Long-term global warming trend sustained in 2013

[mistermack]

It's not thousands of wild guesses. Take 10 models and average them for the year to be predicted. Use the spread as standard deviation. Done.

Yeh. Done.

And wrong. Seventeen years in a row.

Doesn't that mean anything? Statistically?

I'll tell you. It means none of them have a fuckin clue.

[Svartalf]

I find it funny that, in the autumn, climatologists predicted a Siberian winter like last year, and we actually had the warmest one (and maybe wettest in some areas) since we started recording the weather. At any rate, it's interesting that we should have such wild variations in so short a time

[Tero]

It's not thousands of wild guesses. Take 10 models and average them for the year to be predicted. Use the spread as standard deviation. Done.

Yeh. Done.

And wrong. Seventeen years in a row.

Doesn't that mean anything? Statistically?

I'll tell you. It means none of them have a fuckin clue.

10 points off for bad sttitude. You get F in your quiz. You did not do the math.

[mistermack]

What gets me is that, if I had been a climate ''scientist'' and seventeen years ago, predicted that the temperatures today would be exactly the same, they would have lynched me as a climate ''criminal''.

That's the biased and unquestioning nature of the AGW freaks.

[mistermack]

It's not thousands of wild guesses. Take 10 models and average them for the year to be predicted. Use the spread as standard deviation. Done.

Yeh. Done.

And wrong. Seventeen years in a row.

Doesn't that mean anything? Statistically?

I'll tell you. It means none of them have a fuckin clue.

10 points off for bad sttitude. You get F in your quiz. You did not do the math.

Ha ha.
I got it right WITHOUT the mathssssssssssssssssssssssss.

[mistermack]

I find it funny that, in the autumn, climatologists predicted a Siberian winter like last year, and we actually had the warmest one (and maybe wettest in some areas) since we started recording the weather. At any rate, it's interesting that we should have such wild variations in so short a time

That's just the way the Jet Stream panned out.
It's a random pattern. Any combination can happen. What we got, others didn't.

[Svartalf]

Random pattern, yes... but we've been having far too many outliers of late, the span has changed and the average is no longer the norm.

[Tero]

It's not thousands of wild guesses. Take 10 models and average them for the year to be predicted. Use the spread as standard deviation. Done.

Yeh. Done.

And wrong. Seventeen years in a row.

Doesn't that mean anything? Statistically?

I'll tell you. It means none of them have a fuckin clue.

10 points off for bad sttitude. You get F in your quiz. You did not do the math.

Ha ha.
I got it right WITHOUT the mathssssssssssssssssssssssss.

If I said the global average will go up 0.5 C in x years, would you understand what that means? Explain it to the class.

[mistermack]

If I said the global average will go up 0.5 C in x years, would you understand what that means? Explain it to the class.

Yes. It means Tero is bullshitting again. He doesn't know, he's only guessing.

But what he DOES know, is that it will take x years to prove him wrong, and people will have forgotten, by then.

[mistermack]

Random pattern, yes... but we've been having far too many outliers of late, the span has changed and the average is no longer the norm.

The Jet stream is very hard to predict. Otherwise, the weather forecasts would be accurate for much longer than four or five days.
Even with gigantic computing power, they can't predict the Jet Stream.
That's what's driving our weather. And that's why the weather can't be predicted either.

Outliers and span has always be prone to excesses.
1947, before I was born, or CO2 started to increase, they had horrendous floods in England.
If it happened today, they would all be saying ''global warming''.

The truth is, up till recently, people accepted that the climate and weather would vary. They didn't look for explanations for every shower.
That's why we THINK we are getting more extreme weather. It now gets reported from every corner of the globe, and some prick is always there, trying to make something of it.

[Tero]

As I suspected. You don't know what it means.

[Jason]

It doesn't mean much beyond 'the global average temperature will be 0.5 degrees higher in year present+x'. You can graph any function between 0 and x so long as y is 0.5 higher at x than at 0.

[Tero]

Well, 0.5 degrees C does have some meaning. In hot climates, it means almost nothing to humans. Further north it will have an effect in winter, especially.

But we heat and cool our buildings. For plants and animals, it's a major impact. Beyond a discussion forum. Read a book if you want to know.

[mistermack]

Well, 0.5 degrees C does have some meaning. In hot climates, it means almost nothing to humans. Further north it will have an effect in winter, especially.

But we heat and cool our buildings. For plants and animals, it's a major impact. Beyond a discussion forum. Read a book if you want to know.

All the reading I've done, shows that global temperatures constantly rise and fall, and very rarely stay level for long.
We've had half a degree since CO2 started it's latest rise.
It's fuck all.

[macdoc]

SHows the usual ignorance....it's actually .8 C so a bit more than 1 degree F but it's triple that in the north

Canada's winters are 3.6 C warmer on average than 50 years ago so we now have pine beetles that can over winter and are destroying the boreal forest...

so yes it does have fucking consequences.