Global Climate Change Science News

[Tero]

Bit old, but since there are people her who do not read actual papers, here is one
http://articles.adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi- ... etype=.pdf

sorry if you can't read the graphs, or do not understand graphs in general. Note: the warming is not calculated with these simulations, only the breakdown of the causes.

[Tero]

I was thinking about MM and climate models..such as..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_climate_model
is the problem perhaps that they use MATH for the models? As you may know, MATH is not actually government controlled. You have to publish the method. Climate skeptics have full access to this MATH, if not data, so they can shoot down the MODELS if they wish. But most of thm just misunderstand the model.

[Clinton Huxley]

I was thinking about MM and climate models..such as..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_climate_model
is the problem perhaps that they use MATH for the models? As you may know, MATH is not actually government controlled. You have to publish the method. Climate skeptics have full access to this MATH, if not data, so they can shoot down the MODELS if they wish. But most of thm just misunderstand the model.

Don't you know that the mathematicians are also in on the conspiracy?

[Tero]

It's not Milankovitch cycles

which do very little in a 200 year period

[Tero]

It's not suns spots


and it's not volcanoes


The last from the article with the pdf link earlier

[macdoc]

What ocean heating reveals about global warming
Classé dans:

— stefan @ 25 septembre 2013

The heat content of the oceans is growing and growing. That means that the greenhouse effect has not taken a pause and the cold sun is not noticeably slowing global warming.

The amount of heat stored in the oceans is one of the most important diagnostics for global warming, because about 90% of the additional heat is stored there (you can read more about this in the last IPCC report from 2007). The atmosphere stores only about 2% because of its small heat capacity. The surface (including the continental ice masses) can only absorb heat slowly because it is a poor heat conductor. Thus, heat absorbed by the oceans accounts for almost all of the planet’s radiative imbalance.

If the oceans are warming up, this implies that the Earth must absorb more solar energy than it emits longwave radiation into space. This is the only possible heat source. That’s simply the first law of thermodynamics, conservation of energy. This conservation law is why physicists are so interested in looking at the energy balance of anything. Because we understand the energy balance of our Earth, we also know that global warming is caused by greenhouse gases – which have caused the largest imbalance in the radiative energy budget over the last century.

If the greenhouse effect (that checks the exit of longwave radiation from Earth into space) or the amount of absorbed sunlight diminished, one would see a slowing in the heat uptake of the oceans. The measurements show that this is not the case.

The increase in the amount of heat in the oceans amounts to 17 x 1022 Joules over the last 30 years. That is so much energy it is equivalent to exploding a Hiroshima bomb every second in the ocean for thirty years.

The data in the graphs comes from the World Ocean Database. Wikipedia has a fine overview of this database. The data set includes nine million measured temperature profiles from all of the world’s oceans. One of my personal heroes, the oceanographer Syd Levitus, has dedicated much of his life to making these oceanographic data freely available to everyone. During the Cold war that even landed him in a Russian jail for espionage for a while, as he was visiting Russia on his quest for oceanographic data (he once told me of that adventure over breakfast in a Beijing hotel).

continues....
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar ... more-15717

[macdoc]

New Scientist on the IPCC report

http://www.newscientist.com/special/ipcc-2013

[klr]

Health of oceans 'declining fast'

The health of the world’s oceans is deteriorating even faster than had previously been thought, a report says.

A review from the International Programme on the State of the Ocean (IPSO), warns that the oceans are facing multiple threats.

They are being heated by climate change, turned slowly less alkaline by absorbing CO2, and suffering from overfishing and pollution.

The report warns that dead zones formed by fertiliser run-off are a problem.

It says conditions are ripe for the sort of mass extinction event that has afflicted the oceans in the past.

It says: “We have been taking the ocean for granted. It has been shielding us from the worst effects of accelerating climate change by absorbing excess CO2 from the atmosphere.

“Whilst terrestrial temperature increases may be experiencing a pause, the ocean continues to warm regardless. For the most part, however, the public and policymakers are failing to recognise - or choosing to ignore - the severity of the situation.”

It says the cocktail of threats facing the ocean is more powerful than the individual problems themselves.

Coral reefs, for instance, are suffering from the higher temperatures and the effects of acidification whilst also being weakened by bad fishing practices, pollution, siltation and toxic algal blooms.

...

continued: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24369244

[macdoc]

and that... is that.....well done..

L.A. Times cuts off climate-change deniers - CBS News

fuckheads the lot....one less soapbox to play stupid on :rolleyes:

[Tyrannical]

and that... is that.....well done..

L.A. Times cuts off climate-change deniers - CBS News

fuckheads the lot....one less soapbox to play stupid on :rolleyes:

Last month, a panel of the world's top scientists presented its latest review of the data on climate change. The analysis concluded with 95 percent certainty -- the gold standard in science -- that climate change is manmade

I'm surprised news papers are so gullible, to get a made up opinionated value of 95% certainty confused with something that had a scientific basis in facts. They can't prove their theory is 95% certain anymore than they could disprove calls their theory is only 10% certain.

[cronus]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/wor ... -1.2053488

World temperatures go off the chart by 2047, study says

Starting in about a decade, Kingston, Jamaica, will probably be off-the-charts hot — permanently. Other places will soon follow. Singapore in 2028. Mexico City in 2031. Cairo in 2036. Phoenix and Honolulu in 2043.
And eventually the whole world in 2047.

A new study on global warming pinpoints the probable dates for when cities and ecosystems around the world will regularly experience hotter environments the likes of which they have never seen before.

Rising temperatures

And for dozens of cities, mostly in the tropics, those dates are a generation or less away.
"This paper is both innovative and sobering," said Oregon State University professor Jane Lubchenco, former head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, who was not involved in the study.

To arrive at their projections, the researchers used weather observations, computer models and other data to calculate the point at which every year from then on will be warmer than the hottest year ever recorded over the last 150 years.

For example, the world as a whole had its hottest year on record in 2005. The new study, published Wednesday in the journal Nature, says that by the year 2047, every year that follows will probably be hotter than that record-setting scorcher.

Eventually, the coldest year in a particular city or region will be hotter than the hottest year in its past.
Study author Camilo Mora and his colleagues said they hope this new way of looking at climate change will spur governments to do something before it is too late.

"Now is the time to act," said another study co-author, Ryan Longman.
Environment Canada said in a statement that it is familiar with the study, "which is based on credible science using an ensemble of climate models, including Canada's earth system model."

The statement said that the federal government has worked to "systematically address all major sources of emissions," and pointed to restrictions on coal and planned greenhouse gas reductions in vehicles.

Many possible outcomes

Mora, a biological geographer at the University of Hawaii, and colleagues ran simulations from 39 different computer models and looked at hundreds of thousands of species, maps and data points to ask when places will have "an environment like we had never seen before."

The 2047 date for the whole world is based on continually increasing emissions of greenhouse gases from the burning of coal, oil and natural gases. If the world manages to reduce its emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases, that would be pushed to as late as 2069, according to Mora.
But for now, Mora said, the world is rushing toward the 2047 date.

"One can think of this year as a kind of threshold into a hot new world from which one never goes back," said Carnegie Institution climate scientist Chris Field, who was not part of the study. "This is really dramatic."

Mora forecasts that the unprecedented heat starts in 2020 with Manokwari, Indonesia. Then Kingston, Jamaica. Within the next two decades, 59 cities will be living in what is essentially a new climate, including Singapore, Havana, Kuala Lumpur and Mexico City.
By 2043, 147 cities — more than half of those studied — will have shifted to a hotter temperature regime that is beyond historical records.

(continued)

[macdoc]

Unprecedented warming uncovered in Pacific depths

* 18:30 31 October 2013 by Michael Marshall
* For similar stories, visit the Climate Change Topic Guide

The effects of climate change are being felt almost a kilometre down in the biggest ocean on Earth.

A new record of water temperatures shows how the Pacific has warmed and cooled since the last ice age. It shows that the ocean has warmed 15 times faster in the last 60 years than at any time in the previous 10,000.

The fact that the heat of global warming is penetrating deep into the oceans is yet more evidence that we are dramatically warming the planet, says Yair Rosenthal of Rutgers University in New Brunswick, New Jersey, who led the study.
Time capsules

To take the temperature of the ancient Pacific, Rosenthal's team turned to the preserved remains of single-celled organisms called foraminifera.

Each "foram" builds a hard shell around itself, and the amount of magnesium in the shell varies depending on the temperature of the surrounding water. By measuring the amount of the mineral in the shells, it is possible to work out the temperature of the water in which the forams lived.

Rosenthal examined preserved forams found in sediments from the seas around Indonesia. These seas receive water from the north and south Pacific, so their temperature should reflect the average across the entire Pacific. He focused on three species, which lived at different depths, giving him a measure of temperature changes between 500 and 900 metres deep.
Heat spike

Rosenthal found that after a period of warming following the end of the last ice age, the Pacific steadily cooled by 2.1 °C over the next 9000 years. Temperatures then shot up at an unprecedented rate: increasing by 0.25 °C in 200 years. The timing of the uptick reflects the onset of the industrial revolution.

Similar temperature trends are known to have happened over land – encapsulated in the famous hockey stick graph.

It takes more energy to heat water by 1°C than it does to heat the same mass of air, so the oceans act as a gigantic heat sink that shields us from the effects of global warming.

"If we didn't have the ocean, we would be much warmer", says Rosenthal.

Journal reference: Science, DOI: 10.1126/science.1240837

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn2 ... epths.html

[cronus]

http://www.newsdaily.com/article/9cb5e6 ... rer-future

Warming report sees violent, sicker, poorer future

International panel's leaked report predicts more illness, war, disease with global warming

WASHINGTON (AP) — Starvation, poverty, flooding, heat waves, droughts, war and disease already lead to human tragedies. They're likely to worsen as the world warms from man-made climate change, a leaked draft of an international scientific report forecasts.

The Nobel Peace Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will issue a report next March on how global warming is already affecting the way people live and what will happen in the future, including a worldwide drop in income. A leaked copy of a draft of the summary of the report appeared online Friday on a climate skeptic's website. Governments will spend the next few months making comments about the draft.

"We've seen a lot of impacts and they've had consequences," Carnegie Institution climate scientist Chris Field, who heads the report, told The Associated Press on Saturday. "And we will see more in the future."

Cities, where most of the world now lives, have the highest vulnerability, as do the globe's poorest people.

"Throughout the 21st century, climate change impacts will slow down economic growth and poverty reduction, further erode food security and trigger new poverty traps, the latter particularly in urban areas and emerging hotspots of hunger," the report says. "Climate change will exacerbate poverty in low- and lower-middle income countries and create new poverty pockets in upper-middle to high-income countries with increasing inequality."

(continued)

[cronus]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-24950487

Brazil says Amazon deforestation rose 28% in a year

Brazil says the rate of deforestation in the Amazon increased by 28% between August 2012 and last July, after years of decline.

The government is working to reverse this "crime", Environment Minister Izabella Teixeira said.

Activists have blamed the increase in destruction on a controversial reform to Brazil's forest protection law.

Last year Brazil reported the lowest rate of deforestation in the Amazon since monitoring began.

The provisional statistics from August 2012 to last July suggest that the area suffering deforestation was 5,843 sq km (2,255 sq miles), compared to 4,571 sq km (1,765 sq miles) in the previous 12 months.

The 28% rise interrupts a period of declining deforestation which began in 2009. However, it still remains the second lowest annual figure for forest loss in absolute terms.

The worst year on record was 2004, when 27,000 sq km of forest was destroyed.

Monthly data from several scientific institutions had suggested the deforestation rate might be on the rise.

Environmentalists say the controversial reform of the forest protection law in 2012 is to blame for the upwards trend in Brazil.

The changes reduced protected areas in farms and declared an amnesty for areas destroyed before 2008.

(continued, no need to worry about this sucker burning down - it'll all be morped into IKEA furniture before that happens. Makes you sit up and think don't it?)

[Tero]

IKEA makes stuff out of cheap scots pine. They have a plant in Russia for that purpose.