OK, past performance is a minor predictor of future performance but some people see nothing else to go by so they alsolutize it. I attribute very little meaning to it but that's me, and some other people I know. Either absolute position is fallacious. Like I wrote, I am probably too much Nassim Taleb school.pErvinalia wrote:No, you said past performance isn't any predictor to future performance. That's an absolutist statement that isn't going to change regardless of what application document it appears in.DRSB wrote:Not about the past experience in itself, but about the document. It belongs into the CV, not in the letter of motivation.pErvinalia wrote:"Definitely"? You appeared to be arguing above that past experience is essentially irrelevant. There's a disconnect there.
That's amazing ! Post incredible facts here.
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The Drunkard's Walk talks a bit about this too if I remember correctly. It deals with our tendency to attribute success to anything other than chance, for example, even when chance is clearly a better fit.
Re: That's amazing ! Post incredible facts here.
We are soon keen on finding patters because this is how we learn. Not so AI though, like I wrote on the other thread. The drunkard's walk is a metaphor for the memorylessness in Markov chains.Sean Hayden wrote:The Drunkard's Walk talks a bit about this too if I remember correctly. It deals with our tendency to attribute success to anything other than chance, for example, even when chance is clearly a better fit.
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The US has more than 89,000 local governments. Most citizens fall under at least 5 governments: national, state, county, municipal, and school district.
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And you elect law enforcement officers, which from over here seems so fucking weird...Sean Hayden wrote:The US has more than 89,000 local governments. Most citizens fall under at least 5 governments: national, state, county, municipal, and school district.
Nurse, where the fuck's my cardigan?
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Are dog catchers still elected?
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A man spent 90 million dollars recently to send an old car to Mars.
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Yes absurd when 28 million of fellow subjects cant afford health care.
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Ben, from Ben & Jerry's ice cream, has no sense of smell and gets his "food enjoyment" from texture. This is why the brand puts chunky ingredients in their icecream.
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Mary Read lived as a man, Mark Read, until she was outed by fellow pirate Anne Bonny. This was in the 18th century.
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The most unreliable predictor of future performance is what people say about their past performance.DRSB wrote:The most unreliable predictor of future performance is past performance.pErvinalia wrote:That's called bullshitting. I'm going to do this and that for your company. Yeah right. The only verifiable measure on potential future performance is past performance.
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Clinton Huxley » 21 Jun 2012 » 14:10:36 GMT
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"It isn't necessary to imagine the world ending in fire or ice.
There are two other possibilities: one is paperwork, and the other is nostalgia."
Frank Zappa
"This is how humanity ends; bickering over the irrelevant."
Clinton Huxley » 21 Jun 2012 » 14:10:36 GMT
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The older I become, the better I was.Brian Peacock wrote:The most unreliable predictor of future performance is what people say about their past performance.DRSB wrote:The most unreliable predictor of future performance is past performance.pErvinalia wrote:That's called bullshitting. I'm going to do this and that for your company. Yeah right. The only verifiable measure on potential future performance is past performance.
I am, somehow, less interested in the weight and convolutions of Einstein’s brain than in the near certainty that people of equal talent have lived and died in cotton fields and sweatshops. - Stephen J. Gould
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I think it's pot luck. I used to be involved in recruitment interviews maybe three or four times a year over 15 years or so. You got a decent impression about a person's ability to do a job but not how well. That didn't come out until they actually performed it. I know we picked a few duds as well as some positive surprises over the years.
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Canada has more doughnut shops per capita than any other country in the world.
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It's illegal to sell cakes on a Sunday or public holiday in Tallahassee, but you can still buy a bump stock.
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"It isn't necessary to imagine the world ending in fire or ice.
There are two other possibilities: one is paperwork, and the other is nostalgia."
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"This is how humanity ends; bickering over the irrelevant."
Clinton Huxley » 21 Jun 2012 » 14:10:36 GMT
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Details on how to do that can be found here.
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"It isn't necessary to imagine the world ending in fire or ice.
There are two other possibilities: one is paperwork, and the other is nostalgia."
Frank Zappa
"This is how humanity ends; bickering over the irrelevant."
Clinton Huxley » 21 Jun 2012 » 14:10:36 GMT
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