The Coronavirus Thread

[pErvinalia]

They mean normal as in pre-pandemic. Emerging variants isn't normal in that context.

[Sean Hayden]

Of course variants are normal. It's a virus, it's global. We will see new variants all the time now.

[pErvinalia]

Do you understand what they meant by 'normal'? I just explained it to you.

[Sean Hayden]

Do you hear yourself?

"Emergent variants aren't normal in the context of the pre-pandemic."

Uh, you mean before the emergence of covid?

Before there was a virus there were no new versions of the virus and that's what they mean by normal...

--touches rEv for a contact high

[aufbahrung]

What's the logic behind calling it Omicorn? Lucky name from a hat or something more sinister the bods at the centre of the storm alone know?

[JimC]

They are not only normal, but unavoidable.

Again, I'm not hearing anything about what you expect or want with regards to when it is appropriate to return to normal.

If you wish to be bothered by variants you may do so for the rest of your life, as will anyone working in the field.

It's not fear or paranoia, Sean. It is simply a rational reflection on the possibility that new variants (such as Omicron) may require certain actions to prevent further waves of cases and deaths. These may include vaccine manufacturers tweaking their vaccines to cope, governments stocking up on the range of new pills which can mitigate the worst effects, pushing even harder for better vaccine coverage (including boosters) and, if really necessary, small-scale lockdowns and mask mandates in some areas.

This is not being "bothered by variants", it is a cool and measured analysis of the potential danger, and ways to mitigate it. To wistfully proclaim that everything is back to normal is rather ostrich-like...

[JimC]

Some further information about the new variant:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-26/ ... /100653546

There is still a lot of research that needs to be done, but scientists are alarmed by the number of changes in this variant's genetic code.

It's normal for viruses to mutate over time, so scientists pay close attention when those changes alter how the virus behaves.

Professor Edward Holmes, who studies the emergence of infectious diseases, said the fact that this variant is so distinct from other variants is a worry.

"It is definitely a serious concern," he said.

"It has mutations throughout the spike protein that might make it able to evade immune responses."

Tulio de Oliveira, a bioinformatician with South Africa's Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation, said at a public briefing that the new variant had a "very unusual constellation of mutations".

He explained that scientists had picked up more than 30 changes just to the spike protein, 10 of which could alter the part of the virus that binds to human cells.

The Beta variant had three mutations to this part, and Delta just two, he said.

What's worrying about this is that vaccines — our best defence against COVID-19 — work by teaching our body to recognise and disable these parts of the virus.

If they change too much, our immune systems might not notice them until it's too late and we are badly infected.

As Professor Tulio de Oliveira explained, some of the changes have been seen before and scientists know how they affect the virus's behaviour, but others have only been rarely seen.

"So the full significance is still uncertain," he said.

From another ABC article:

"This new variant of the COVID-19 virus is very worrying. It is the most heavily mutated version of the virus we have seen to date," said Lawrence Young, a virologist at Britain's University of Warwick.

"Some of the mutations that are similar to changes we've seen in other variants of concern are associated with enhanced transmissibility and with partial resistance to immunity induced by vaccination or natural infection."

[aufbahrung]

Gonna be top dog variant. The only question that isn't answered, at least publicly, is the mortality. But if its been crafted from untreated AIDS people then I'm guesstemating mortality might be a drag? Best hope I'm wrong but something I read on my google sleuthing...

[Sean Hayden]

Bullshit Jim. Regurgitating the latest article about the latest variant isn't cool headed analysis.

If you've done some analysis then present some thoughts on what you're looking for before returning to normal.

Otherwise I'll just assume you're caught up in the trend of following this thing, fine. But I won't be taking every announcement to be further cause for supporting restrictions.

No, that's not burying my head in the sand either.

Hospitals aren't overwhelmed here. The overwhelming majority of hospitalizations are unvaccinated. The risk to kids is very low, nevermind vaccinated kids. We are all vaccinated and boosted -- our risk is therefore low, having a low risk relative to living in general is what I consider a rational basis for returning to normal.

What are you looking for?

[JimC]

Not bullshit at all!

The scientists who study such variants are not running around saying the sky is falling, they are doing exactly as they should do. The initial data suggests potential dangers; of course, that may or may not turn out to be the case. But I want all the responsible authorities working very hard to get the facts on this variant, because if it is able to break the containment lines of vaccination, we would be in a shit-load of trouble.

You seem fixated on the need to "get back to normal". Well, here that is happening to a fair degree as well, and we welcome the freedoms we can have but no one should rule out having to take measures if a future variant starts killing people at an accelerated rate...

[Sean Hayden]

Sure. Let the experts work till they drop, it's what they like.

If that's all you mean fine.

But I'll remind you I responded to a nuke -- and a comment wishing for more lock downs!

I want to know what these people are looking for.

[JimC]

I don't want more lockdowns, but there could be scenarios in particular places where they would be the best rational move to save lives. In the long run, continual tweaking of mRNA vaccines to maintain their efficacy against emerging variants is going to be critical - we will almost certainly reach a situation where at least once a year, we get a jab to maintain our immunity at optimum levels.

[pErvinalia]

Do you hear yourself?

"Emergent variants aren't normal in the context of the pre-pandemic."

Uh, you mean before the emergence of covid?

Before there was a virus there were no new versions of the virus and that's what they mean by normal...

Normal as in normal. No need for social distancing, no need for masks, no need for QR code check in, no lockdowns, less fear of dying from a transmissible disease.

[aufbahrung]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/1 ... is-whitty/

Then he would say that either way...to calm the toilet roll panic, and put the muggers/rioters into a false sense of hope before they die of omicron

[Sean Hayden]

Do you hear yourself?

"Emergent variants aren't normal in the context of the pre-pandemic."

Uh, you mean before the emergence of covid?

Before there was a virus there were no new versions of the virus and that's what they mean by normal...

Normal as in normal. No need for social distancing, no need for masks, no need for QR code check in, no lockdowns, less fear of dying from a transmissible disease.

Yeah, that's the normal we're talking about.

"What are you looking for" before returning to normal?