Can anyone make sense of this?

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Re: Can anyone make sense of this?

Post by Xamonas Chegwé » Sun Apr 12, 2009 12:00 am

Occam's razor can be a bit of a red herring. In scientific terms, the obvious explanation is not always the correct one. It is usually a good approximation to 'the right one' based on the available evidence, but usually not much more than that. And, importantly, scientific thinking never claims that is ever more than that!

As an example, Newton's laws of motion are an excellent approximation to the real world but they fall short of explaining ALL observed evidence. Einstein's relativity does a better job - but does that explain everything? Well no - it doesn't. It is simply a better tool for approximating but not a perfect one. Subsequent improved observations and refined theories have improved upon this theory as well. That is the nature of science - it evolves, unlike dogma. There are no absolute claims in science, merely ever more accurate described improvements that fit ever more accurately gathered data.

In short, any scientific theory is only as good as the system of measurement that provided the evidence for that theory.

However, what Occam's Razor does provide is an excellent way of eliminating the hopelessly banal and ridiculous theories from consideration. By the time of Newton's theories it was already apparent that the stopping of the sun in the sky as described in the book of Joshua would be ultimately detrimental (if not fatal) to all life on Earth. Similarly, theories of thermodynamics rendered the description of the 'burning bush' unlikely as described in Genesis; Knowledge of hydrostatics made 'walking on water' scientifically impossible; the development of psychology and the physiology of the brain makes casting out demons into a herd of pigs more than a little implausible.

Religion is primitive, ridiculous, ill-considered bollocks. But merely saying that it is 'because of Occam's Razor', without offering scientifically demonstrated alternatives based on improved methods of extracting evidence is not going to sow a single seed of doubt in the mind of a 'believer.' Knowing that it is wrong is not enough, understanding why it is wrong is everything.
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Re: Can anyone make sense of this?

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Sun Apr 12, 2009 12:05 am

Animavore wrote:
Gawdzilla wrote:IF something created life on this planet at the beginning they're totally fubar, IMHO. For proof, consider that life during the first few BILLION years on Earth consisted mostly of cyanobacteria. How many BILLION years does it take to get something interesting out of slime?
Maybe they went into statsis for a few billion years until they awoke in the 50's and started paying visits :dono:
Sounds like something I see on AboveTopSecret. (There is currently a 15 page thread on "the moon is artificial." :banghead: )
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Re: Can anyone make sense of this?

Post by Animavore » Sun Apr 12, 2009 12:07 am

Gawdzilla wrote:
Animavore wrote:
Gawdzilla wrote:IF something created life on this planet at the beginning they're totally fubar, IMHO. For proof, consider that life during the first few BILLION years on Earth consisted mostly of cyanobacteria. How many BILLION years does it take to get something interesting out of slime?
Maybe they went into statsis for a few billion years until they awoke in the 50's and started paying visits :dono:
Sounds like something I see on AboveTopSecret. (There is currently a 15 page thread on "the moon is artificial." :banghead: )
Isn't it? :what:
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Re: Can anyone make sense of this?

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Sun Apr 12, 2009 12:20 am

Animavore wrote:
Gawdzilla wrote:
Animavore wrote:
Gawdzilla wrote:IF something created life on this planet at the beginning they're totally fubar, IMHO. For proof, consider that life during the first few BILLION years on Earth consisted mostly of cyanobacteria. How many BILLION years does it take to get something interesting out of slime?
Maybe they went into statsis for a few billion years until they awoke in the 50's and started paying visits :dono:
Sounds like something I see on AboveTopSecret. (There is currently a 15 page thread on "the moon is artificial." :banghead: )
Isn't it? :what:
Well, yes, but we didn't want that to get out. :whisper:
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Re: Can anyone make sense of this?

Post by MedGen » Sun Apr 12, 2009 7:24 am

Xamonas Chegwé wrote:Occam's razor can be a bit of a red herring. In scientific terms, the obvious explanation is not always the correct one. It is usually a good approximation to 'the right one' based on the available evidence, but usually not much more than that. And, importantly, scientific thinking never claims that is ever more than that!

As an example, Newton's laws of motion are an excellent approximation to the real world but they fall short of explaining ALL observed evidence. Einstein's relativity does a better job - but does that explain everything? Well no - it doesn't. It is simply a better tool for approximating but not a perfect one. Subsequent improved observations and refined theories have improved upon this theory as well. That is the nature of science - it evolves, unlike dogma. There are no absolute claims in science, merely ever more accurate described improvements that fit ever more accurately gathered data.

In short, any scientific theory is only as good as the system of measurement that provided the evidence for that theory.

However, what Occam's Razor does provide is an excellent way of eliminating the hopelessly banal and ridiculous theories from consideration. By the time of Newton's theories it was already apparent that the stopping of the sun in the sky as described in the book of Joshua would be ultimately detrimental (if not fatal) to all life on Earth. Similarly, theories of thermodynamics rendered the description of the 'burning bush' unlikely as described in Genesis; Knowledge of hydrostatics made 'walking on water' scientifically impossible; the development of psychology and the physiology of the brain makes casting out demons into a herd of pigs more than a little implausible.

Religion is primitive, ridiculous, ill-considered bollocks. But merely saying that it is 'because of Occam's Razor', without offering scientifically demonstrated alternatives based on improved methods of extracting evidence is not going to sow a single seed of doubt in the mind of a 'believer.' Knowing that it is wrong is not enough, understanding why it is wrong is everything.
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Re: Can anyone make sense of this?

Post by Gawdzilla Sama » Sun Apr 12, 2009 10:31 am

Xamonas Chegwé wrote:Occam's razor can be a bit of a red herring. In scientific terms, the obvious explanation is not always the correct one. It is usually a good approximation to 'the right one' based on the available evidence, but usually not much more than that. And, importantly, scientific thinking never claims that is ever more than that!

As an example, Newton's laws of motion are an excellent approximation to the real world but they fall short of explaining ALL observed evidence. Einstein's relativity does a better job - but does that explain everything? Well no - it doesn't. It is simply a better tool for approximating but not a perfect one. Subsequent improved observations and refined theories have improved upon this theory as well. That is the nature of science - it evolves, unlike dogma. There are no absolute claims in science, merely ever more accurate described improvements that fit ever more accurately gathered data.

In short, any scientific theory is only as good as the system of measurement that provided the evidence for that theory.

However, what Occam's Razor does provide is an excellent way of eliminating the hopelessly banal and ridiculous theories from consideration. By the time of Newton's theories it was already apparent that the stopping of the sun in the sky as described in the book of Joshua would be ultimately detrimental (if not fatal) to all life on Earth. Similarly, theories of thermodynamics rendered the description of the 'burning bush' unlikely as described in Genesis; Knowledge of hydrostatics made 'walking on water' scientifically impossible; the development of psychology and the physiology of the brain makes casting out demons into a herd of pigs more than a little implausible.

Religion is primitive, ridiculous, ill-considered bollocks. But merely saying that it is 'because of Occam's Razor', without offering scientifically demonstrated alternatives based on improved methods of extracting evidence is not going to sow a single seed of doubt in the mind of a 'believer.' Knowing that it is wrong is not enough, understanding why it is wrong is everything.
Properly applied, "Occam's Razor" is useful. It is not, however, meant to supply the "correct" answer, just the most likely given the information available.
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