Global Climate Change Science News

[macdoc]

And whose fusion reactor would it be then?

the one that is 30 years away

[Hermit]

And whose fusion reactor would it be then?

the one that is 30 years away

Oh! A submarine fusion reactor then.

[macdoc]

Hehe - actually they are at work on floating fusion reactors....makes sense...no cooling or earthquake issues and ideal for de-salination which Califiornia certainly would be in line for.


•••

The last bastions are crumbling....denial is so yesterday.

Rep. Grimm (R-NY) Abandons Skepticism, Embraces Science On Showtime Climate Series
BY JOE ROMM ON APRIL 25, 2014 AT 12:45 PM

CHRIS HAYES: Last time you and I spoke, you said the jury was still out on climate science. Do you still feel that way?

MICHAEL GRIMM: After speaking with Bob Inglis, it made me do some of my own research, you know, I looked at some of the stuff that he sent over, my staff looked at. But the mass majority of respected scientists say that it’s conclusive, the evidence is clear. So I don’t think the jury is out.

CHRIS HAYES: The basic story of – we’re putting carbon in the atmosphere, the planet’s getting warmer, that’s gonna make the sea levels rise -like, the basic story of that you pretty much agree with, right?

MICHAEL GRIMM: Sure, I mean there’s no question that, um, you know, the oceans have risen, right? And the climate change part is, is a real part of it. The problem that we’re gonna have right now- there’s no oxygen left in the room in Washington for another big debate, that’s the reality….

It is a remarkable on-air conversion, though Grimm still believes this country will not act because “I don’t think that humans in America, Americans, have the will to do it.” Hayes calls that “a terribly depressing statement.”

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/0 ... e-science/

•••

El Nino looming too...

Does El Niño Plus Global Warming Equal Global Temperature Records In 2014 And 2015?
BY JOE ROMM APRIL 22, 2014 AT 5:26 PM UPDATED: APRIL 22, 2014 AT 5:28 PM
facebook icon 2,556Share This twitter icon 306Tweet This google plus icon email icon "Does El Niño Plus Global Warming Equal Global Temperature Records In 2014 And 2015?" Share: facebook icon twitter icon google plus icon Share on email
An El Niño appears increasingly likely this year, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). If it starts relatively quickly, then 2014 could well be the hottest year on record, but if it is a strong El Niño, as many currently expect, then 2015 would likely break all previous global records.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/0 ... re-record/

[cronus]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/05/0 ... 63660.html

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-27296417

Burn or drown. Your call.

[macdoc]

Warming 'increasingly disruptive' across US - report
Matt McGrath
By Matt McGrath
Environment correspondent, BBC News


Wildfires in Colorado
Climate change is increasing the vulnerability of forests to wildfires

Climate change is having significant financial, ecological and human health impacts across the US, according to a new report.

The third National Climate Assessment, released by the White House, says the number and strength of extreme weather events have increased over the past 50 years.

Infrastructure is being damaged by sea level rise, downpours and extreme heat.

The report says these impacts are likely to worsen in the coming decades.

Coming hot on the heels of the trio of reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the assessment re-iterates the finding that climate change is real, and "driven primarily by human activity".
If we don't slam the brakes on the carbon pollution driving climate change, we're dooming ourselves and our children”
Frances Beinecke
Natural Resources Defense Council

A key element driving this conclusion is the observed evidence on extreme weather events such as heavy downpours of rain.

Between 1958 and 2012, the amount of precipitation falling in very heavy events increased by 71% in New England and the north east, while in the drier West it went up by just 5%.

"There is no equivocation," said lead author Prof Gary Yohe from Wesleyan University.

"It is fundamentally the pace of observations of extreme weather that makes it clear it is not natural variability."

The report suggests that it is not just wet events that are becoming more common. The human influence on climate has "roughly doubled the probability of extreme heat events", it says.

The authors point to the record-breaking summer temperatures in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011, where even during the night the mercury continued to soar.

Infographic
"There have been episodes of temperatures in urban areas that are amplified by the heat island effect, where it just never recovers over the night and that dramatically affects humans," said Prof Yohe.

"It's impossible for the night to cool the earth."

The report also highlights the well-documented threats from wildfires in the West and how warming could, ultimately, cut agricultural productivity.


Impacts from sea to shining sea

North East - heat waves, more extreme precipitation, coastal flooding
Mid West - Longer growing seasons, increased crop yields, heat waves, droughts
South West - drought, wildfires, water stress
Alaska - Shrinking glaciers, damage to roads and ecosystems
As well as food security, the report warns that millions of people and properties are at risk from rising seas. Five million people live in areas that are 1.2 metres above the local high-tide level.

The increasing acidification of the oceans, blamed on global warming, is having financial impacts right now, said another lead author, Dr Drew Harvell from Cornell University.

She said that shellfish hatcheries were being particularly affected in the Pacific north west.

"They are being very heavily hit," she said.

"Everything they do now requires them to monitor pH, to have sensors in their hatcheries. Some of the hatcheries have moved out of the north west because of the corrosiveness of the waters, this is a very now impact with economic consequences."

The assessment warns that current efforts to implement emissions cuts and to adapt to changes are "insufficient to avoid increasingly negative social, environmental, and economic consequences".

The report's authors believe that it provides crucial ammunition for President Obama as he looks to regulate US emissions.

Taxi cabs, Hurricane Sandy
Millions are thought to be at risk from flooding
Last year, the President unveiled his Climate Action Plan that sets new rules on carbon emissions from power plants. However, the scientists are pessimistic that the assessment will have much of an impact in Congress.

"One of the few places in the US where it looks like climate change is a 50-50 proposition is in the Congressional record," said Prof Yohe.

"That is problematic."

Other scientists involved in the report believed that the deadlock in Washington didn't reflect the breadth of US attitudes towards climate change.

Businesses, traders and people from all walks of life were seeing the impacts and wanted more information.

"It is frustrating - but I am reasonably optimistic," said Dr David Wolfe, another lead author.

"When I move out of the Beltway, I am seeing different things, even among the farmer audience. They are all about making a profit, so they are interested in protecting what they've got."

Campaigners have endorsed the report and are calling for swift action.

"Our leading scientists send a stark message: Climate change is already seriously disrupting our lives, hurting our health and damaging our economy," said Frances Beinecke, president of the Natural Resources Defense Council.

"If we don't slam the brakes on the carbon pollution driving climate change, we're dooming ourselves and our children to more intense heat waves, destructive floods and storms, and surging sea levels."

[macdoc]

take your pick, fire or flood .....both are increasing in frequency as extreme weather becomes the norm.

Here is a video of Arnold Swarzenegger showing that the world IS ON FIRE! He states in the video that there is no fire season and that the fires now burn year round. The head firefighter also acknowledges the changes he has seen.

http://yearsoflivingdangerously.com/story/fire-line/ Watch the spotlight video

Here is more of Arnold Swartenegger on climate change. Click a few links to get to the video. Go to "Behind the Scenes" and click on the video on the left.

http://yearsoflivingdangerously.com/...chwarzenegger/

A quote from the website

"During the time I was in office we have seen the beginning of the elimination of the fire season completely and are having fires all year round. I think we have seen the major problem of the destruction of land and property and lives that is a major problem because we don’t have the resources for that many fires and we don’t have the resources and the manpower to fight those fires throughout the year.

Arnold Schwarzenegger"

Here is a team of Hot Shots that were killed in a fire. It's not funny at all.
http://www.cnn.com/interactive/2013/07/us/yarnell-fire/

and in Canada...

Canadian Forest Service Publications

Risk assessment of the threat of mountain pine beetle to Canada's boreal and eastern pine forests. 2014. Nealis, V.G.; Cooke, B.J. Canadian Council of Forest Ministers, Ottawa, Ontario. 27 p.

Plain Language Summary
Rapid changes in the distribution of the mountain pine beetle and the significant investments made by forest managers in response resulted in a request for a reassessment of the threat by the Canadian Council of Forest Ministers via the National Forest Pest Strategy.

This report summarizes the findings of the reassessment in 2010. Many of the predictions made in an initial assessment in 2007 have come true. The beetle continues to expand both its geographic and host range. It is persisting in areas once thought to be climatically unsuitable and is finding and attacking even sparse clusters of trees. It is now confirmed to be successfully reproducing in jack pine, a transcontinental pine species of the boreal forest. In addition to the potential impacts to forestry, an increase in tree mortality could aggravate the already high fire risk characteristic of pine forest types.

Harpo hasn't muzzled that one yet.....

and despite cooler temps in North America

Global Summary Information - March 2014
March 2014 global temperature fourth highest on record

Year-to-date seventh warmest on record

Arctic sea ice fifth lowest maximum extent

Many areas of the world experienced much-warmer-than-average monthly temperatures, including most of Europe, much of Asia, northern South America, most of the Indian Ocean, part of the eastern North Atlantic, a large swath of the South Atlantic, and large sections of the western and northeastern Pacific Ocean.

Record warmth occurred in parts of eastern and northern Europe, sections of the eastern Atlantic Ocean, and parts of the equatorial and northeastern Pacific Ocean. Most of eastern Canada, the northeastern U.S., north central Argentina, part of the central North Atlantic Ocean, and the ocean waters off the southern tip of South America were notably cooler than average. Some areas around the Great Lakes and New England in North America were record cold for March.

Careful....those oil sands might be toxic

[cronus]

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg2 ... 2r1IChdXVM

World is unprepared for major El Niño later this year

Wild weather is coming in 2014, with floods, storms and droughts expected around the Pacific, but little is being done to protect the people on the front line

THE weather is preparing to go wild, and will wreak havoc and death around the globe later this year. An El Niño, a splurge of warm water in the Pacific Ocean, is coming. It will unleash floods in the Americas, while South-East Asia and Australia face drought. Yet little is being done to address these consequences.

"The tropical climate system is primed for a big El Niño," says Axel Timmermann of the University of Hawaii in Honolulu (see diagram).

An El Niño begins when warm water near Indonesia spreads eastwards and rises to the surface of the Pacific. The warm water carries rain with it, so El Niño takes rain from Asia and Australia and dumps it on the Americas (see "Rising waters").

The effects can be deadly. A big El Niño in 1997-98 killed 20,000 people and caused almost $97 billion of damage.

Meteorologists contacted by New Scientist all expect an El Niño at the end of this year. And it looks like a big one, says Wenju Cai of CSIRO, Australia's national research agency, in Melbourne. The more heat in the Pacific, the bigger the El Niño, and right now, 150 metres below the surface, a ball of warm water is crossing that ocean. "It's huge," says Cai.

Yet official forecasts remain cautious. As recently as 5 May, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration only said the odds of an El Niño would exceed 50 per cent this year.

Most El Niño researchers say forecasters are being too conservative. "One thing I hear over and over again is 'we do not want to create a panic'," says Timmermann. There is a reason: forecasting a big El Niño would cause a spike in food prices. "But it may be better to have this reaction at an early stage, when farmers can still adapt, rather than later."

(continued)

[macdoc]

El Niño forecasters must not repeat mistakes of 1997

08 May 2014

The effects of the huge El Niño of the 1990s were all the worse because cautious forecasts didn’t allow people to prepare. It shouldn’t happen again

IN JANUARY, climate researchers warned that extreme El Niño events are likely to become more common as the planet warms. It now seems that the world will have a chance to rehearse for the future as early as the end of this year. A major El Niño is massing in the Pacific Ocean and is likely to cause cyclones, tornadoes, droughts, floods and sea level changes across the world (see "World is unprepared for major El Niño later this year").

Many leading scientists say the approaching El Niño looks similar in magnitude to the huge one that started in 1997 and went on to kill tens of thousands of people and cause tens of billions of dollars of damage. But you won't hear that sort of warning from official forecasters. They agree that an El Niño is likely, but are saying little about its potential strength.

Why is that? One of the key reasons for the devastation of 1997 was excess caution among forecasters. A major UN study published in 2000 revealed that for forecasters, an incorrect prediction is more embarrassing than no prediction at all. We may be seeing the same failings today.

There is still a chance that the threat will dissipate. But we won't know for sure until it is too late to prepare properly. If governments and emergency services are to be given enough time, they need full and frank forecasts now.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg2 ... 2vO9V5mv3w

[macdoc]

This is not a discussion thread - either post up some science or STFU.

There is a denier thread for your crap.

"Global Warming" has fizzled,

Global warming includes the ocean
care to explain...this??



or this?



.you won't because can't - you just spew right wing Faux shite without a shred validity....the US right wing is the laughing stock of the planet and you doin' this like some pathetic puppy hoping acceptance, ludicrous hardly covers it.

We fucked up the climate and now we both have to cope and blunt making it worse.

Grow up and take some fucking responsibility instead of denying the fucking obvious.

It's getting warmer
We're responsible.
There ARE consequences....NOW! and one of those is extreme weather events.

Even the head of Exxon has moved on - you are stuck in some cold war fantasy of your own febrile manufacture.

Now go play in the conspiracy thread and stay out of the Climate Science News thread unless you actually have some climate science to post without puerile commentary.

[FBM]

Derails removed and can be found here: http://188.226.174.187/forum/viewtopic.php?f=25&t=47707

[macdoc]

ouch

Huge Antarctic ice sheet collapsing
Predictions of sea level rise will need to be adjusted upward
The Associated Press Posted: May 12, 2014 1:40 PM ET Last Updated: May 12, 2014 3:23 PM ET

The huge West Antarctic ice sheet is starting a glacially slow collapse in an unstoppable way, two new studies show. Alarmed scientists say that means even more sea level rise than they figured.
The worrisome outcomes won't be seen soon. Scientists are talking hundreds of years, but over that time the melt that has started could eventually add 1.2 to 3.6 metres to current sea levels.

A NASA study looking at 40 years of ground, airplane and satellite data of what researchers call "the weak underbelly of West Antarctica" shows the melt is happening faster than scientists had predicted, crossing a critical threshold that has begun a domino-like process.
"It does seem to be happening quickly," said University of Washington glaciologist Ian Joughin, lead author of one study. "We really are witnessing the beginning stages."

Global warming and ozone hole
It's likely because of man-made global warming and the ozone hole which have changed the Antarctic winds and warmed the water that eats away at the feet of the ice, researchers said at a NASA news conference Monday.
Glaciers in West Antarctica’s Amundsen Sea Embayment have “passed the point of no return” according to new research.

"The system is in sort of a chain reaction that is unstoppable," said NASA glaciologist Eric Rignot, chief author of the NASA study in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. "Every process in this reaction is feeding the next one."

more

http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/huge- ... -1.2639989

[macdoc]

The missing heat??? godzilla aka little boy lurks



Less climb in the atmosphere....more in the ocean



and it's about to re-emerge.

Trouble ahead? A pool of warm water (in red) is moving east in the tropical Pacific Ocean. If it reaches the surface, it could trigger El Niño.

The little boy could soon be back. El Niño, a periodic warming in the waters of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, will probably emerge in the coming months, according to a forecast issued yesterday by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). If strong, the El Niño event could not only wreak havoc on weather around the world, but could also trigger a resumption of global warming that has been seemingly stalled for the last 15 years.

more
http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2014 ... oming-back

[macdoc]

You know we focus on Arctic ice cover which is guessimated to be 2500 cubic km at a minimum this year yet it only represents about 400 size large icebergs.

http://izismile.com/2012/12/13/largest_ ... ic_km.html

and only 4 times the loss of Greenland ice in 2012 alone.

Pine Island Glacier | robertscribbler
https://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/t ... d-glacier/
Apr 24, 2014 - In total, by 2008, about 90% of the world's glaciers were in retreat. ... Summer of 2012 saw Greenland mass loss hit 600 cubic kilometers

World wide loss - about 800 cubic km and unlike Greenland much of that will not be coming back in the winters as that's a net figure afaik.

The Arctic represents lots of icing but it's the cake we're losing. ( yeah yeah horrid pun )

What the above image shows is an ongoing loss of ice since 2002 with the rate of loss increasing steadily through the start of 2013. Average rates of loss in recent years have been on the order of 500 cubic kilometers per annum, with a massive loss of about 800 cubic kilometers occurring between 2012 and 2013.

What has been shown is that this rate of melt for land-bound ice at both poles is rapidly increasing. According to a statement from NASA in November of 2012, the current rate of polar melt from Greenland and Antarctica is now three times the rate of melt during the 1990s (NASA statement here).

http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/tag/total-warming/

Little wonder the need for re-evaluating sea level rise. Arctic cover is an interesting canary tho.
The same article has good visuals of the decline in the Arctic over time

Northern hemisphere sea ice is perhaps the most dramatic example of human caused warming in the form of ice melt. Sea ice volume has fallen by over 80% since 1980 with the pace of melt accelerating since 2000. The following graph provided by PIOMAS vividly shows this devastating decline.

[macdoc]

Expanding tropics...expanding cyclone band

By: Associated Press, Published on Wed May 14 2014
WASHINGTON—Tropical cyclones worldwide are moving out of the tropics and more toward the poles and larger population centres, likely owing to global warming, a surprising new study finds. Atlantic hurricanes, however, don’t follow this trend.
While other studies have looked at the strength and frequency of the storms, which are called hurricanes in North America and cyclones and typhoons elsewhere, this is the first study that looks at where they are geographically when they peak.
It found in the last 30 years, tropical cyclones, regardless of their size, are peaking 53 kilometres farther north each decade in the Northern Hemisphere and 61 kilometres farther south each decade in the Southern Hemisphere.

http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2014/ ... study.html

[Tero]

Continued discussion of tropical hot spot
http://www.climatedialogue.org/the-miss ... -hot-spot/
well, at least to a year ago