Daemon Duncetan
Turn stone to bread right away...
- Tero
- Just saying
- Posts: 47197
- Joined: Sun Jul 04, 2010 9:50 pm
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Re: US Election 2020
Elizabeth Warren...
https://esapolitics.blogspot.com
http://esabirdsne.blogspot.com/
Said Peter...what you're requesting just isn't my bag
Said Daemon, who's sorry too, but y'see we didn't have no choice
And our hands they are many and we'd be of one voice
We've come all the way from Wigan to get up and state
Our case for survival before it's too late
Turn stone to bread, said Daemon Duncetan
Turn stone to bread right away...
http://esabirdsne.blogspot.com/
Said Peter...what you're requesting just isn't my bag
Said Daemon, who's sorry too, but y'see we didn't have no choice
And our hands they are many and we'd be of one voice
We've come all the way from Wigan to get up and state
Our case for survival before it's too late
Turn stone to bread, said Daemon Duncetan
Turn stone to bread right away...
- Tero
- Just saying
- Posts: 47197
- Joined: Sun Jul 04, 2010 9:50 pm
- About me: 15-32-25
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Re: US Election 2020
Kill the babies with tax money!
https://esapolitics.blogspot.com
http://esabirdsne.blogspot.com/
Said Peter...what you're requesting just isn't my bag
Said Daemon, who's sorry too, but y'see we didn't have no choice
And our hands they are many and we'd be of one voice
We've come all the way from Wigan to get up and state
Our case for survival before it's too late
Turn stone to bread, said Daemon Duncetan
Turn stone to bread right away...
http://esabirdsne.blogspot.com/
Said Peter...what you're requesting just isn't my bag
Said Daemon, who's sorry too, but y'see we didn't have no choice
And our hands they are many and we'd be of one voice
We've come all the way from Wigan to get up and state
Our case for survival before it's too late
Turn stone to bread, said Daemon Duncetan
Turn stone to bread right away...
- Tero
- Just saying
- Posts: 47197
- Joined: Sun Jul 04, 2010 9:50 pm
- About me: 15-32-25
- Location: USA
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Re: US Election 2020
When the economy is doing well...for now...abortion always bubbles up to be a major issue at the state and national level:
https://esapolitics.blogspot.com/2019/06/abortion.html
https://esapolitics.blogspot.com/2019/06/abortion.html
https://esapolitics.blogspot.com
http://esabirdsne.blogspot.com/
Said Peter...what you're requesting just isn't my bag
Said Daemon, who's sorry too, but y'see we didn't have no choice
And our hands they are many and we'd be of one voice
We've come all the way from Wigan to get up and state
Our case for survival before it's too late
Turn stone to bread, said Daemon Duncetan
Turn stone to bread right away...
http://esabirdsne.blogspot.com/
Said Peter...what you're requesting just isn't my bag
Said Daemon, who's sorry too, but y'see we didn't have no choice
And our hands they are many and we'd be of one voice
We've come all the way from Wigan to get up and state
Our case for survival before it's too late
Turn stone to bread, said Daemon Duncetan
Turn stone to bread right away...
- Tero
- Just saying
- Posts: 47197
- Joined: Sun Jul 04, 2010 9:50 pm
- About me: 15-32-25
- Location: USA
- Contact:
Re: US Election 2020
Politically, abortion has been a stronger voting issue for Republicans than for Democrats. This poll found that abortion ranks as the second-most-important issue for Republicans in deciding their vote for president, behind immigration. But for Democrats, it is fifth — behind health care, America's role in the world, climate change and personal financial well-being.
https://www.npr.org/2019/06/07/73018353 ... strictions
https://www.npr.org/2019/06/07/73018353 ... strictions
https://esapolitics.blogspot.com
http://esabirdsne.blogspot.com/
Said Peter...what you're requesting just isn't my bag
Said Daemon, who's sorry too, but y'see we didn't have no choice
And our hands they are many and we'd be of one voice
We've come all the way from Wigan to get up and state
Our case for survival before it's too late
Turn stone to bread, said Daemon Duncetan
Turn stone to bread right away...
http://esabirdsne.blogspot.com/
Said Peter...what you're requesting just isn't my bag
Said Daemon, who's sorry too, but y'see we didn't have no choice
And our hands they are many and we'd be of one voice
We've come all the way from Wigan to get up and state
Our case for survival before it's too late
Turn stone to bread, said Daemon Duncetan
Turn stone to bread right away...
- Tero
- Just saying
- Posts: 47197
- Joined: Sun Jul 04, 2010 9:50 pm
- About me: 15-32-25
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- Contact:
Re: US Election 2020
"She's gonna raise taxes to pay for all her fancy plans!"
No.
just the old TAX THE RICH plan
No.
https://www.dailydot.com/layer8/elizabe ... gop-tweet/The critical tweet seems to have found many people on Twitter who don’t agree with its assessment. Many pointed out that the @GOP’s assertion that “everyday Americans” would be paying for Warren’s proposals doesn’t square with that the Massachusetts senator has said.
Warren has said raising taxes on extremely wealthy Americans could help pay for many of her proposals. She’s detailed it in extensive fashion.
just the old TAX THE RICH plan
https://esapolitics.blogspot.com
http://esabirdsne.blogspot.com/
Said Peter...what you're requesting just isn't my bag
Said Daemon, who's sorry too, but y'see we didn't have no choice
And our hands they are many and we'd be of one voice
We've come all the way from Wigan to get up and state
Our case for survival before it's too late
Turn stone to bread, said Daemon Duncetan
Turn stone to bread right away...
http://esabirdsne.blogspot.com/
Said Peter...what you're requesting just isn't my bag
Said Daemon, who's sorry too, but y'see we didn't have no choice
And our hands they are many and we'd be of one voice
We've come all the way from Wigan to get up and state
Our case for survival before it's too late
Turn stone to bread, said Daemon Duncetan
Turn stone to bread right away...
Re: US Election 2020
I think it's because of the extremes.
For me, anyone should be allowed to evict anyone else from their body, for any (or no) reason, at any time.
It's pretty simple, but ugly as FUCK when one examines abortion. I don't try to pretend that a zygote isn't 'human life', or that human life doesn't begin until birth. I think human life began hundreds of thousands of years ago, with very blurry divisions since then.
Anyway, the Dems have been forced to admit that same position, but in ugly fashion. Folks who wouldn't care about the issue, are confronted with 'live birth abortion' and other edges, and most people won't think too deeply, instead will just reject the baby-killers.
It doesn't help at all that Planned Parenthood looks VERY much like a corrupt political organization.
Shit, Piss, Cock, Cunt, Motherfucker, Cocksucker and Tits.
-various artists
-various artists
The 'Walsh Question' 'What Is A Woman?' I'll put an answer here when someone posts one that is clear and comprehensible, by apostates to the Faith.
Update: I've been offered one!
Strong ideas don't require censorship to survive. Weak ideas cannot survive without it.
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