The Trump Pandemic

[Tero]

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They had not reported much on the recoveries. But in any case, some 5000 are supposedly isolating. Another untested 1000-2000 walking around. Population 2.9 million.

[Scot Dutchy]

Reliable? I doubt it.

[Tero]

I think people are having a hard time socially distancing even outdoors. Previously when we tried to stay home and avoided crowds, that was easy. Now that people started doing some things normally and some sort of "activity" appears, they throw themselves into it fully, disregarding any virus.

[JimC]

Reliable? I doubt it.

There's a continuum, Scot, from "100% perfect data" to "data so unreliable and corrupted that it should be totally ignored"

I don't think that Covid-19 data fits either extreme. In most first world countries, I am pretty sure that we could say "reliable enough to show important trends" even if, as many analysts think, there are probably many more cases, and possibly more deaths that are reported.

[NineBerry]

With about 200,000 new cases yesterday worldwide, there was 2.5 new cases every second. So, there was a new case on average every 400ms. Indeed not very reliable numbers if they are already outdated within the second.

[Sean Hayden]

On unreported deaths, I keep hearing clotting mentioned with the virus. What have you guys heard about that?

[Sean Hayden]

--and does CBD help?

[JimC]

On unreported deaths, I keep hearing clotting mentioned with the virus. What have you guys heard about that?

Yes, it is now known to be definitely one of the potential symptoms, associated with a fair proportion of severe cases. Now that they are aware of the possibility, blood thinning agents are often used. This virus seems to have more complicated effects than purely respiratory.

[L'Emmerdeur]

Yep.

'New Evidence Suggests COVID-19 May Actually Be a Blood Vessel Disease'

While early on COVID-19 was branded as a respiratory illness, its wide array of symptoms — from the toes to the brain — baffled experts. According to experts interviewed in an Elemental article, it’s unprecedented that a respiratory illness could migrate outside the lungs. But new research suggests COVID-19 may actually be a blood vessel disease, which would explain all of the virus’ symptoms.

To date, more than 6 million people around the world have a confirmed case of COVID-19. The most common symptoms are still a fever, cough and difficultly breathing. But COVID-19 causes other symptoms, like digestive issues, blood clots, heart attacks, stroke, brain swelling and skin issues. There could be an explanation that takes all of these into account:

COVID-19 may be a “vasculotropic virus,” or a virus that affects the blood vessels Specifically, the coronavirus may target endothelial cells that line your blood vessels and help protect your heart, prevent clotting and keep blood flowing smoothly This could also explain why people with high blood pressure, diabetes and heart disease are at higher risk of COVID-19, because all of these conditions already impact endothelial cells.

[Scot Dutchy]

Reliable? I doubt it.

There's a continuum, Scot, from "100% perfect data" to "data so unreliable and corrupted that it should be totally ignored"

I don't think that Covid-19 data fits either extreme. In most first world countries, I am pretty sure that we could say "reliable enough to show important trends" even if, as many analysts think, there are probably many more cases, and possibly more deaths that are reported.

Or the other way round Jim. Would you trust South American or African data? Have they done a PM on every body and determined the cause of death? Those countries dont even have a health system. It is often political in order to obtain aid to fill those leaders coffers. That is the message from my late girlfriend's niece trying to run a hospital in southern Africa. They never see aid money. Corruption happens on huge scale and dont forget it.
Our friends working in Sint Maarten on behalf of the Dutch government, trying to reorganise the airport there are meeting the same wall. Unless you are willing to grease palms nothing happens. They becoming so frustrated.

[JimC]

Reliable? I doubt it.

There's a continuum, Scot, from "100% perfect data" to "data so unreliable and corrupted that it should be totally ignored"

I don't think that Covid-19 data fits either extreme. In most first world countries, I am pretty sure that we could say "reliable enough to show important trends" even if, as many analysts think, there are probably many more cases, and possibly more deaths that are reported.

Or the other way round Jim. Would you trust South American or African data? Have they done a PM on every body and determined the cause of death? Those countries dont even have a health system. It is often political in order to obtain aid to fill those leaders coffers. That is the message from my late girlfriend's niece trying to run a hospital in southern Africa. They never see aid money. Corruption happens on huge scale and dont forget it.
Our friends working in Sint Maarten on behalf of the Dutch government, trying to reorganise the airport there are meeting the same wall. Unless you are willing to grease palms nothing happens. They becoming so frustrated.

For a start, I did say "first world countries", which is simply implying places with a reasonably developed health care system with associated data gathering. Secondly, in countries with more disorganised health systems (because of poverty, in the main), most analysts would indeed assume that many deaths have not been medically investigated, and may be the result of Covid-19. This does not necessarily involve political corruption (although it obviously could be an additional factor), as simple lack of resources and an untrained bureaucracy are enough reasons. Almost certainly, this would mean a major underestimation of both deaths and cases in such places. So, our (somewhat) unreliable data the world over is, if anything, downplaying the real severity of the crisis.

In some ways, the current spike of cases in my home state of Victoria is a good example. The state government has made some mistakes, and is suffering some reduction in political support as a result, but the system is still delivering the bad news statistics. There is absolutely no chance that they would inflate such figures, and indeed they have indicated that their (much increased) testing regime may not be showing the full extent of community transmission...

[Scot Dutchy]

I noticed you did but would you include the USA with the first world countries with the present political corruption going on there. Looking at Nine's post with figures like that being bantered around. You cant ignore the political angle on the figures with governments and local authorities openly admitting their mistakes. Brazil is claiming almost 2 million cases when has not got a clue how many people live in the country. A country Kyrgyzstan (where that is?) clams to have more cases than Australia. Sorry but they look about as realistic as the number of Lotto winners.

[JimC]

I noticed you did but would you include the USA with the first world countries with the present political corruption going on there. Looking at Nine's post with figures like that being bantered around. You cant ignore the political angle on the figures with governments and local authorities openly admitting their mistakes. Brazil is claiming almost 2 million cases when has not got a clue how many people live in the country. A country Kyrgyzstan (where that is?) clams to have more cases than Australia. Sorry but they look about as realistic as the number of Lotto winners.

You seem to be implying that the real numbers are less than those stated. Every report I've read suggests the opposite; actual numbers are higher. Do you think Bolsonaro in Brazil is going to artificially inflate the numbers of something he dismisses as of minor importance? Are you aware of a variety of studies comparing death rates from all sources now from similar periods last year in many jurisdictions, with the result in most cases being many more deaths than reported Covid deaths, implying under-reporting?

Basically it is true that the reliability of Covid data is variable, but that, in the main, it under-reports the impact...

[L'Emmerdeur]

Well, after all, they've had a rough decade or so, financially ...

'After lobbying, Catholic Church won $1.4B in virus aid'

The U.S. Roman Catholic Church used a special and unprecedented exemption from federal rules to amass at least $1.4 billion in taxpayer-backed coronavirus aid, with many millions going to dioceses that have paid huge settlements or sought bankruptcy protection because of clergy sexual abuse cover-ups.

The church’s haul may have reached -- or even exceeded -- $3.5 billion, making a global religious institution with more than a billion followers among the biggest winners in the U.S. government’s pandemic relief efforts, an Associated Press analysis of federal data released this week found.

Houses of worship and faith-based organizations that promote religious beliefs aren’t usually eligible for money from the U.S. Small Business Administration. But as the economy plummeted and jobless rates soared, Congress let faith groups and other nonprofits tap into the Paycheck Protection Program, a $659 billion fund created to keep Main Street open and Americans employed.

By aggressively promoting the payroll program and marshaling resources to help affiliates navigate its shifting rules, Catholic dioceses, parishes, schools and other ministries have so far received approval for at least 3,500 forgivable loans, AP found.

[pErvinalia]

I noticed you did but would you include the USA with the first world countries with the present political corruption going on there. Looking at Nine's post with figures like that being bantered around. You cant ignore the political angle on the figures with governments and local authorities openly admitting their mistakes. Brazil is claiming almost 2 million cases when has not got a clue how many people live in the country. A country Kyrgyzstan (where that is?) clams to have more cases than Australia. Sorry but they look about as realistic as the number of Lotto winners.

You seem to be implying that the real numbers are less than those stated. Every report I've read suggests the opposite; actual numbers are higher. Do you think Bolsonaro in Brazil is going to artificially inflate the numbers of something he dismisses as of minor importance?

The mistake you are making Jim is in thinking that Scot thinks. He simply doesn't. He has views, and his mind is made up on them. No amount of evidence or reasoning will change his mind.