Epic Correction of the Decade

Post Reply
User avatar
Hermit
Posts: 25806
Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 12:44 am
About me: Cantankerous grump
Location: Ignore lithpt
Contact:

Re: Epic Correction of the Decade

Post by Hermit » Sat Jul 08, 2017 12:42 am

mistermack wrote:And my money comes from the Bank of England. Hope they don't ask for it back.
Speaking of money and climate "sceptics",

Image
I am, somehow, less interested in the weight and convolutions of Einstein’s brain than in the near certainty that people of equal talent have lived and died in cotton fields and sweatshops. - Stephen J. Gould

User avatar
Animavore
Nasty Hombre
Posts: 39234
Joined: Sun Mar 01, 2009 11:26 am
Location: Ire Land.
Contact:

Re: Epic Correction of the Decade

Post by Animavore » Sat Jul 08, 2017 12:45 am

Just saw this right now. It made me chuckle.

Image
Libertarianism: The belief that out of all the terrible things governments can do, helping people is the absolute worst.

User avatar
Animavore
Nasty Hombre
Posts: 39234
Joined: Sun Mar 01, 2009 11:26 am
Location: Ire Land.
Contact:

Re: Epic Correction of the Decade

Post by Animavore » Sat Jul 08, 2017 1:20 am

Lol. I had this thread left open on the previous page and didn't even see the above post.
Libertarianism: The belief that out of all the terrible things governments can do, helping people is the absolute worst.

User avatar
JimC
The sentimental bloke
Posts: 73014
Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 7:58 am
About me: To be serious about gin requires years of dedicated research.
Location: Melbourne, Australia
Contact:

Re: Epic Correction of the Decade

Post by JimC » Sat Jul 08, 2017 5:32 am

It was worth posting twice, anyway...
Nurse, where the fuck's my cardigan?
And my gin!

User avatar
Rum
Absent Minded Processor
Posts: 37285
Joined: Wed Mar 11, 2009 9:25 pm
Location: South of the border..though not down Mexico way..
Contact:

Re: Epic Correction of the Decade

Post by Rum » Sat Jul 08, 2017 7:59 am

spectacular_newspaper_corrections_19.jpg

User avatar
pErvinalia
On the good stuff
Posts: 59295
Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2010 11:08 pm
About me: Spelling 'were' 'where'
Location: dystopia
Contact:

Re: Epic Correction of the Decade

Post by pErvinalia » Sat Jul 08, 2017 8:54 am

:coffeespray:
Sent from my penis using wankertalk.
"The Western world is fucking awesome because of mostly white men" - DaveDodo007.
"Socialized medicine is just exactly as morally defensible as gassing and cooking Jews" - Seth. Yes, he really did say that..
"Seth you are a boon to this community" - Cunt.
"I am seriously thinking of going on a spree killing" - Svartalf.

User avatar
Brian Peacock
Tipping cows since 1946
Posts: 37953
Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2009 11:44 am
About me: Ablate me:
Location: Location: Location:
Contact:

Re: Epic Correction of the Decade

Post by Brian Peacock » Sat Jul 08, 2017 10:15 am

mistermack wrote:
Brian Peacock wrote:I'm not interested in winning or losing. Facts are facts and I try and evaluate them on the balance of likelihood. You questioned the likelihood of lag in the warming cycle and now you're just copping out of explaining what you think you might have actually meant by that.

:tea:
Oh dear. You would be better off just forgetting it. We all get things wrong.
But since you persist, you claimed that global temperatures will not rise instantly with every additional x-tons of CO2.
If you add one CO2 molecule to the atmosphere, it will instantly start absorbing energy. It will warm. It will warm it's neighbours.
As it and it's neighbours are part of the atmosphere, then yes, that molecule instantly warms the atmosphere.
X tons of CO2 is just lots of molecules of CO2.

There is no lag. What happens to that heat afterwards can't be called a lag. The atmosphere warms first, BEFORE the heat goes elsewhere. With no lag.

Perhaps you are thinking about your farts. There might be a lag before people smell it. I can see how you might get confused. ;)
Your error is to maintain that X tons of CO2 added to the atmosphere should increase the ambient temperature of the entire atmosphere instantly such that there is no lag in the warming cycle. For this you have to presume that CO2 is only subject to warming influences and not cooling influences, and that all CO2 added to the system is distributed evenly throughout the system. You've basically been arguing for a moral norm, saying that that the atmosphere should be a simple system so it ought to display the attributes of a simple system, and because it does not display those characteristics climate science is false. In order to further that moral claim you've had to deny the thermal properties of CO2 and the amount of CO2 in, and added to, the atmosphere - and when you have been confronted with that information you've switched tack and touted the idea that even if the temperature does rise significantly it still won't present a problem. I point this out to you in the hope of motivating you towards a dispassionate re-examination of both your primary sources and your personal intuitions which those sources contribute to informing.
Rationalia relies on voluntary donations. There is no obligation of course, but if you value this place and want to see it continue please consider making a small donation towards the forum's running costs.
Details on how to do that can be found here.

.

"It isn't necessary to imagine the world ending in fire or ice.
There are two other possibilities: one is paperwork, and the other is nostalgia."

Frank Zappa

"This is how humanity ends; bickering over the irrelevant."
Clinton Huxley » 21 Jun 2012 » 14:10:36 GMT
.

User avatar
Tyrannical
Posts: 6326
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2010 4:59 am
Contact:

Re: Epic Correction of the Decade

Post by Tyrannical » Sat Jul 08, 2017 10:31 am

Your error is to maintain that X tons of CO2 added to the atmosphere should increase the ambient temperature of the entire atmosphere instantly such that there is no lag in the warming cycle.
That's how it's supposed to work, CO2 absorbs then emits infra red light. The heating should be almost instant. It doesn't gather up all that energy until one day...... :{D

Infrared ovens don't take centuries to heat up :hehe:
A rational skeptic should be able to discuss and debate anything, no matter how much they may personally disagree with that point of view. Discussing a subject is not agreeing with it, but understanding it.

User avatar
mistermack
Posts: 15093
Joined: Sat Apr 10, 2010 10:57 am
About me: Never rong.
Contact:

Re: Epic Correction of the Decade

Post by mistermack » Sat Jul 08, 2017 10:34 am

Brian Peacock wrote: Your error is to maintain that X tons of CO2 added to the atmosphere should increase the ambient temperature of the entire atmosphere instantly such that there is no lag in the warming cycle. For this you have to presume that CO2 is only subject to warming influences and not cooling influences, and that all CO2 added to the system is distributed evenly throughout the system. You've basically been arguing for a moral norm, saying that that the atmosphere should be a simple system so it ought to display the attributes of a simple system, and because it does not display those characteristics climate science is false. In order to further that moral claim you've had to deny the thermal properties of CO2 and the amount of CO2 in, and added to, the atmosphere - and when you have been confronted with that information you've switched tack and touted the idea that even if the temperature does rise significantly it still won't present a problem. I point this out to you in the hope of motivating you towards a dispassionate re-examination of both your primary sources and your personal intuitions which those sources contribute to informing.
You invented your own lag.
You got it wrong.
Now you search the planet for any kind of process that might be twisted to match what you originally pulled out of your ass.

It's getting very sad.
While there is a market for shit, there will be assholes to supply it.

User avatar
pErvinalia
On the good stuff
Posts: 59295
Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2010 11:08 pm
About me: Spelling 'were' 'where'
Location: dystopia
Contact:

Re: Epic Correction of the Decade

Post by pErvinalia » Sat Jul 08, 2017 10:42 am

What are you guys even arguing about? :think:
Sent from my penis using wankertalk.
"The Western world is fucking awesome because of mostly white men" - DaveDodo007.
"Socialized medicine is just exactly as morally defensible as gassing and cooking Jews" - Seth. Yes, he really did say that..
"Seth you are a boon to this community" - Cunt.
"I am seriously thinking of going on a spree killing" - Svartalf.

User avatar
mistermack
Posts: 15093
Joined: Sat Apr 10, 2010 10:57 am
About me: Never rong.
Contact:

Re: Epic Correction of the Decade

Post by mistermack » Sat Jul 08, 2017 11:11 am

A non-existent non-lag. Which was always a red herring anyway.
Heat travelling from the atmosphere to the deep oceans is an integral part of the circular chain process of more CO2 in the atmosphere causing even more CO2 in the atmosphere, causing runaway global warming that never happened.

What was claimed as a lag is actually part of the process. The deep ocean warms, can't hold so much CO2 in solution, and it escapes to the atmosphere causing yet more warming. Or it should.

What ACTUALLY happens, is that temperatures rise, CO2 rises, up to a peak, and then it all falls off a cliff, into the deepest freeze of the current ice age.

London buried under hundreds of feet of ice. Izzat wot you want? Cus at's wottle appen !!
While there is a market for shit, there will be assholes to supply it.

User avatar
Brian Peacock
Tipping cows since 1946
Posts: 37953
Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2009 11:44 am
About me: Ablate me:
Location: Location: Location:
Contact:

Re: Epic Correction of the Decade

Post by Brian Peacock » Sat Jul 08, 2017 11:19 am

That's one way of looking at it I suppose. Mr M said that the reported rise in CO2 ppm should be reflected in a measurable global temperature rise, and that as temperatures weren't rising steeply enough therefore climate science is false ("...runaway warming should occur if the planet is so sensitive to CO2 levels..."). I suggested he look toward the temperature trends as a better indicator of the effects of CO2 levels over time. I'm trying to get him to acknowledge that there's a cumulative lag in the warming cycle, that a single molecule of CO2 doesn't warm the entire atmosphere instantly any more than x tons of CO2 belched out of a plant somewhere leads to the instant rise in global temperatures which he implies should be the case, that the atmosphere is a distributive system, etc. So far he's been playing dumb on these matters.
Rationalia relies on voluntary donations. There is no obligation of course, but if you value this place and want to see it continue please consider making a small donation towards the forum's running costs.
Details on how to do that can be found here.

.

"It isn't necessary to imagine the world ending in fire or ice.
There are two other possibilities: one is paperwork, and the other is nostalgia."

Frank Zappa

"This is how humanity ends; bickering over the irrelevant."
Clinton Huxley » 21 Jun 2012 » 14:10:36 GMT
.

User avatar
mistermack
Posts: 15093
Joined: Sat Apr 10, 2010 10:57 am
About me: Never rong.
Contact:

Re: Epic Correction of the Decade

Post by mistermack » Sat Jul 08, 2017 11:23 am

20 years is a bloody good lag.

But funnily enough, the models didn't predict a 20 year lag. Nor a 10 year lag. Nor a 5 year lag.

But you can bet your life they do now.
While there is a market for shit, there will be assholes to supply it.

User avatar
Tero
Just saying
Posts: 47196
Joined: Sun Jul 04, 2010 9:50 pm
About me: 15-32-25
Location: USA
Contact:

Re: Epic Correction of the Decade

Post by Tero » Sat Jul 08, 2017 11:52 am

CO2 lag on 400 000 year scale
https://skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature.htm

The measured global warming between 1800 and 2000 is not really on that time scale, but in the short period of warming, CO2 and temps have gone hand in hand. On 120 year scale, there is no lag

http://zfacts.com/metaPage/lib/zFacts-C ... .gif?w=240

User avatar
Brian Peacock
Tipping cows since 1946
Posts: 37953
Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2009 11:44 am
About me: Ablate me:
Location: Location: Location:
Contact:

Re: Epic Correction of the Decade

Post by Brian Peacock » Sat Jul 08, 2017 4:42 pm

mistermack wrote:20 years is a bloody good lag.

But funnily enough, the models didn't predict a 20 year lag. Nor a 10 year lag. Nor a 5 year lag.

But you can bet your life they do now.
POXNEWS_NEWSFLASH.jpg
POXNEWS_NEWSFLASH.jpg (34.79 KiB) Viewed 3053 times
Rationalia relies on voluntary donations. There is no obligation of course, but if you value this place and want to see it continue please consider making a small donation towards the forum's running costs.
Details on how to do that can be found here.

.

"It isn't necessary to imagine the world ending in fire or ice.
There are two other possibilities: one is paperwork, and the other is nostalgia."

Frank Zappa

"This is how humanity ends; bickering over the irrelevant."
Clinton Huxley » 21 Jun 2012 » 14:10:36 GMT
.

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 15 guests