Biggest challenge to my denial of the supernatural yet

[TheGreatGatsby]

She also said that the whole world would be weeping over it, as they did with the submarine tragedy, so any non-tragic circumstances are ruled out (except if we see weeping as a metaphor for rain, which is a little far-fetched)

OK. Do you have the provenance of this prophecy? You say she was "little known". Are you even sure that she existed, that she is not just a clever hoax? Have you a complete list of her predictions? If so, are any others as accurate?

Do we even know that you are not trying to hoax us right now?

Little-known in the west, she is pretty big in Eastern Europe. Here's the Wikipedia article about her: en.wikipedia,org/wiki/Baba_Vanga
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_su ... ite_note-3
Here's the article about Kursk (with her quote in the introduction, along with an appropriate source).

I've been looking into the hoax possibility for a few days and have discovered that a few of her other alleged predictions city no sources anywhere and are represented by the same paraphrases on every website they are on.

This one, however, seems legit, and no, I'm not trying to hoax you.
Does your suggestion that it is a hoax mean that you think it is a serious piece of evidence if proven accurate? (just asking and again, I'd love for it to be a hoax)

[Feck]

Well she said that WWIII is going to start in Nov 2010 so unless there are some big bangs in Indonesia (possibly India ) in the next few days then she was wrong .

[Azathoth]

Kursk (Russian: Курск; Russian pronunciation: [ˈkursk]) is a city and the administrative center of Kursk Oblast, Russia, located at the confluence of the Kur, Tuskar, and Seym Rivers.

Kursk Oblast contributes to two major drainage areas—the Dnieper River and the Don River (78% and 22% respectively). There are 902 rivers and streams in the oblast, with their total length of approximately 8,000 kilometers (5,000 mi). Major rivers are the Seym and the Psyol.

Not a bad choice to put a two year flooding window on.

[TheGreatGatsby]

Well she said that WWIII is going to start in Nov 2010 so unless there are some big bangs in Indonesia (possibly India ) in the next few days then she was wrong .

Yes, that one was probably wrong (although some assassination attempts happened in a former Indonesian province in 2008. She predicted 4 assassinations and trouble in Indonesia for that year. What happened was not four assassinations, but something close to it)

[Xamonas Chegwé]

Does your suggestion that it is a hoax mean that you think it is a serious piece of evidence if proven accurate? (just asking and again, I'd love for it to be a hoax)

No. Not at all. An outright hoax is just one of many explanations for an accurate prophecy, others include: -

• Coincidence - make enough predictions and make them vague enough and every now and then, one will fit some event somewhere.
• Retro-fitted editing of the precise quote - once the new version has been quoted on enough websites, it becomes FACT.
• Creative mistranslation - the quote you provided was in English, I would assume that the original was in Roumanian - do you speak that language well enough to verify that the text is accurate?
• Chinese whispers - every time the prophecy and the events it appears to predict is quoted, it becomes a little more accurate, details are added, parts that make no sense in the context of the event are dropped, etc.
• Wishful thinking - there are a lot of people that want proof of prophecy for whatever reason - straw clutching is bound to occur whenever there is a vague coincidence.

And note that it doesn't have to be a single one of these - any combination can occur - there normally has to be at least a smidgen of coincidence before any of the others are brought into play.

[Rum]

Still, I have a feeling of unease about brushing the submarine coincidence aside just like that.

'Unease' is very easy to do. ..e.g. some time in the next 60 years you will die. I sense it will be in a November.

FFS - get a grip!

[TheGreatGatsby]

Does your suggestion that it is a hoax mean that you think it is a serious piece of evidence if proven accurate? (just asking and again, I'd love for it to be a hoax)

No. Not at all. An outright hoax is just one of many explanations for an accurate prophecy, others include: -

• Coincidence - make enough predictions and make them vague enough and every now and then, one will fit some event somewhere.
• Retro-fitted editing of the precise quote - once the new version has been quoted on enough websites, it becomes FACT.
• Creative mistranslation - the quote you provided was in English, I would assume that the original was in Roumanian - do you speak that language well enough to verify that the text is accurate?
• Chinese whispers - every time the prophecy and the events it appears to predict is quoted, it becomes a little more accurate, details are added, parts that make no sense in the context of the event are dropped, etc.
• Wishful thinking - there are a lot of people that want proof of prophecy for whatever reason - straw clutching is bound to occur whenever there is a vague coincidence.

And note that it doesn't have to be a single one of these - any combination can occur - there normally has to be at least a smidgen of coincidence before any of the others are brought into play.

I don't speak Romanian at all, although some native speakers reported remembering her prophecy when the Kursk thing happened. This might be retro-fitted memory editing after the explosion of the sub.
Wishful thinking on my part? Could be an attempt to be overly open-minded towards nonexistent phenomena. (I actually don't want it to be true)
The most likely explanation is probably a combination of ALL of the explanations you have given.

[Feck]

Well she said that WWIII is going to start in Nov 2010 so unless there are some big bangs in Indonesia (possibly India ) in the next few days then she was wrong .

Yes, that one was probably wrong (although some assassination attempts happened in a former Indonesian province in 2008. She predicted 4 assassinations and trouble in Indonesia for that year. What happened was not four assassinations, but something close to it)

but that's the point isn't it What she says WILL happen ? but unless there is a nuclear war by WEDNESDAY what are you worried about ?

so she got it right ,if you interpret a sub accident as a city , once but have you looked at all the stuff she got wrong ?

Mistaking A sub for a city depends on how she gets her prophecies, to confuse the two they would have to be by TXT .

[stripes4]

Did she say anything about where my son's school tie is? I can't find it

[Azathoth]

Did she say anything about where my son's school tie is? I can't find it

I prophesise that he has made it lost because he doesn't want to wear it. Do I win a prize?

[Pappa]

Did she say anything about where my son's school tie is? I can't find it

I prophesise that he has made it lost because he doesn't want to wear it. Do I win a prize?

Mine used to "break" all the time.

[stripes4]

Did she say anything about where my son's school tie is? I can't find it

I prophesise that he has made it lost because he doesn't want to wear it. Do I win a prize?

Mine used to "break" all the time.

Ah ... A tie breaker

[stripes4]

Did she say anything about where my son's school tie is? I can't find it

I prophesise that he has made it lost because he doesn't want to wear it. Do I win a prize?

He doesn't mind ties. It's coats he abhors

[BrettA]

I've been a nonbeliever for more than a year now, but recently I came a cross a very disturbing "coincidence" that has me thinking twice about the existence of supernatural forces... I'm not saying that this is definitive proof of supernatural powers, but I think it certainly needs quite a serious investigation.

I'd say that if sumptin' like this has you "thinking twice" and suggesting that "it certainly needs quite a serious investigation" (not to mention even stating that "I'm not saying that this is definitive proof of supernatural powers", go back to being a believer. (Not 'definitive' proof, huh?)

BTW, one of my dogs cried out your name, yesterday (your real name, but I'm not at liberty to discuss this any further).

[Trolldor]

She also said that the whole world would be weeping over it, as they did with the submarine tragedy, so any non-tragic circumstances are ruled out (except if we see weeping as a metaphor for rain, which is a little far-fetched)

Weeping? I didn't even know it happened.


Simple probability. How many predictions has she made and how many have come to be correct?

And why hasn't she been at all accurate?

People have been predicting World War III/The Apocalypse for some time now.