Russia invades Ukraine again?

[Tero]

Al Jazeera:
How might a second Trump presidency affect US-NATO relations?
Trump’s latest comments have sparked concerns within the alliance over the potential for disruptions within NATO if he returns to power.

“Any hint that allies will not defend themselves undermines all our security, including the United States, and exposes US soldiers and European soldiers to an increased risk,” NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said in a statement. The alliance has a combined 3.3 million military personnel.

Trump has had a rocky history with NATO for years, especially when he was president.

In 2019, Trump told reporters that he withheld nearly $400m in Congress-approved funding to Ukraine because other NATO members had not contributed their bit.

“I’d withhold again, and I’ll continue to withhold until such time as Europe and other nations contribute to Ukraine because they’re not doing it,” Trump said at the time. “Why is it only the United States putting up the money? Germany, France and other countries should put up money.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2024 ... on-defence

[Tero]

Russian fear

Hear me out. It will be totally different. The collapse of Russia will have far worse consequences than the outcome of a conventional, even long-term war.
Because attempting to return Russia to its 1991 borders will only lead to one outcome. To a global war with Western countries, utilising our entire strategic arsenal. In Kyiv, Berlin, London, and Washington. For all other beautiful historical sites, which have long been included in our nuclear triad's attack goals.

Will we have enough guts for this if a thousand-year-old country, our great homeland, is on the verge of extinction, and the sacrifices made by the Russian people over the centuries are in vain?

The answer is obvious."

https://news.yahoo.com/medvedev-threate ... 11038.html

[Tero]

Throughout the weekend, the Ukrainian delegation faced a hard enough job in trying to pitch the fierce urgency of their plight without tipping over into defeatism. One French official noted the dilemma: “A year ago ahead of the counter-offensive we had too much euphoria, and now perhaps too much depression.”

The French talk down suggestions that Ukrainian morale, supply lines and logistics are so stretched there may be a collapse this summer. The most likely future this year is stalemate, and a long war, Paris believes. But not everyone agrees and there are so many variables.

Ukrainian officials, for instance, were reluctant, unlike the Europeans, to speculate about the implications of a Trump victory, or how they could fight on with only European support. “There is no plan B,” the head of the Ukrainian president’s office, Andriy Yermak, insisted, at least in public.

The aim instead was to convince Europeans that Putin posed a threat not just to Ukraine but to their homes, too.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/ ... conference

[Tero]

We have a class for seniors on Ukraine. The professor has spent time there and speaks at least Russian.

It's not looking good. The US funds won't save them. They will run out of men.

[Tero]

Our former governor:

....Congress would act on aid for Ukraine. He also summed up what could be at risk if Trump decides to neuter the Western alliance.

“I was talking to a mother at my state fair, (and) she said, ‘Senator, I don’t want my 18-year-old fighting in Europe,’” Ricketts recounted. “I said, ‘That’s why we’re giving Ukraine weapons. So that that doesn’t happen because if Ukraine loses, and Putin invades one of our NATO allies, then your 18-year-old will be fighting in Europe.’”

https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/20/politics ... index.html

[JimC]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-27/ ... /103512326

Interesting article by a shrewd military analyst. An excerpt:

There is no mystery about Vladimir Putin's war aims. Explained in his speeches on February 21 and 24, 2022, and in many communiques since, Putin aims to keep the pressure on Ukraine and do everything possible to ensure that the world understands that Ukraine is not a sovereign nation. Putin also portrays Russia as the victim of a NATO plot and Ukrainian "Nazis". This is a narrative that he will continue to roll out this year.

While Putin is engaging in this misinformation campaign, he will exhort his military to seize as much Ukrainian territory as possible.

Russia is currently waging a wide-scale ground and air offensive across Ukraine. As the Russians continue to make small gains in taking Ukrainian territory, Putin will wish to convince the world that only Russia is capable of winning this war.

He has already convinced some in the US Congress of this. Putin appears to sense an opportunity for victory in 2024, although this is unlikely.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy will seek to preserve the sovereignty of Ukraine as he and his soldiers have done from the beginning of the war. To achieve this, he must minimise territorial losses.

More importantly, Zelenskyy will want to preserve and rebuild his army. He has had to make a tough choice; hold territory and lose more troops or surrender territory and preserve his military for future offensives. Strategically, the latter makes more sense. This choice appears to have shaped the recent decision to withdraw from Avdiivka.

Three other presidential priorities will shape the trajectory of the war in 2024.

The first is an emphasis on strategic strike operations to keep Black Sea trade open and conduct economic warfare against Russian energy export infrastructure.

Second, development of a reinvigorated diplomacy, strategic information and influence campaign to adapt to changes in Ukraine's circumstances and sources of support.

And finally, Zelenskyy will focus on the reconstitution of Ukraine's armed forces including the mobilisation law, training in NATO countries and rethinking tactics. Zelenskyy has already directed that planning commence for a new counteroffensive.

[Tero]

Putin has not been known to sign peace treaties. I think it will end up as cease fire. For years.

[JimC]

A bit like Korea, perhaps...

[Svartalf]

Let's hope vlad does not take to wearing kim hairpieces

[Tero]

[Sean Hayden]

The interview is ~22 minutes in.

Here is a link that should start at the right time: https://youtu.be/uhbDgWSUR44?t=1338

[aufbahrung]

Guys channelling Chamberlain, even looks like him...it's called the american dream, because u must be asleep



Our big problem is the Chinese guy trading with us, not playing with knives/nukes like the Russian guy looking our way? Way too small a threat...

[aufbahrung]

Talking about his gnu stash again and 'merica...one of these days it'll be like the Jericho mini series brought to life...

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pu ... 024-03-13/

Putin warns the West: Russia is ready for nuclear war
By Guy Faulconbridge and Lidia Kelly

....It did not immediately respond on Wednesday to a request for comment on Putin's remarks, but the White House has said in the past it has seen no sign that Russia is preparing to use nuclear weapons despite what it calls Putin's "nuclear saber-rattling".
Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior Ukrainian presidential official, told Reuters in a statement he viewed Putin's nuclear warning as propaganda designed to intimidate the West.

(continued)

[Tero]

There are bigger conventional bombs than smallest "tactical nuclear weapon." Without the fallout. Which could land in Russia.

[Strontium Dog]

The telltale sign that Russia is seriously planning to use nuclear weapons is when the US and Britain eliminates Russia's nuclear capability entirely before it can be deployed.