Biggest challenge to my denial of the supernatural yet

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Simple test. How many predictions did she make. How many were accurate. Is that number any different from random chance by a significant amount?

[TheGreatGatsby]

I rest my case. I was hoping for a rational refutation to the Vanga woman, which is what I got. Thank you all very much.

[TheGreatGatsby]

Simple test. How many predictions did she make. How many were accurate. Is that number any different from random chance by a significant amount?

While many allege that she 'did not like to talk about the future' she probably made tons of predictions, which is what she is known for.

A simple search will reveal the Kursk prediction to be the only supposed fulfilled prophecy to cite an actual quote from her.

[BrettA]

A simple search will reveal the Kursk prediction to be the only supposed fulfilled prophecy to cite an actual quote from her.

And as implied earlier, the emphasis should absolutely be on "supposed", given the conflict of city and submarine and if the submarine, being underwater can hardly be viewed with any type of validity as 'prophecy'.

[Xamonas Chegwé]

Simple test. How many predictions did she make. How many were accurate. Is that number any different from random chance by a significant amount?

While many allege that she 'did not like to talk about the future' she probably made tons of predictions, which is what she is known for.

A simple search will reveal the Kursk prediction to be the only supposed fulfilled prophecy to cite an actual quote from her.

It's hard to quantify the success of such predictions. Were she predicting coin-tosses, one would expect her to be accurate about 50% of the time and for her score to get closer to 50% the more predictions she made. However, with predictions of events, there is no way to determine the odds of coincidence occurring and test for correlation. Add the vagueness about exact dates and events and testing such prophecy scientifically is fruitless - which means that we fall back upon our own gut instincts - which is where the wishful thinking of would-be believers comes in.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

A simple search will reveal the Kursk prediction to be the only supposed fulfilled prophecy to cite an actual quote from her.

And as implied earlier, the emphasis should absolutely be on "supposed", given the conflict of city and submarine and if the submarine, being underwater can hardly be viewed with any type of validity as 'prophecy'.

Someone, somewhere, will do something, and it will affect something or someone in some fashion.

There, I iz profit.

[Pappa]

I rest my case. I was hoping for a rational refutation to the Vanga woman, which is what I got. Thank you all very much.

Several people already said what Zilla said, but in different terms.

[Eriku]

lol... the Goldilocks argument is stronger than those coincidences.

Btw, submarines often tend to be submerged in marine elements.

[Santa_Claus]

The really weird thing would be if none of her predictions couldn't be fitted around at least some later events.

[Eriku]

The really weird thing would be if none of her predictions couldn't be fitted around at least some later events.

Surely that's HIIIGHLY unlikely?

Proof of something being up with her, surely. A WITCH, A WITCH!

QUICKE! Fetch many a faggot, fore a fyre will need to be set.

Oh, she's already dead you say?

[FBM]

Do we have evidence, other than anecdotal, that this person ever said those things at the time she's reported to have? A lot of shit can be made ad hoc and retrofitted.

[Gawdzilla Sama]

Do we have evidence, other than anecdotal, that this person ever said those things at the time she's reported to have? A lot of shit can be made ad hoc and retrofitted.

So you think she's Jesus?

[Xamonas Chegwé]

Do we have evidence, other than anecdotal, that this person ever said those things at the time she's reported to have? A lot of shit can be made ad hoc and retrofitted.

So you think she's Jesus?

[Rob]

Wait a few days, if there is no nuclear war you will have your answer.

[Eriku]

Tbh if she's right about the nuclear holocaust it would mean that it wouldn't require a lifetime of irrational blind acceptance of old prophecies to committ to the stance...

I give you Eirik's Wager... Believe for a few days, be all prescient and shit... if it doesn't come to pass, change your name and move and resume being a stand-up skeptic.

WIN!